Archives > Kentucky Derby

Genuine Risk, 1977-2008
Only two days after Proud Spell very likely clinched this year's filly championship comes the news that Genuine Risk, the champion filly of 1980, died in her Virginia paddock this morning. Genuine Risk won 10 of her 15 career starts, including the Demoiselle and Ruffian Handicap, and never finished worse than third (PDF), but what earned the chestnut mare with the distinctive blaze her fame was being the second filly to win the Kentucky Derby: She remains the only filly to have finished in the money in every Triple Crown race, placing four lengths behind Codex in the Preakness after...
[Posted August 18, 2008 2:00 PM]
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Tuesday Afternoon Notes
- Although several of my conversations since Saturday have been about the Kentucky Derby, impressive Big Brown and his connections, Eight Belles and her sad end, I've barely posted anything in this space. I tend to shut up when everyone else is shouting, which I suppose makes me a lousy blogger, but it seems so unnecessary to jump in when so many other sensible people are making the same points I would: Gender had nothing to do with Eight Belles' breakdown, jockey Gabriel Saez is not to blame (regardless of what uninformed spokespeople for fringe groups say), racing is not...
[Posted May 6, 2008 3:30 PM]
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Internal Dialogue
In the two years since Barbaro broke down in the Preakness Stakes, there have been seven breakdowns on racing's biggest days: Barbaro, Fleet Indian, Pine Island, Mending Fences, George Washington, Chelokee, and Eight Belles. That's seven breakdowns on national television, but I didn't need the boob tube to bring me the visuals. I saw all of them live. A lot of people reach a breaking point when it comes to seeing animals suffer in this sport. Some haven't watched a race since Ruffian or Go For Wand or Barbaro. For others, maybe Eight Belles was the last straw. I'll be...
[Posted May 5, 2008 12:18 PM]
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Just the Numbers
Kentucky Derby contenders, graphed according to their Derby and prep race BSFs. Big Brown, in blue here, floats above the competition. Click to view larger image. Listed in order of finish; KD-B=Derby BSF, PR-B=previous BSF, D+/-=difference between KD-B and PR-B. The final time for the Kentucky Derby was 2:01.82, for which Big Brown was given a Beyer speed figure of 109 (about average for the Derby). Fractions for the race break down into times of :23.30, :23.74, :24.10, :25.42, and :25.26. According to Formulator, Big Brown's splits were :23.57, :23.94, :24.30, :24.75, and :25.26. Hardly spectacular -- no records...
[Posted May 4, 2008 3:45 PM]
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Sadness
Big Brown was ultra impressive, but tough to get too excited after what happened to Eight Belles....
[Posted May 3, 2008 6:25 PM]
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The Tickets
With Jessica and I both bullish on the Arkansas Derby, it only makes sense that we would combine our efforts in the hopes of hitting the tri. We're playing Gayego w/ Colonel John and Z Fortune w/ ALL and Gayego w/ ALL w/ Colonel John and Z Fortune. We'll also back those tickets up by playing Colonel John and Z Fortune on top with Gayego keyed in the second and third spots. We're betting $60 each on getting Gayego plus at least CJ or Z Fortune to hit the board, but when two people share an opinion on a 20-to-1...
[Posted May 3, 2008 1:04 PM]
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Blinkers Off - Saturday
Special Railbird correspondent Blinkers Off checks in from the backstretch. Today at Churchill ... Walk past the throng of hawkers every single step at Churchill Downs and, lo and behold, who do we happen on in the lobby on the Gate 1 entry? John Hennegan waving copies of "The First Saturday In May" like a guy selling programs at Shea Stadium. It made you wonder if Francis Ford Coppola ever stood in a lobby with a clutch of DVDs shouting, "Godfather! Get your Godfather!" One of the highlights of the week in Louisville was lucking into Manny Ehrlich -- "Manny...
[Posted May 3, 2008 12:45 PM]
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Derby Best Bets
Since a large number of people seem to be landing on Railbird this morning via a Google search for "Kentucky Derby best bets," I offer a few for your consideration: Most conventionally prepared: Z Fortune. The Steve Asmussen-trained colt comes into Derby with three prep races, a triple-digit speed figure, a second-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, and six career starts. Most likely to win: Colonel John. Winner of the Sham and the Santa Anita Derby. Worked a bullet five furlongs over the Churchill dirt, has the pedigree, a solid foundation, and a level-headed trainer handling things. If the track...
[Posted May 3, 2008 10:50 AM]
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Track Conditions
A sloppy main track and a yielding turf course will greet the day's initial runners, but everyone thinks the Derby surface will be "fast" come 6 p.m....
[Posted May 3, 2008 10:22 AM]
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Derby Day Notes
- The early Beyer speed figure assigned to Proud Spell's Oaks victory is 99, which means the filly basically returned to the form she displayed at the Fair Grounds earlier this year, none the worse for her third-place finish in the Ashland. I'm sure Pyro supporters will take heart from this -- I'm willing to bet I'll have such a conversation with Dana at Belmont this afternoon -- but I'd caution that even if Pyro returns to his pre-Blue Grass level in the Derby, that still puts him about 10 lengths behind the winner. - Track superintendent Butch Lehr kept...
[Posted May 3, 2008 9:30 AM]
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Sounds of Derby Day
Traffic snarling. Crowds gathering. Helicopters chopping. "Who do you like today?" "Horsemen, please bring your horses to the paddock for the tenth race." "My Old Kentucky Home" "And they're off in the Kentucky Derby!"...
[Posted May 3, 2008 9:23 AM]
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Even Steven
Save for the exacta in the ninth race I've come up with squadouche today. I hardly even had the sniff of a thrill most of the day, but I think this last race presents tremendous value in #9 Persistent Penny at 6-to-1. I have to play her to win at that price, but I might get jazzy underneath since #5 Tates Queen is 9-to-1. The others who figure are #4 Great Thought, #7 Light Showers, and #10 Splendorella....
[Posted May 2, 2008 6:17 PM]
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I Wish the Hits
... wouldn't keep coming. Minutes after Chelokee was vanned off the track, word came through in the press box that Legendary Racing Hall of Fame trainer Frank Whiteley died. Stronach, Frankel, and Bejarano, winners of the Louisville Handicap and the Alysheba are the only ones having a good day, I think. Racing is always funny that way. It's such a tremendous accomplishment to win a stakes race, and it's tough to balance good cheer for connections with proper respect for bad circumstances. RIP, Frank Whiteley, and godspeed Chelokee, who is en route to Rood and Riddle in Lexington after suffering...
[Posted May 2, 2008 4:28 PM]
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Committing
Enough handicapping, it's time for me to commit to my top Derby picks: Gayego, Colonel John, Z Fortune, Eight Belles, Smooth Air. No analysis; I've spent so much time with the past performances and reading the opinions of others these past couple days that I've been stricken with a case of writer's block on the subject. I'll be back later, though, with details of the ticket that Ed and I are splitting....
[Posted May 2, 2008 4:25 PM]
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Pall
Well, if the rain wasn't enough to cast a pall over the Oaks crowd, then certainly Chelokee's breakdown did little to help the mood. The fact that it was Matz on Derby weekend with a horse who won the Barbaro Stakes only adds to drama of the situation. I think of these incidents and of Little Cliff, and it breaks my heart....
[Posted May 2, 2008 4:08 PM]
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Rain Vodka
The skies opened up shortly before 2 p.m., and it wasn't a drizzle either, it was a straight up downpour. The good thing about that kind of weather is that it usually moves through. I think it will be dry in sky by Oaks, but not sure about fast on the track. Those in the infield haven't really enjoyed the rain, but dissatisfaction is not limited to the hoi palloi. Millionaire's Row 6 (Mill six as it's called at Churchill) is out of vodka, and the people with tickets in that area overlooking the finish line under the roof are...
[Posted May 2, 2008 2:04 PM]
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Blinkers Off - Friday
Special Railbird correspondent Blinkers Off checks in from the backstretch. Today at Churchill ... Intrigue was bound to raise its ugly head as word began to get around, reportedly via Kent Desormeaux's agent, that Paulo Lobo had taken Gayego out early Thursday morning onto the pavement, the assumption being that any foot problems would show up on the hard surface. Gayego did not go to the track Thursday morning, heightening speculation something was wrong. Lobo insisted that he planned on giving Gayego the day off all along. Friday morning, Gayego was out at 6:15 and jogged a mile then galloped...
[Posted May 2, 2008 12:45 PM]
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Estimated Post-Time Odds
Ed sends along his estimated Derby post-time odds: Over on Thoroughbredblog, Michael posts the advance wagering odds, which he plans to update through the day. Eight Belles is taking early money, Gayego is not ......
[Posted May 2, 2008 12:40 PM]
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Let the Revels Begin
The Derby is still 33 hours away, but it seems closer than that. They, whoever that is, say that the rain will come overnight and in the morning. It's windy, but dry. It's time to start really thinking about wagering strategy here. I'm not using Big Brown or Colonel John on top, and I think some horses can crash the board at a big price. I don't think the top seven will be too strung out turning for home, so missing third by a length and finishing sixth isn't out of the question. Hopefully my price horses are the ones...
[Posted May 2, 2008 9:51 AM]
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Blinkers Off - Thursday
Special Railbird correspondent Blinkers Off checks in from the backstretch. Today at Churchill ... So, the horsemen think they're getting a bad deal from Churchill Downs with the splits on the advanced-deposit wagering sites like Twinspires.com? How about the track's employees who are being told to park off-site this week at the University of Louisville football stadium and then pay $10 for shuttle bus service to their own jobs? As everyone tuned in knows, Big Brown blew out this morning, three furlongs in :35 2/5, and he looked like he was doing his best to back up every bragging word...
[Posted May 1, 2008 2:00 PM]
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Big Brown Headstrong
I returned to Churchill for the first time since Sunday on Thursday afternoon, and the air has changed. Whereas Louisville was excited for the return of live racing last weekend, the focus has wholly shifted to the Kentucky Derby two days before the race. Churchill had a great crowd on the front and backsides this morning to watch horses prepare, and of course all eyes were on Big Brown, who worked three furlongs in :35.40 shortly after the renovation break. Dutrow was hoping for a move between 36 and 37 seconds, calling it "important" that Big Brown hit that mark....
[Posted May 1, 2008 8:46 AM]
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Kentucky Derby Field
PPHorseJockeyML1Cool Coal ManLeparoux20-12 Tale of EkatiCoa15-13Anak NakalBejarano30-14Court VisionGomez20-15Eight BellesSaez15-16Z FortuneAlbarado30-17 Big TruckCastellano50-18VisionaireLezcano20-19PyroBridgmohan6-110Colonel JohnNakatani4-111Z HumorDouglas30-112Smooth AirCruz20-113Bob Black JackMigliore20-114MonbaDominguez15-115AdrianoPrado30-116Denis of CorkBorel20-117Cowboy CalVelazquez20-118RecapturethegloryBaird20-119GayegoSmith15-120Big BrownDesormeaux3-1...
[Posted April 30, 2008 6:00 PM]
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Blinkers Off - Wednesday
Special Railbird correspondent Blinkers Off checks in from the backstretch. Today at Churchill ... Graham Motion, a great guy but not exactly a human quote machine, has one good line this week for reporters about Adriano and he's sticking to it: "I must be the only trainer in the world with an A.P. Indy that can't run on dirt."... Speaking of one-liners, Henny Youngman used to have a good one about racing. "I once bet on a horse that was so slow, I saw him turn around and say to the jockey, 'Whaddya hittin' me for, there's nobody behind us."...
[Posted April 30, 2008 2:00 PM]
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Speed to the Outside
Is there any doubt? Recapturetheglory, Gayego, and Big Brown will be among the final five assigned a spot in the gate. Here's the order in which connections will select post positions in the Kentucky Derby draw, which will be shown on ESPN2 beginning at 5:00 p.m. ET today: #HorseTrainerJockey1VisionaireMatzLezcano2Big TruckTaggCastellano3Colonel JohnHartyNakatani4Z FortuneAsmussenAlbarado5PyroAsmussenBridgmohan6Eight BellesJonesSaez7Anak NakalZitoBejarano8Court VisionMottGomez9Z HumorMottDouglas10MonbaPletcherDominguez11Smooth AirStuttsCruz12AdrianoMotionPrado13Bob Black JackKasparoffMigliore14Denis of CorkCarrollBorel15Cowboy CalPletcherVelazquez16Big BrownDutrowDesormeaux17Tale of EkatiTaggCoa18Cool Coal ManZitoLeparoux19RecapturethegloryRousselBaird20GayegoLoboSmith Trainer Larry Jones is in a sweet spot with Eight Belles. As the sixth to select, he'll have no problem netting his big gray filly an agreeable post....
[Posted April 30, 2008 11:30 AM]
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Wednesday Morning Notes
- Post positions for the Kentucky Derby will be drawn later this afternoon and handicapping will begin in earnest soon after. Stats are always a big part of figuring the Derby and everyone has their favorite angles. Superfecta, a fan of the Courier-Journal Data Track, pays attention to the proven ability to handle traffic factor. Dean Keppler, writing on the Rail, looks for triple-digit speed figures and key prep races. And for a thorough assessment, look to the 20/20 Derby Vision system developed by Kennedy. I'll add to the stats overload tomorrow, when I finally delve into my Derby Profiles...
[Posted April 30, 2008 10:45 AM]
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Black Is the New Black
It didn't take long after the Florida Derby for people to start decreeing Big Brown "this year's Bellamy Road." He's also this year's Indian Charlie, this year's Pulpit, and this year's Curlin. "Big Brown is this year's Bellamy Road" is this year's "This is a wide open field" or "This is a weak crop." Other horses evoke memories of other horses, too. Just yesterday someone said that Colonel John is this year's Prime Timber. That's not bad, but I think of him more as this year's Afleet Alex (especially if Big Brown is this year's Bellamy Road). It pains me...
[Posted April 29, 2008 3:04 PM]
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Blinkers Off - Tuesday
Special Railbird correspondent Blinkers Off checks in from the backstretch. Today at Churchill ... Rick Dutrow and Big Brown are unquestionably the stars of this Kentucky Derby. Not only did Dutrow have the lone formal press conference scheduled Tuesday, the location was changed as well, leaving several veteran Derby reporters scrambling. "How are we supposed to know these things?" asked one, who happened to fortunately be standing in the media center where it had been moved to. "Word of mouth," she was told ... Dutrow, wearing a "Palm Meadows" cap and a down vest over a hoodie (temperatures were in...
[Posted April 29, 2008 1:30 PM]
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Graphing the Contenders
Following up on my earlier study on the BSF patterns of past Kentucky Derby fields, I graphed the prep race BSF patterns of the top 20 Derby contenders this year: Click to enlarge. A caveat: Beyer speed figures are merely tools and not necessarily comparable across surfaces, and figures earned solely on turf and synthetics (such as those for Colonel John and Cowboy Cal) indicate little how those horses will perform on dirt. Still, I find the visual representation useful -- it makes clear that Gayego is a real contender, that Tale of Ekati may be improving but is too...
[Posted April 29, 2008 10:45 AM]
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Tuesday Morning Notes
- At Churchill: Tale of Ekati worked four furlongs in :49.40 ("nothing dramatic") over the main track. Halo Najib, #21 on the earnings list, worked five furlongs in 1:05 over the turf. - Dutrow's plan: "After winning the Derby, Big Brown will go to Baltimore, win the Preakness, and then claim the Triple Crown with a win in the Belmont." If only winning the Triple Crown were that easy; I'm sure we would have had a winner or two in the past 30 years. [Addendum: Joe Drape reports today that Dutrow, now at Churchill, is more subdued.] - Of course,...
[Posted April 29, 2008 10:30 AM]
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That'll Be a Lot
... of disappointed connections come 6:08 p.m. Saturday if Big Brown doesn't win: According to Schiavo, the party of Derbygoers connected to the horse now numbers 102, with a tent in the infield and 10 boxes set up for the giant group. The likely Derby favorite arrived at Churchill this afternoon....
[Posted April 28, 2008 8:05 PM]
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Getting the Trip
In 133 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the winner has been in the lead or within a half-length of the lead at the stretch call of the race in 116 of those races (7/8!). More recently, only Giacomo in the past six years has not gotten that trip. Even Street Sense, with his big move up the rail from 19th, was already in the lead by the stretch call of the race. Other recent aberrations to this rule are Monarchos and Charismatic. Given that Charismatic and Giacomo were gigantic bombs and the Monarchos win came in the year of the...
[Posted April 28, 2008 4:42 PM]
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Denis of Cork In
Lexington winner Behindatthebar will skip the Derby and point to the Preakness, trainer Todd Pletcher announced this morning, which means Denis of Cork slips off the bubble and solidly into spot #20 on the graded earnings list. "We're excited," said trainer David Carroll of the news. "The horse is here, we feel he belongs in the race with him doing as well as he is" (DRF). Jockey Calvin Borel, who will ride the colt in the Derby, was in the saddle this morning when Denis of Cork worked four furlongs in :48 at Churchill and had nothing but good to...
[Posted April 28, 2008 11:40 AM]
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Monday Morning Notes
- Derby works: At Churchill, Big Truck breezed a bullet five furlongs in :59.40; Z Fortune, reportedly looking magnificent this weekend, worked four furlongs in a slow :51; at the same distance, Visionaire went :48.40 ("under some pressure") and Bob Black Jack :48.60 (with rider Richard Migliore up). Pyro also worked this morning, without company, breezing four furlongs in :49.80 over the track. - After missing two days of training due to fever, Smooth Air returned to the track on Sunday. Trainer Bennie Stutts said the colt would gallop for the remainder of the week, which means his his final...
[Posted April 28, 2008 9:30 AM]
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Scrutiny (or how to embrace minutia)
One of my favorite moments of "First Saturday of May" is when Kentucky Derby week finally arrives, and the camera shows trainer Michael Matz going through his daily routine. Then we pan out and see an onslaught of press watching Matz's and Barbaro's every move. My wife gasped at the sight of the media crush, and I heard similar whispers from throughout the theater. Heck, I knew it was coming, and it even surprised me. When you go from quiet mornings at Fair Hill to Derby week, you're not in Kansas anymore as the saying goes. Scoops are hard to...
[Posted April 27, 2008 9:24 PM]
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Doubts Dispelled
Reports of Colonel John's disdain for dirt may have been exaggerated. The Tiznow colt worked five furlongs in :57.61 and galloped out six furlongs in 1:10.99 over the fast Churchill track. "At the moment it doesn't look like the work took a lot out of him," said trainer Eoin Harty. "He got a good blow but he appears to be well back to himself" (DRF). Also on the worktab were Adriano (five furlongs in 1:00.80), Court Vision, Z Humor, and Eight Belles. I'll leave it to Ed to report from the scene on how everyone looked....
[Posted April 27, 2008 3:15 PM]
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Fillies' Plans Confirmed
Update from Ed at Churchill: Proud Spell is definite for the Oaks, while Eight Belles will be cross-entered in the Oaks and the Derby, as planned, but only posts 19 or 20 would have owner Rick Porter and trainer Larry Jones thinking about scratching and "even then they might still run." The defection of Proud Spell moves Bob Black Jack into the field and leaves Denis of Cork on the outside, with his connections hoping for one more dropout before Wednesday....
[Posted April 27, 2008 10:05 AM]
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First Look
Things were kind of slow on the backside of Churchill Downs Saturday morning, as many horsemen played cat and mouse with the weather. Overnight rains rendered the main track muddy, and of the Derby probables, only Gayego worked under the sometimes ominous-sometimes welcoming watch of the Twin Spires (Monba and Cowboy Cal worked at Keeneland). I'm not one for getting into how horses look. My strengths as a handicapper come from reading charts and pedigree analysis. That said, I think I've seen enough horses at various stages of their careers and seen enough races that I can identify extremes. That...
[Posted April 26, 2008 9:31 PM]
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Big Brown Madness
Derby week begins and all perspective is lost. In Florida still, trainer Rick Dutrow is full of bravado: "Until somebody shows me the beast, this is not a tough horse race," Dutrow said in a typical recent interview. "I'm training this horse for a horse race; I don't care what the name of it is. I feel he's the best horse in the race -- I feel he's going to win the race. Anything else is going to be extremely disappointing to me." And he's not alone is his feelings about Big Brown's Derby chances. Bill Finley agrees: Big Brown...
[Posted April 26, 2008 11:45 AM]
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Smooth Air Spikes Fever
Florida Derby runner-up Smooth Air spiked a fever Thursday and has lost two days of training time. In a press conference this morning, trainer Bennie Stutts said the colt is getting antibiotics and that he is expected to return to the track on Sunday, but that if the situation isn't resolved by Monday, Smooth Air could be out: "Right now , he is doing much better," Stutts said. "He is bright and eating. "If he is not 100%, he will not run in the Derby. No one wants to run in the derby more than me." Smooth Air's defection would...
[Posted April 26, 2008 9:35 AM]
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Drive Time
An event as rich in tradition as the Kentucky Derby is sure to have plenty of ancillary traditions as well. Some, like tomorrow's running races or the Great Balloon Race are shared experiences. Others are personal. One such experience for me that kicks off Derby week is the drive from my home in Lexington to Louisville. Chasing the setting Sun heading west on Interstate 64 I pass Thoroughbred farms of Midway and Georgetown. There are a few mares with their foals out, and it's hard not to think about those babies arriving in Louisville in 2011. One of my favorite...
[Posted April 25, 2008 11:30 PM]
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Friday Morning Notes
- Jockey Gabe Saez will ride Eight Belles if she goes in the Kentucky Derby, said trainer Larry Jones. The filly will be entered in both the Oaks and the Derby, with the decision for which race she starts in resting on the post position draw. - Brad Free rethinks likely Derby favorites Colonel John and Big Brown: "The closer one examines their last starts, the less appealing they become" (DRF+). - Del Mar will water its Polytrack this summer. "Our goal is to lessen the difference between afternoon and morning," said racing director Tom Robbins (DRF). Horsemen complained last...
[Posted April 25, 2008 10:00 AM]
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All Quiet at Churchill
Not much going on with the Oaks starters or the likely Derby contenders. Cool Coal Man was the only one to work at Churchill Downs this morning, going four furlongs in :47.51 in company with stablemate Chris Got Even. The day's most exciting action happened at Palm Meadows, where Big Brown breezed through five furlongs in :58.60, delighting trainer Rick Dutrow. "I just can't believe he went that fast. He looked like he was galloping along when he went past me" (ThoroTimes). Big Brown ships to Churchill on Monday....
[Posted April 24, 2008 5:30 PM]
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Still Adjusting to Dirt
Mike Welsch observes Colonel John on the Churchill dirt and notes some hesitancy in the California colt's action: Colonel John had his second opportunity to try the Churchill Downs strip on a warm, sun-drenched morning shortly after the renovation break on Wednesday. And while the gallop went without incident, Colonel John, a well-made son of Tiznow, gave the appearance he still might not be completely comfortable over the surface. He strode along more like he was still testing and acclimating himself to the new footing rather than reaching out, as one would expect he usually does over familiar ground back...
[Posted April 23, 2008 9:45 PM]
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Tale of Ekati, Going Easily
- Tale of Ekati breezed five furlongs in 1:00.20 at Keeneland this morning. Clockers noted the Barclay Tagg trainee was "going easily at the wire, galloped out 113.2" (video). On Tuesday, Visionaire and Big Truck worked over the synthetic surface, while at Churchill, Halo Najib worked four furlongs in :50.40 over the firm turf course. - It's the last week of racing at Aqueduct and I'm sure I'm not the only one looking forward to the change of scene that comes with Belmont's opening. The move from inner dirt to main track signals spring and refreshes the meet, but not...
[Posted April 23, 2008 2:00 PM]
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Who's in your five?
I thought I'd piggyback on Jessica's post to A) introduce myself and B) post my own Derby five as of Tuesday night. My name is Ed DeRosa, and I am news editor of Thoroughbred Times. More importantly for the purpose of this exercise, I am a race fan and avid bettor who thoroughly enjoys many of the racing-related blogs both in and out of the TBA. I'm a frequent reader/commenter on Railbird, Handride, Thoroughbredblog, Cristblog, and on the Thorograph forum. I have enjoyed the dialog and now look forward to dissecting the Derby with Jessica and her readers. I'll be...
[Posted April 22, 2008 8:59 PM]
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Derby 5 - April 22
1. Big Brown: What can I say? The giddy confidence expressed by trainer Rick Dutrow in the NTRA teleconference this afternoon was infectious. Big Brown has the speed; he just has to beat history. 2. Colonel John: Santa Anita Derby winner ships to Churchill without incident. Trainer Eoin Harty warns, "If you ignore the synthetic races, you ignore them at your peril." 3. Gayego: Arkansas Derby winner is exhibit #1 backing up Harty's contention. 4. Z Fortune: Trainer Steve Asmussen's sleeper starter. 5. Eight Belles: Probably belongs in the Oaks, but I'd love to see her try the Derby....
[Posted April 22, 2008 4:30 PM]
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Tuesday Morning Notes
- Trainer Larry Jones said Proud Spell has only a 15 percent chance of entering the Derby. Salute the Sarge is also likely out, which bumps Bob Black Jack up into the field, and puts Tomcito tantalizingly close to a post. - Pyro breezed six furlongs at Keeneland in company with stakes winner Noonmark, but no official time was given due to dense fog that obscured the track. "He worked well, but there was no way of knowing how fast he went," said assistant trainer Scott Blasi. "[Clockers] wanted to make up times, this or that, but there was no...
[Posted April 22, 2008 7:45 AM]
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Weekend Odds & Ends
- Mr. Railbird and I joined the hipster hordes at Brooklyn Flea this afternoon, lured by the promise of Wafels & Dinges (delicious) and the possibility of sports memorabilia (non-existent), although I did find a postcard of Suburban Day at Sheepshead Bay (above) at the stand of a vintage postcard purveyor. The card was mailed by one Mae Sterling of Brooklyn to A. F. Rockwell of New Haven (with the request to "Please send one in return") not long after the 1905 renewal of the Suburban Handicap, which was won by the great racemare Beldame, who conceded weight to...
[Posted April 20, 2008 10:45 PM]
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Big Brown Works
- Likely Derby favorite Big Brown breezed five furlongs in 1:00.60 and galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.40 at Palm Meadows on Friday morning. Trainer Rick Dutrow called the move "beautiful," clockers described it as "workmanlike." Big Brown will work at Palm Meadows once more, then ship to Churchill on April 28. Paul Moran notes that the trainer is keeping his horse in Florida partly for consideration of Big Brown's feet, which Dutrow reports are now problem-free. - Sounds like War Pass is still tired from his second-place finish in the Wood. "I think anybody could see it was a...
[Posted April 18, 2008 11:55 PM]
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Refining the Entry List
Steven Crist supports a points system for Kentucky Derby entries, writing in his DRF+ column: You can't mandate that tracks standardize purses to match up to grades, but a point system rather than an earnings tally could effectively accomplish that -- something like 9, 6, and 3 points for the first three finishers in a Grade 1 race, 6-4-2 for a Grade 2, and 3-2-1 for a Grade 3 would be more fair than the current earnings system. This also opens the possibility of weighting 3-year-old races more strongly than 2-year-old races instead of giving horses as much credit for...
[Posted April 18, 2008 8:10 PM]
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Visions of Roses
- Court Vision, wearing blinkers, breezed four furlongs in :46.20 at Churchill this morning, and even though Steve Haskin didn't catch the work, he saw something special: This is when the roses began to burst. Court Vision went a half in :46 1/5 breezing, galloping out five-eighths in about 1:00 3/5 under exercise rider Neil Poznanski. The work was the fastest of 25 at the distance and a full second faster than the second fastest work. Another clocker caught him in :45 and change. When a horse of this quality undergoes such a dramatic change, especially at Churchill Downs, where...
[Posted April 17, 2008 10:00 PM]
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Wednesday Evening Notes
- Edgar Prado chooses to ride Adriano in the Kentucky Derby over Monba and Tale of Ekati. "Obviously I'm thrilled, not only that Edgar's riding him, but that, in doing so, he's endorsing the horse," said trainer Graham Motion (DRF). Ramon Dominguez picks up the mount on Monba. - So true: "The Derby is so popular that everybody wants to participate," said trainer Todd Pletcher. "The whole earnings thing has so much more focus that people no longer feel like they have to justify being there, that the graded earnings justify it for the horse" (Courier-Journal). Maybe there should be...
[Posted April 16, 2008 7:00 PM]
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This Isn't Derby Fever ...
It's madness: Trainer Eric Guillot was refreshingly candid during an April 15 teleconference hosted by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, calling his horse "one of the 15 who might not belong," but saying a trip to the Kentucky Derby ... is definitely under consideration for Salute the Sarge. Guillot further said Salute the Sarge -- a fine sprinter who's won 4 of 7 starts at distances ranging from 5 to 6 1/2 furlongs -- could be used as a rabbit, and that he just wants to find out how good his horse is in a route: "Even though he's bred...
[Posted April 15, 2008 8:30 PM]
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Derby 8 - April 15
1. Colonel John: Moves to the top of the list after last weekend's preps. Worked four furlongs in :47.40 over the Santa Anita main track on Monday. Trainer Eoin Harty plans to ship the colt to Churchill next week. 2. Big Brown: Still a little hung up on his feet and inexperience, but he does have speed. 3. Gayego: Ran the final eighth in :12.68 after chasing quick early fractions in the Arkansas Derby. 4. Z Fortune: Cycling back into form? Can't say he's not bred for the distance or lacks preparation. 5. Tale of Ekati: Wood winner looks better...
[Posted April 15, 2008 5:45 PM]
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Synth to Dirt, No Problem
A little breakfast time research yields this nugget: Of the 460 nominees to the Triple Crown, 61 have made the switch from a synthetic surface to a fast dirt track. Of those, 47* improved or replicated their synthetic form on dirt. Will the California form of Colonel John and Bob Black Jack hold up at Churchill? The odds look good it will. [*Details in this Google doc. Note: Only horses who raced primarily on synthetics at the start of their careers and who switched from such a surface to a fast dirt track are included (so those whose single dirt...
[Posted April 15, 2008 8:00 AM]
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Pyro "Didn't Do Enough"
- Pyro came out of his tenth-place finish as the even-money favorite in Saturday's Blue Grass "bright-eyed and looking full of run," which has trainer Steve Asmussen concerned the colt didn't get enough out of his final Kentucky Derby prep and prompting a change to Pyro's training. Bill Finley reports the colt will get some competition in his next work: "I'm definitely worried that he didn't do enough in the Blue Grass," Asmussen said. "I would have worked him by himself. Now, his next work will definitely be in company. I just can't look at the Blue Grass as a...
[Posted April 14, 2008 9:30 AM]
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Gayego, Monba Move Up
The earnings list and prep race results chart are updated and Arkansas Derby winner Gayego assumes a new prominence on both, moving to #5 with $640,000 in graded stakes earnings and scoring a Beyer speed figure of 103 for his first try on dirt. The effort suggests this year's California Derby contingent is strong, making Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John look all the better. Monba, well down on the graded earnings list before Saturday, is now headed to the Derby with $515,000 and a 92 Beyer for winning the Blue Grass, as is stablemate and Blue Grass runner-up Cowboy...
[Posted April 13, 2008 12:00 PM]
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Friday Morning Notes
- Bob Ike finds the Derby picture crystal clear: "This year's Kentucky Derby winner will be one of the following three horses: BIG BROWN, COLONEL JOHN or PYRO. Period, end of discussion." - Big news in the bloodstock world: Auction house Fasig-Tipton will be sold to Synergy, a Dubai-based company headed by an associate of Sheikh Mohammed. "Business will continue as usual," said CEO Boyd Browning of the deal, before noting there would be changes (Blood-Horse). - A reminder, in case anyone needs one, that speed figures are subjective. - The on-track fatality rates reported last month at the Racehorse...
[Posted April 11, 2008 10:25 AM]
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Denis of Cork Out?
If it were April 1, I'd think this notice from Denis of Cork's owner William Warren on Paul Moran's blog was a joke, but it looks quite genuine: I take sole responsibility for the decision to run in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. Denis of Cork's poor showing was not due to the jockey, Julien Leparoux, or my trainer, David Carroll. The disaster was my fault alone. I have never made such a bad decision in horse racing as the one I made to take Denis of Cork to Hawthorne. After the race, Suzanne was devastated and I was in...
[Posted April 9, 2008 9:40 PM]
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Wednesday Evening Notes
- Travis Stone points out that Tiznow, sire of Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John, is the leading sire of runners on synthetic surfaces. What he doesn't mention is that Tiznow is second on the overall leading sires list, behind Smart Strike, whose offspring include turf and dirt stars, and that three of the five top sires overall also appear on the synthetic list. Good sires are versatile. - Colonel John was easily the most impressive Kentucky Derby prep winner on Saturday, rallying late and running the final eighth of the nine-furlong race in an even :12 after overcoming a...
[Posted April 9, 2008 7:30 PM]
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Derby Fever in Full Bloom
- Trainer David Carroll is throwing out Denis of Cork's fifth-place finish in the Illinois Derby and will train the colt for a start in the Kentucky Derby. "I have so much confidence in the horse," said Carroll. "I'm not going to make excuses ... [the Illinois Derby] was a nonevent as far as I'm concerned" (Courier-Journal). That Denis of Cork was returning off a seven-week layoff after winning the Southwest Stakes makes the logic of Carroll's statement almost plausible, but the Illinois Derby was Denis of Cork's second and last prep and he showed little. "We had a good...
[Posted April 9, 2008 11:15 AM]
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Derby 8 - April 8
1. Pyro: Solid, consistent Pyro put in his final work for the Blue Grass Stakes on Monday morning, going four furlongs in :50.60 at Keeneland without company. He'll start on Saturday without the pressure of having to win -- although, as Winchell racing manager David Fiske said in the NTRA teleconference on Tuesday, it would be nice to do so. 2. Colonel John: I hope racing analysts and handicappers continue to fret over the Santa Anita Derby winner's lack of dirt-racing experience, because that will make his Derby day odds so much better. By Tiznow, two-time winner of the Breeders'...
[Posted April 8, 2008 10:45 PM]
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Until Monday ...
Tale of Ekati returning to the winner's circle after the Wood. Notes on all the weekend racing coming Monday Tuesday. I've been trying today to take a break from the Internet and all web-connected devices, and made it to 9:00 p.m., when I broke down to check email, RSS feeds, and post this quick note. Check out Dana's fantastic wrap-up of all the Saturday action at Aqueduct. (It's true, I was clambering over the third-floor balcony rail to get a better view of the paddock. I am the Railbird, after all.) A few Beyer speed figures: Recapturetheglory gets the...
[Posted April 6, 2008 9:25 PM]
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Aqueduct Cancels Friday
With rain continuing to fall in New York, NYRA has decided to cancel today's racing at Aqueduct to keep the main track sealed and in condition for the Wood Memorial day card: "The main track is tight, in good shape, but factoring in that it only opened for racing two days ago and that we have Aqueduct's best day of racing tomorrow, we are doing everything we can to ensure optimum racing conditions for our big Wood Memorial Day card," New York Racing Association Racing Secretary and Handicapper P.J. Campo said. "The track is sealed so moisture doesn't soak in....
[Posted April 4, 2008 10:45 AM]
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A Case of Big Brown Mania
Has Mike Brunker in its feverish grip: His scintillating victory in the $1 million Florida Derby on Saturday was not just the most brilliant performance in a Kentucky Derby prep this year, it was one of the best races by a 3-year-old I've seen in the 13 years that I've been covering the Triple Crown. In fact, I'll shinny out even farther out on the limb: This is a colt with the talent to end the 29-year Triple Crown drought as long as his troublesome hooves don't act up and he can overcome his woeful lack of experience to win...
[Posted April 2, 2008 8:52 AM]
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Updated Derby 8
1. Pyro: Overshadowed by Florida Derby winner, but still the early Derby favorite. Worked six furlongs in 1:14.60 at Keeneland on Monday. I'm starting to get excited about Pyro -- he's the one Kentucky Derby prospect who has missed no training time and has done everything right so far. 2. Big Truck: Could start in either the Blue Grass or the Holy Bull, or could train up to the Derby, which would be a knock. 3. Big Brown: A little green, a little foot trouble. Can't deny the major talent displayed in the Florida Derby, though. 4. Denis of Cork:...
[Posted April 1, 2008 10:25 AM]
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Big Dreams for Big Brown
"I'm hoping really to be the next Secretariat," minority owner Allan Farber said. "That's not looking to be too much, is it?" (Palm Beach Post)...
[Posted March 31, 2008 10:00 PM]
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Colonel Works, Georgie Out
- Colonel John, prepping for the Santa Anita Derby, worked six furlongs in 1:10.80 on Monday over the main track. With San Felipe Stakes winner Georgie Boy off the Derby trail with a pulled muscle and earnings-poor Bob Black Jack going to the Blue Grass Stakes, the Santa Anita Derby is shaping up as a rematch between Colonel John and El Gato Malo, the one-two finishers in the Sham Stakes. - Elysium Fields will ship to trainer Barclay Tagg's Keeneland barn this week, but it's unlikely he'll continue on to the Derby following his eleventh-place finish in the Florida Derby....
[Posted March 31, 2008 9:50 PM]
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Big Beyer for Big Brown
- Big Brown's Florida Derby final time of 1:48.16 earns a 106 Beyer speed figure, the best we've seen of any two-turn prep race this season. - There's nothing unusual about two offspring of one sire winning on the same day, but how often does that happen to a broodmare? Both Chelokee and Salute the Sarge, half-brothers out of Dixie Ghost, won on Saturday in their first races off lengthy layoffs. At Gulfstream, making his first start since winning the G3 Northern Dancer at Churchill in June 2007, Chelokee surged through a spot on the rail in the stretch to...
[Posted March 30, 2008 11:00 AM]
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Hot Brown in the Derby
Big Brown wows winning the Florida Derby, secures Kentucky Derby post with $600,000 in earnings. The hype machine is surely gearing up, and while I can see the temptation to hop on the fast colt's bandwagon, I'll let others make that trip. His fractions were fast -- :22.76, :23.07, :24.25, :25.10, and :12.98 -- but not exactly heart-fluttering, and he'll enter the Derby off three starts if his bad feet hold up. In the past 10 years, five others have done the same, and only one even finished in the money -- Curlin, who proved earlier in the day how...
[Posted March 29, 2008 7:30 PM]
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Full Gate in Arkansas
With 110 nominations to the April 12 Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn is guaranteed a full field for the closing leg of its Kentucky Derby prep series. At least 15 horses are being seriously considered for the race, but only 14 can start....
[Posted March 28, 2008 8:00 PM]
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War Pass Works for Wood
- War Pass breezed four furlongs in :47.40 at Palm Meadows on Wednesday, the fastest of 26 works at the distance, restoring trainer Nick Zito's confidence in the colt following the debacle in Tampa. "I'm praying, thanking God that we got another shot," said Zito. "A lot of questions are going to be answered in the Wood" (DRF). The Wood has attracted seven possible starters, including Court Vision, Tale of Ekati, and Giant Moon, and if War Pass is indeed 100 percent, he should be the speed of the race and have no problem returning to his usual front-running, winning...
[Posted March 27, 2008 11:30 PM]
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Derby Paradox
The horse who wins the Kentucky Derby becomes exceptional by virtue of winning the Derby, but that horse is not exceptional before the Derby -- merely above average. And yes, this includes Giacomo....
[Posted March 27, 2008 11:20 AM]
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Wednesday Afternoon Notes
- Proud Spell has been nominated to the Triple Crown. Citing the superior speed figures the filly earned winning the Fair Ground Oaks -- both her Beyer and Sheet number were better than Pyro's in the Louisiana Derby at the same distance on the same day -- owner Bereton Jones said, "We just want to keep all avenues open if she runs a big race in the Ashland" (Blood-Horse). If she beats Country Star in the Ashland like she did Indian Blessing in the Oaks, expect to hear calls for her to take on the boys in the Derby. -...
[Posted March 26, 2008 4:45 PM]
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The Railbird Derby 8
1. Pyro: I concede. In the wake of War Pass' collapse, Pyro rightfully assumes the role of early Derby favorite on the strength of his Louisiana Derby and Risen Star wins. 2. Big Truck: Reminiscent of another NY-bred trained by Barclay Tagg. Only concern is that Tampa Bay Derby winner might not start again before Kentucky Derby. 3. Georgie Boy: Professional in the San Felipe. 4. Cool Coal Man: Nick Zito's best chance. 5. Denis of Cork: Skipped the Rebel, loses rider, described as "not robust." Hope he can overcome. 6. Visionaire: Quietly gaining. 7. King's Silver Sun: Progressing well....
[Posted March 25, 2008 11:45 AM]
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Monday Afternoon Notes
- Lane's End winner Adriano could skip the Kentucky Derby. "I just think we'd have to think long and hard whether that would make sense for him," owner Donald Adam told Jennie Rees after the race. "We think there are a lot of very nice races to be run this year. We'll make that decision as a team." Adriano earned a 92 Beyer for the Lane's End, his first race over a synthetic surface. He's now shown talent on both turf and Polytrack; his one try on dirt was the Fountain of Youth, in which he finished ninth. - Maren's...
[Posted March 24, 2008 12:00 PM]
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They Come From the South
Thanks to commenter Dylbert for mentioning Canonero II and giving me another excuse to dive into the Sports Illustrated Vault. The 1971 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner's name has been bubbling up lately in relation to mystery Peruvian horse Tomcito, scheduled to start in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream on Saturday. The two are terrific racing stories: Both Kentucky-breds, each was purchased for a modest price at a Keeneland sale and shipped to South America, where both became winners. Canonero, however, arrived in the United States two weeks before the Kentucky Derby, losing four days training time in quarantine,...
[Posted March 24, 2008 11:00 AM]
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Fun for Most, Not for All
"My personal feeling is you don't go to the Derby unless you think you can win it or run really, really well. It's a great experience for trainers and owners and everyone except the horse" (Washington Post)....
[Posted March 22, 2008 8:45 AM]
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Looking at the Lane's End
- The 12-horse B-team assembled to run on Saturday in the G2 Lane's End is hardly a field to get excited about, but since two of the starters have already banked enough graded stakes earnings to guarantee a Kentucky Derby post and the winner will earn a Derby berth with their $300,000 share of the purse, the race demands some attention. Halo Najib, coming off a sixth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth, is the morning line favorite at 7-2, but he looks like an easy toss from the top spot, having won only a maiden special and the restricted...
[Posted March 20, 2008 5:00 PM]
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Wednesday Morning Notes
- Overshadowed by the upset in Tampa were the results of the San Felipe and Rebel Stakes, both of which delivered a couple serious contenders for the first Saturday in May. At Santa Anita, 7-5 favorite Georgie Boy, trying two turns for the first time, tracked Bob Black Jack and Gayego through tepid fractions before extricating himself from minor traffic and drawing away in the stretch to win by 3/4 of a length. The Kathy Walsh-trained colt came home in :5.77, running the last quarter in :23.56, for a final time of 1:42.35 and a 92 Beyer. Georgie Boy could...
[Posted March 19, 2008 11:00 AM]
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War Pass 100% Saturday
Saying he was in shock over his colt's stunning defeat at 1-20 in the Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday, owner Robert LaPenta took back his statement about War Pass suffering a fever days before the race. "There is one thing I can guarantee you -- going into the race, there was nothing wrong with that horse" (Blood-Horse). Glad that's been cleared up. Now, about beefing up disclosure rules ......
[Posted March 18, 2008 7:20 PM]
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Pimlico Special Returns
After a one year hiatus, the historic Pimlico Special Stakes returns to the Maryland track's spring meet stakes calendar. This news gives me the perfect excuse to post the call of the 1938 Pimlico Special, otherwise known as the great Seabiscuit-War Admiral match race, in which the 'Biscuit upset the mighty 'Admiral by four lengths: [Many thanks to Bill at RacingFigures.com for the trove of classic calls. More will be appearing on Railbird soon.]...
[Posted March 18, 2008 5:30 PM]
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War Pass Checks Out
War Pass checks out fine in preliminary tests following his perplexing last-place performance as the 1-20 favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby, trainer Nick Zito told DRF: "He scoped clean after the race, his airways are great, and he had no infection. He seems fine although he did have some cuts on his left leg when he came back that he probably sustained when jostled around leaving the gate." More tests and X-rays are planned. If War Pass is indeed fine, he may start next in the Wood at Aqueduct on April 5, although owner Robert LaPenta is reluctant to...
[Posted March 16, 2008 10:00 PM]
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Pyro, Counter-Puncher
Dick Powell hits on what remains my biggest reservation about Pyro, despite his Risen Star and Louisiana Derby wins: In boxing terms, Pyro is a counter-puncher. He responds to what the other horses are doing but doesn't dictate his own circumstances. Until we see him in the Kentucky Derby (G1), where against a large field he'll get a fast pace, we won't know how he'll respond. Three Derby preps today: War Pass takes on a weak field in the Tampa Bay Derby; Z Fortune looms the favorite in the Rebel; and several sprinters stretch out at Santa Anita. I'm most...
[Posted March 15, 2008 12:30 PM]
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Fair Grounds Saturday
I only had time to print out one set of past performances before heading to the airport on Thursday, but that set happened to be Saturday's 12-race extravaganza at the Fair Grounds, a card rich enough to get me two-thirds of the way from New York to Texas. Full field maidens and allowances bookend six stupendous stakes races, including the very exciting Louisiana Derby, in which Pyro has the edge with triple-digit Beyers, recency, and some training with the reigning Horse of the Year, but there's no reason Tale of Ekati and Majestic Warrior shouldn't be running with him in...
[Posted March 7, 2008 9:00 AM]
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A Little Perspective
Count me among the people who had begun wondering if maybe the males of the 2008 3-year-old crop were inferior to the 2007 bunch. Steve Haskin -- deep in his weekly ode to every potential Kentucky Derby starter -- provides a helpful corrective to that thinking: At this time last year, Street Sense hadn't even started. Hard Spun had just finished fourth in the Southwest Stakes as the 1-2 favorite behind Teuflesberg, Officer Rocket, and Forty Grams. Curlin had only a maiden win at seven furlongs in his only career start. Tiago had finished seventh in the Robert Lewis Stakes...
[Posted March 4, 2008 5:40 PM]
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Time Still Not Right
Randy Moss reports that the official, hand-clocked Fountain of Youth final time is still off due to an anomaly in Gulfstream's track configuration: The problem is that Gulfstream's oval isn't exactly 1 1/8 miles, as advertised. When the new lengthened oval was laid out at the time of Gulfstream's massive renovation project, a measuring error was made resulting in the dirt track being slightly longer than 1 1/8 miles in circumference. Thus when 1 1/8-mile races are hand-timed at Gulfstream from finish pole to finish pole, the resulting clockings are about .50 seconds too slow. Timing for 1 1/8-mile races...
[Posted February 28, 2008 7:00 PM]
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Zito, Zito, Zito
Trainer Bob Baffert on the Kentucky Derby picture, post Coal Cool Man's Fountain of Youth win and War Pass's public workout in the 10th at Gulfstream on Sunday: "Well, I see Zito, Zito, Zito and Zito and Zito," he said. Asked if he saw anything on the West Coast, Baffert replied, "Not unless Zito sends one out there." Fractions for the Fountain of Youth were revised on Sunday and again on Monday, with a final adjusted time of 1:50.07 released by Gulfstream this afternoon. Michael has all the details on the FOY timing snafu on Curb My Enthusiasm....
[Posted February 25, 2008 7:25 AM]
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Thanks for Noticing
"There can be no doubt now ... that there clearly is a target audience among women for the sport to embrace."...
[Posted February 19, 2008 5:30 PM]
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Face the Cat Sold, Moved
Trainer Helen Pitts must be suffering a case of deja vu this morning: Last year, the conditioner sent out Curlin to win his debut impressively and then lost the eventual Horse of the Year when he was sold and transferred to Steve Asmussen. DRF reports today that undefeated Derby prospect Face the Cat, who Pitts had been pointing to the Fountain of Youth, has been sold to Padua and moved to trainer Todd Pletcher's shedrow. "I understand the nature of the game and I wish everybody involved with the deal well, but I'll never make it anywhere in this business...
[Posted February 13, 2008 12:30 PM]
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Saturday Morning Notes
- Santa Anita resumes racing today over its reconstituted surface with three graded stakes on a 10-race card, including the Las Virgenes, a prep for the Kentucky Oaks. - Anyone (like me) thinking of betting Tale of Ekati in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager should take heed: "I still don't have him right back where I want him yet," says trainer Barclay Tagg (DRF). It's possible the colt will only have two preps heading into the Derby. - On Facebook? Join the group Thoroughbred Racing in New York. Feel the love, celebrate the racing, never mind...
[Posted February 9, 2008 11:30 AM]
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Yes, why not?
"Why not add a Derby Futures Exacta pool to the current win betting?" (DRF+)...
[Posted February 7, 2008 9:00 PM]
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Kentucky Derby Futures
So, the NHC over, I fled Red Rock on Saturday night for the Venezia, a move that made it possible to walk up the strip to the Wynn, where the race book is taking Kentucky Derby future wagers. Putative early Derby favorite War Pass was at 15-1 on Sunday, as was Pyro, who finished second to the undefeated Nick Zito-trained colt in both the Champagne and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. It goes without saying that the odds on both were too, too low to tempt me, even if I liked either. Well-bred Tale of Ekati, trained by Barclay Tagg, was...
[Posted January 28, 2008 10:00 PM]
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Prepping for the Derby
No flashy big figs: That's one conclusion I draw from these graphs, which show the speed figure pattern established by each 2003-2007 Kentucky Derby starter in their 3-year-old prep campaign and their finish in the Derby. (A chart at bottom contains data for 1998-2002.) Consistency is key, ascendant figures help, and any regression must be minor for a horse to succeed in the run for the roses. More in-depth notes on this data, and other factors I'm geekily analyzing in advance of Derby day, in the coming weeks ... Line color corresponds to finish in the Kentucky Derby 2007: Street...
[Posted January 22, 2008 7:00 PM]
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Who's Next?
Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Lawyer Ron, Curlin ... "Somewhere in the barns on the Oaklawn Park backstretch, there is a 3-year-old thoroughbred that will accelerate heart rates and give birth to dreams."...
[Posted January 18, 2008 11:00 PM]
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Making a Commitment
"So I ask you this as you battle Derby Fever this winter: Are you willing to stay the course with your horse?"...
[Posted January 5, 2008 6:00 AM]
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A Rule and a Jinx Broken
- Just as Barbaro smashed the rule against layoffs longer than four weeks when he won last year's Kentucky Derby, this year's Derby victor Street Sense (DRF) proved that a horse can win off two preps and that the so-called Juvenile Jinx was just a silly superstition. Jockey Calvin Borel gave Street Sense the same rail ride the two enjoyed in last year's Breeders' Cup, let the colt settle into 19th down the backstretch, and then started picking off horses impressively as the field came into the stretch, passing pacesetter and eventual second-place finisher Hard Spun easily (chart). Final...
[Posted May 6, 2007 11:45 AM]
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Derby Preview?
Will Street Sense get the same ground-saving, rail-hugging trip that Calvin Borel and Silverinyourpocket just got in the La Troienne? The Derby could be his race to lose then ......
[Posted May 5, 2007 3:13 PM]
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Derby Notes
- Rags to Riches gave a bravura performance winning the Kentucky Oaks (Blood-Horse), and there's a good chance her workmate Circular Quay (DRF) will return trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Michael Tabor to the Churchill winner's circle following the Derby. If Pletcher wins the Derby with any of his five starters, he'll be the first trainer in 55 years to take the Oaks-Derby double. The last to do so was Calumet Farm's Ben Jones, who won the 1952 Oaks with Real Delight and the Derby with Hill Gail. Circular Quay's 14-1 in advance wagering, but don't look for that overlay...
[Posted May 4, 2007 9:00 PM]
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Plagiarism 101
If you're going to copy someone's words, pick an obscure source. Not a TV show on the same network as the sports event you're writing a script for....
[Posted May 11, 2006 12:15 PM]
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Back to Work
- Barbaro, who arrived at the Fair Hill training center in Maryland early Monday, will jog Wednesday morning. The Derby winner will be prepped for the Preakness at Fair Hill, which is trainer Michael Matz's base. - Matz was back in the winner's circle today: When the Saints, the trainer's first starter since saddling Barbaro for the Derby, won the eighth at Delaware Park this afternoon. - Jockey Edgar Prado took no time off: The rider won three at Belmont on Sunday. "This is a good end to a big weekend," said Prado....
[Posted May 9, 2006 9:30 PM]
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Barbaro Wins Derby
In this, the first Derby post-Giacomo, the feeling of trainers and turf writers and handicappers everywhere seemed to be that anything could happen. The race was wide open, the field the most competitive assembled in years -- 8, 10, even 12 starters were serious contenders for the roses. So why did the race seem to be over before the field turned for home? Keyed Entry and Sinister Minister played their parts as pacesetters perfectly, leaping into first and second place at the break and running moderate fractions of :22.6, :46, and 1:10.8. Barbaro, stumbling on his way out the gate,...
[Posted May 7, 2006 7:00 PM]
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Readings: Drape
"Their horses had gotten here. They had survived bruised hooves, pulled muscles, ulcers, fever -- a medical dictionary worth of ailments -- as well as their own bad races in weekend after weekend of prep races. They were Kentucky Derby horses. "They had earned their yellow workout saddle cloths with their names embroidered on them and a stall beneath the famous twin spires of Churchill Downs. They had a place in the starting gate of what has come to be known as the greatest two minutes in sport. "Their owners and trainers had survived, too. The best and the worst,...
[Posted May 6, 2006 8:00 AM]
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Barbaro Early Favorite
In advance wagering on today's Derby, Barbaro is the early favorite at 5-1. Lawyer Ron is 9-1, and morning line favorite Brother Derek is 10-1. Well, a lot of people have been jumping off his bandwagon. Sweetnorthernsaint's wagon, though, is getting crowded. He's 7-1 in early wagering, and more and more people seem to be coming out in his favor, like Rick Bozich ("He'll outrun Barbaro, Point Determined and Jazil today to win a Derby that many trainers are calling the most competitive in years") and Tim Rice. I suppose the emerging consensus on 'Saint should make me feel confident...
[Posted May 6, 2006 7:55 AM]
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Derby Picks
- There probably won't be any 50-1 plays or life-changing scores for me this year: I like Sweetnorthernsaint, Point Determined, A.P. Warrior, Bob and John, and Brother Derek. Unfortunately, neither Sweetnorthernsaint nor Point Determined is likely to go to post anywhere near their morning line odds -- both have picked up a lot of support over the past couple of days. Sweetnorthernsaint is this year's so-called wise-guy horse, even though by almost every conventional measure (Beyer, history, pedigree, record) he should be one of the favorites. I know that no matter how I try to break down the race, he...
[Posted May 5, 2006 2:30 PM]
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Post Positions & Morning Line
Here's the Derby field, with jockeys and morning line: 1JazilFernando Jara30-1 2SteppenwolferRobby Albarado30-1 3Keyed EntryPat Valenzuela30-1 4Sinister MinisterVictor Espinoza12-1 5Point DeterminedRafael Bejarano12-1 6Showing UpCornelio Velasquez20-1 7Bob and JohnGarrett Gomez12-1 8BarbaroEdgar Prado4-1 9Sharp HumorMark Guidry20-1 10A.P. WarriorCorey Nakatani15-1 11SweetnorthernsaintKent Desormeaux10-1 12Private VowShaun Bridgmohan50-1 13Bluegrass CatRamon Dominguez30-1 14Deputy GlittersJose Lezcano50-1 15Seaside RetreatPatrick Husbands50-1 16Cause to BelieveRussell Baze50-1 17Lawyer RonJohn McKee4-1 18Brother DerekAlex Solis3-1 19Storm TreasureDavid Flores50-1 20Flashy BullMike Smith50-1 Free past performances are available from Brisnet and the Daily Racing Form. More Derby news >...
[Posted May 3, 2006 5:00 PM]
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Post Positions Drawn Today
- Kentucky Derby post positions will be drawn late this afternoon; a full field of 20 is entered. While Flashy Bull is in, thanks to Mister Triester's defection, Sunriver and Sacred Light (21st and 22nd on the graded earnings list) were shut out. Trainer Todd Pletcher is already making alternate plans for Sunriver. "I would consider the Peter Pan ... or the Sir Barton," said Pletcher on Tuesday. Trainer Dave Hofmans entered Sacred Light in an allowance race that'll be run on the undercard. ESPN will air the draw from 5-6 p.m. Over on the Blinkers Off blog, Joe has...
[Posted May 3, 2006 11:45 AM]
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Kentucky Derby Notes
- In the lead up to the Derby, trainers Bob Baffert and Dale Romans are playing a game of my horse is faster than your horse: Let's hear first from Bob Baffert, checking in from California where he'll load three Derby hopefuls on a plane today, including faster-than-sound Sinister Minister. This, from Baffert: "He's just a runaway train. He's going to be on the lead." Back at Churchill Downs, trainer Dale Romans has a word for Baffert if Baffert thinks Sinister Minister can wire this field. Romans to Baffert: You're not in Lexington any more. No more sailing around the...
[Posted May 2, 2006 4:00 PM]
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Demolition Derby
Lowell Sun racing correspondent Paul Daley considers the possibility of disaster caused by the outsize Kentucky Derby field in this week's Sun column, reprinted with permission here. By 7 p.m. on Saturday May 6, 2006, the 132nd running of the Kentucky Derby will have been completed. As usual, it is my fervent hope that all participants, human and equine, return to the unsaddling area in one piece. My annual apprehension stems from the fact that, for the 54th time, more than 14 horses will bound out of the two Churchill Downs' starting gates towards the first turn, all vying for...
[Posted April 30, 2006 5:55 PM]
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Derby Starters Trickle In
- Likely Derby favorite Brother Derek arrived at Churchill Downs this afternoon, and good thing too. With only half of the likely Derby starters on the grounds and no Nick Zito giving press conferences from behind a PVC fence this year, reporters covering the run-up to Derby have been reduced to writing about the lack of likely Derby starters on the grounds and complaining about this year's Derby saddle cloths. Barbaro and Deputy Glitters were also due to arrive this afternoon, bringing the number of Derby prospects at Churchill to 15. Flashy Bull and Jazil are to arrive on Friday;...
[Posted April 27, 2006 7:00 PM]
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Noted: April 18
- In Derby Watch: Sinister Minister -- War Emblem or Bellamy Road? Plus: Baffert calls Sinister Minister "tired" after the Blue Grass, Bob and John and Point Determined work at Santa Anita, and whether Keyed Entry starts in the Derby will depend on how he trains at Churchill this week. - Fantasy Stakes runner-up Miss Norman, who lost the race after running erratically down the Oaklawn stretch, will start next in the Kentucky Oaks. "She's come out of the race very well," said owner Greg Norman. Unsure what caused the filly to duck out twice in the Fantasy, Norman will...
[Posted April 18, 2006 7:00 PM]
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We Now Know ...
For all the questions Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby raised, the results also answered quite a few: We now know that First Samurai can't get 1 1/4 mile; that With a City's win in the Lane's End was a fluke; that trainer Nick Zito isn't going to this year's Kentucky Derby, and neither is Strong Contender; and that Todd Pletcher probably isn't going to get his first Derby win three weeks from now, although Bob Baffert may well get his fourth. Baffert gained a third Derby starter when Sinister Minister won the Blue Grass Stakes wire-to-wire in the...
[Posted April 16, 2006 8:05 PM]
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This Weekend's Preps
The Kentucky Derby prep season largely comes to an end this Saturday with the Blue Grass Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. Sure, there's the Lexington on April 22, which might yield a Derby starter or two, and it's possible some brave (or desperate) trainer will use the Derby Trial as a tightening for the Derby as Ron Ellis did last year with Don't Get Mad, who ended up finishing fourth in the run for the roses after winning the Trial the week before. It's not likely, though, that the Derby winner will run in either of those races. And it's...
[Posted April 14, 2006 1:00 PM]
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Saturday Race Results
Brother Derek will almost certainly go into the Kentucky Derby gate as the favorite, and for good reason. His win in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby "was so easy Alex Solis was standing in his stirrups and celebrating well before he crossed the finish line," 3 1/4 lengths ahead of Point Determined. A.P. Warrior was third. Yet again, Brother Derek demonstrated tactical speed and an ability to finish strong, and he looked magnificent in the post parade as well, arching his neck and pushing his lead pony around. "This horse is a monster," said Solis of Derek. "Just incredible. He keeps...
[Posted April 9, 2006 1:15 PM]
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So Many Claimers
I'm not the only one puzzling over what it might mean that so many Kentucky Derby prospects have run in claiming races. Jennie Rees is wondering about the same thing: Four of the past five major Kentucky Derby preps were won by horses who had been in claiming races: With a City [Lane's End], Lawyer Ron [Rebel], Deputy Glitters [Tampa Bay Derby] and Like Now [Gotham]. That says something, but what? Ideas from horsemen include: Trainers don't know what they have. Young horses change dramatically. You're better off claiming horses than spending big bucks at the sales. Too many top...
[Posted March 31, 2006 3:30 PM]
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Florida Derby
Barbaro is the 8-5 morning line favorite for tomorrow's Florida Derby, but his post-time odds will almost certainly be more like even money. The wagering public loves undefeated horses, and there are no obvious standouts among the rest of the field. There are three knocks against Barbaro though: He's making his first start on a fast dirt track, off an eight-week layoff, and breaking from post 10. The first two aren't that serious: The colt trains on dirt and is a half-brother to stakes winner Holy Ground, after all, and trainer Michael Matz knows a little something about keeping horses...
[Posted March 31, 2006 3:00 PM]
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Surprises All Around
Lawyer Ron was the only favorite to win one of today's Derby preps: The sharp colt trained by Bob Holthus came from off the pace to take the Rebel, with second-favorite Private Vow, making his first start since last November, fading out of contention early. Achilles of Troy finished fifth in the Gotham, well behind wire-to-wire winner Like Now, and was vanned off with a sore leg; Bluegrass Cat was second to Deputy Glitters in the Tampa Bay Derby; and Bob and John had a troubled trip and barely got up for third in the San Felipe, which was won...
[Posted March 18, 2006 10:30 PM]
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Stevie Out of Derby
Perhaps there's something to this Juvenile Jinx superstition after all: Stevie Wonderboy will miss the Kentucky Derby after suffering a hairline fracture in his right front ankle while breezing six furlongs this morning at Hollywood Park. "He's out of the Derby. It's the saddest thing in my life," said owner Merv Griffin of the sudden injury. The 2005 Juvenile champion will likely have surgery on the ankle and be out of training for the next three months. Stevie was one of the leading early Derby contenders and the third favorite in the first Derby Future Wager pool (behind the field...
[Posted February 6, 2006 3:00 PM]
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Quick Saturday Results
Barbaro remains undefeated. The Michael Matz-trained colt showed he could handle the switch from turf to dirt (or at least, from turf to slop) and deserved to be considered a legitimate Derby prospect, winning the Holy Bull Stakes by three quarters of a length over Nick Zito's Great Point, who trailed the field in twelfth through the first half and closed impressively in the final yards to finish second. Barbaro stalked Aventura winner Doctor Decherd to the top of the stretch and then pulled away to briefly open up a three-length lead. It was a nice race, with a final...
[Posted February 4, 2006 11:30 PM]
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The Yum! Derby
There are some things that should be beyond the reach of advertisers. What's next? Jay Hovdey considers the sponsorship possibilities: "In a surprise move, The Jockey Club today announced that the entire North American Thoroughbred foal crop of 2007 would be underwritten by Pampers, a division of Procter & Gamble Co., the home and personal products giant."...
[Posted February 1, 2006 9:10 AM]
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Big Field for Holy Bull
Although some trainers plan to send their top Derby hopefuls elsewhere to avoid Gulfstream's problematic three-year-old stakes series ... The Holy Bull is the first major two-turn race for three-year-olds on the Derby Trail at Gulfstream, but when the field is drawn on Thursday several well-regarded prospects will be conspicuously missing. Todd Pletcher is planning to send Bluegrass Cat to Tampa for the Sam F. Davis, Nick Zito is considering the same for allowance winner Hesanoldsalt, and Frank Brother's First Samurai will race in the seven and a half furlong Hutcheson instead, all because the Holy Bull distance of nine...
[Posted January 31, 2006 9:15 PM]
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Another Contender Emerges
Before the El Camino Real on Sunday, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer was modest about the prospect of his colt, Cause to Believe, running in the Kentucky Derby. "I'm pleased they think that much of him to put him in there," Hollendorfer said of the [Daily Racing Form list of early Derby contenders]. "But I don't have a certain path for him, because my owner isn't real serious about the Derby trail." But then Cause to Believe won the El Camino Real with a late run, finishing three-quarters of a length ahead of pace-setting Objective. "I've had confidence in this horse all...
[Posted January 30, 2006 6:30 PM]
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Saturday's Stakes, Briefly
A small field of six is entered in the San Rafael Stakes, but the race is really a two horse affair ... Saint Augustus is the "tepid" Risen Star morning line favorite ... the undefeated filly French Park returns in the Silverbulletday....
[Posted January 13, 2006 10:30 PM]
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Early Derby Picks
Looking for Derby news and picks? Visit the 2006 Derby Watch page. --- I was going to wait until after the Remsen at Aqueduct and the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill on November 26 before putting together any kind of list of potential 2006 Kentucky Derby contenders, but in the past week a surprising number of visitors have come to the site searching for variations of "2006 Derby picks" and "Early Kentucky Derby picks," so I think I'll start one now ... The super-early Railbird top 10 Kentucky Derby prospects: 1. Stevie Wonderboy 2. First Samurai 3. Henny Hughes...
[Posted November 14, 2005 8:30 PM]
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182 Days
Now that the Breeders' Cup is over, we can all look toward the next big event on racing's calendar: The 2006 Kentucky Derby. There are a mere 182 days remaining to the first Saturday of May. Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Stevie Wonderboy, whose owner has already displayed acute symptoms of Derby Fever, will be put into light training for the next couple of months and then return in January or February to prep for the Derby. "Unless something changes, the plan is to wait and start him in January or February. We haven't decided which races ... Maybe he'll have...
[Posted November 4, 2005 7:10 PM]
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Derby-Related Odds & Ends
Winning Suffolk superfecta winner revealed: "Turf club sources at Suffolk Downs yesterday identified Paul Braverman, a major player at the East Boston oval, as one of seven bettors in the United States to hit the lucrative superfecta in last Saturday's Kentucky Derby." Braverman is rumored to be on vacation in Australia and unavailable for comment. (Boston Herald) John Pricci has one question for those disappointed at the outcome of this year's Derby: "What race were you watching?" (MSNBC) Jockey Mike Smith's first post-Derby ride? An $8,000 claimer. (Courier-Journal)...
[Posted May 13, 2005 9:30 AM]
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Final Derby Comments
A friend who's an occasional Railbird reader called yesterday to ask: "What do you think of Giacomo?" Eh, and a shoulder shrug -- that's what I think. I liked Giacomo until the Santa Anita Derby, a race in which I thought he needed to show some improvement (read: win, or have a very good excuse for running second) if he was going to prove more than a sucker horse. I was disappointed at his Derby win, although that had more to do with the dismal performances of horses (Afleet Alex excepted) I'd backed than with Giacomo. I'm curious to see...
[Posted May 11, 2005 9:20 AM]
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One of the Worst Derbies Ever?
That's what Andrew Beyer says: The victory by Giacomo in Saturday's Kentucky Derby came as a crashing anticlimax -- a race that will rank among the worst Derbies of recent decades, along with Sea Hero's win in 1993 and Gato Del Sol's in 1982. Giacomo's triumph produced more bewilderment than exhilaration. How did it happen that a 50-1 shot, who had won a single race in his career, edged out an equally undistinguished 72-1 shot in the nation's most celebrated horse race? ... The final half-mile of this Derby was run in 53.16 seconds -- the slowest such fraction over...
[Posted May 10, 2005 10:55 AM]
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Explaining Giacomo
Gary West explains Giacomo's Derby upset this way: "The combination of a dull rail, an uncommonly fast track and a Derby field laden with speed produced a 50-1 winner." The first six furlongs were run in 1:09.59; the final time was 2:02.75. (Star Telegram) The Kentucky Derby Beyer numbers are out, and, "Giacomo was barely the best of a barely adequate group. His winning Beyer speed figure was 100. Beyer figures are available on the Derby beginning with 1992. Until Saturday, the lowest number run by a winner was 105 by Sea Hero in 1993." (Courier-Journal) The emerging consensus seems...
[Posted May 9, 2005 8:55 AM]
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We Have a Derby Winner
And his name is Giacomo. Closing Argument ran second, Afleet Alex was third, followed by Don't Get Mad and Buzzards Bay. Wilko was sixth. Intriguing that four of the top six were California horses. Asks Rick Bozich: "Jack Who won the Derby?" Exactly. The last mention I made of Giacomo was on May 1: Workouts: Giacomo (remember Giacomo?) breezed six furlongs in 1:11.8 on Sunday at Hollywood Park. And I then forgot all about him, as did almost everyone else, which is why he was sent off at 50-1 in yesterday's race. What a surprise finish -- you've got to...
[Posted May 8, 2005 12:00 PM]
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Derby Picks Are Up
Special guest Ed DeRosa fingers a surprising horse to win, and Alan Mann of Left at the Gate and I debate Bellamy Road's merits. --- Picks elsewhere: The Daily Racing Form has extensive analysis with picks from Andrew Beyer, Brad Free, Steven Crist, etc.; Steve Haskin analyzes the Derby at Blood-Horse; and at ESPN, Jay Cronley, Bill Finley, and Ed McNamara tell who they think will win. Derby news ......
[Posted May 6, 2005 5:30 PM]
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Post Positions Drawn for Derby
Five of the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners have started from the auxiliary gate, which was the place to be during yesterday's post position draw. Trainer Nick Zito put likely favorite Bellamy Road in post 16. Trainer Todd Pletcher had first pick, and put third-favorite Bandini in post 15: "We wanted to be toward the outside ... We wanted to stay clear of the inside traffic. Plus, if there's a scratch you go to 14 and you're in the same position," said Pletcher. (Blood-Horse) Second-favorite Afleet Alex is on the far end of the first gate, in post 12; for...
[Posted May 5, 2005 11:50 AM]
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Derby Drinks
Everyone knows the Kentucky Derby means mint juleps, but the Preakness and the Belmont have signature drinks as well. (Shreveport Times) If you must make juleps, here's a recipe (Houston Chronicle), and another from the Derby post (includes a recipe for a fruity variant)....
[Posted May 4, 2005 8:00 PM]
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Andrew Beyer: Handicapper, Comedian
dabomb_2: Q: I see a lot of people talking about Andromeda's Hero. What are his chances? ANDY_BEYER: You're the only person talking about Andromeda's Hero. He has no chance whatsoever. illini82: Q: Why are the California horses getting no respect? ANDY_BEYER: Because they stink. The full DRF chat transcript. More Derby news ......
[Posted May 4, 2005 10:50 AM]
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What's Not to Love About Alex?
Media Life correspondent Toni Fitzgerald predicted Monday that TV ratings for the Kentucky Derby would be way down this year without a heart-tugging favorite like Smarty Jones grabbing the public's attention. Toni, meet Afleet Alex. The scrappy colt -- rejected by his mother, handfed by a cute little girl with a Coors Light bottle, owned by a gang of Philadelphia friends who are going to the Derby with the very first horse they bought -- is poised to become America's horse. By Saturday, I'd guess even the most casual of racing fans will know his name, if the recent media...
[Posted May 3, 2005 11:30 AM]
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The Greatest Sporting Event
Frank Murtaugh gives five reasons why the Kentucky Derby is the greatest sporting event in America: "Time is of the essence ... Four-legged athletes don't talk ... [There's] room for the little guy ... Stars are born ... [It's] sport as art." (Memphis Flyer)...
[Posted May 2, 2005 11:15 AM]
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Next Year's Fad
Two articles are out today about Tim Ritchey's unusual training regimen for Afleet Alex: The colt is sometimes sent out twice in the morning, once to jog and another time to gallop. "They [horses] are athletes and they have to be fit," Ritchey said. "You cannot baby them." (Blood-Horse) Ritchey got the idea from his days in steeplechasing, where the horses are given more daily exercise than are typical racehorses. Another former steeplechaser, trainer Barclay Tagg, approves of what Ritchey's doing: "If it suits the horse, he's doing the right thing, and it obviously suits the horse," said Tagg. "It's...
[Posted April 26, 2005 1:00 PM]
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Last-Ditch Derby
Coin Silver wins the Lexington and pays $28.80; big favorite Rockport Harbor finishes sixth out of seven. It was clear as the field entered the stretch that Rockport had lost -- he was too far back, didn't seem to like the sloppy track, and would have had to make an amazing come-from-behind move to take the lead, and he just didn't seem to have the energy or the heart to do any such thing this afternoon. Trainer John Servis was circumspect when asked after the race where Rockport Harbor would go next. "I'll have to talk to Mr. Porter," said...
[Posted April 23, 2005 10:40 AM]
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Bounce-and-Win
Steven Crist considers the possibility that Bellamy Road bounces from his 120 Wood Memorial Beyer figure and still wins the Kentucky Derby: Let's say Bellamy Road goes out and runs a 113 in the Derby, which some would consider a bounce off his Wood. Have you got a strong candidate to run a 114 and beat him? The next best Beyer out there is Afleet Alex's 108 in the Arkansas Derby. There's plenty of room for a bounce-and-win. (Daily Racing Form -- sub. req.) It's possible, I suppose. But how likely is it that with a full field of 20...
[Posted April 22, 2005 10:50 AM]
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Derby Blogs
The Courier-Journal leaps into the blogosphere with three Derby-related blogs written by an Arkansas expat, a horseplaying lawyer, and an army captain in Baghdad....
[Posted April 21, 2005 5:40 PM]
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I Take the One Less Traveled By
With less than three weeks to go, Bellamy Road is far and away the Kentucky Derby favorite thanks to his eye-popping, jaw-dropping, 17 1/2 length, record-setting, 120 Beyer figure Wood Memorial win. That was a pretty good performance. But the Kentucky Derby isn't a six furlong sprint with a short field; to the fastest goes the roses isn't a rule. As Michael Hammersly points out in the Daily Racing Form -- sub. req.: The [best last race Beyer] guarantees you nothing, good or bad. Big figs have gone into the Derby and lost; big figs have gone into the Derby...
[Posted April 20, 2005 10:55 AM]
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Anyone But Rose
Rather, no one but Rose! Yay to Tim Ritchey and Cash Is King for making the decision to keep jockey Jeremy Rose on Afleet in Alex in the Kentucky Derby. (And thanks to Jolene at Oregon Racing News for passing along the link from Blood-Horse this evening.) More: "Jeremy is absolutely thrilled," said Kid Breeden, Rose's agent. "He's very happy. Make that, extremely happy." (News Journal) --- That seems to be the thinking of trainer Tim Ritchey and Cash Is King partnership when it comes to naming a jockey to ride Afleet Alex in the Kentucky Derby: Although Jeremy Rose...
[Posted April 19, 2005 10:55 AM]
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Two Very Satisfying Results
Bandini wins the Blue Grass Stakes, Afleet Alex the Arkansas Derby, both with brilliant performances. --- What I like about both the Blue Grass and the Arkansas Derby is that there are no questions attached to the winners -- there were no sloppy tracks, no shocking performances, no concerns about the quality of the fields. Bandini did come in slowly, running the last eighth in :13.4, and the race's final time was 1:50.16, hardly the speediest prep race we've seen, but the way he took the lead in the stretch was commanding and in keeping with the improvement he's shown...
[Posted April 16, 2005 6:50 PM]
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Fresh Horses
Bobby Frankel addresses the fad for fewer preps and fresh horses going into this year's Derby: Everything has changed and the reason it has changed is because obviously what we're doing now works. So what we did in the past, it was great then, but now we've figured out that having your horses fresh and everything for these kind of races, that they run their best races. But the negative part about it is when you run them so fresh and they run so hard like, well, it's like [Nick's] or maybe our -- my horse will run in the...
[Posted April 14, 2005 11:40 AM]
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Beyer on Bellamy Road
Andrew Beyer can't say enough good about Bellamy Road following his Wood Memorial triumph: Bellamy Road's victory in the Wood was one of the most stunning and authoritative performances ever delivered in a prep race for the Kentucky Derby ... He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 120 -- the best performance in a Derby prep race since these numbers began appearing in print in 1991. It was better than the winning figure in any Triple Crown race during this period. And it was better than any horse of any age has earned in the United States this year ......
[Posted April 13, 2005 10:55 AM]
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Inexplicable
That's the only way I can describe the Santa Anita Derby results....
[Posted April 9, 2005 8:10 PM]
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Kentucky Derby Q & A
You have questions. Miss Jo has answers: Q: Nerd. I assume you must know something about that song they always play. A: Of course. It's "My Old Kentucky Home," written by Stephen Foster. No one can be sure that Stephen Foster ever visited Kentucky, and it certainly wasn't his "home," but it is one of the more recognizable tunes penned by this folk icon who died tragically young. The song is played as the horses step on the track. Many folks sing along. Some just get weepy. And if you're in the infield, by this point you're probably too drunk...
[Posted April 5, 2005 8:45 AM]
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Derby Top Five
The Railbird Derby top five: Bellamy Road (Zito/Castellano) Won the Wood by 17 lengths, demolishing the competition Bandini (Pletcher/Velazquez) He's got every angle covered Afleet Alex (Ritchey/Velazquez) What lung infection? The old Alex is back. And any doubts about his abilities around two turns are gone after a brilliant win in the Arkansas Derby Noble Causeway (Zito/Prado) Improves with each start High Limit (Frankel/Dominguez) Showed he can rate; decent second place finish in the Blue Grass...
[Posted April 5, 2005 8:42 AM]
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Florida Derby
It's 1-2 for trainer Nick Zito, as High Fly wins the Florida Derby and Noble Causeway runs second. High Fly, the favorite at 6-5, stalked pacesetter B.B. Best, as expected, with Mighty Mecke and Vicarage not too far behind. Moving into the the stretch turn, High Fly zipped to the lead and Noble Causeway moved from fifth to third to second. With a second win at 1 1/8, High Fly proves he's a legitimate Derby prospect, but there is the nagging question of how he'll do on May 7 coming off a five-week layoff. Same for Noble Causeway, who showed...
[Posted April 2, 2005 6:20 PM]
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Rushaway & Lane's End
Notes while watching the Rushaway and Lane's End Stakes on ESPN: Oh, that's bad. Commentator Randy Moss just called Proud Accolade "The Shamardal of the Rushaway." Maybe badly beaten favorite Proud Accolade didn't like Turfway's muddy track. Shamardal doesn't have such a convenient excuse -- Sheikh Mohammed's Great Derby Hope was beaten by 46 lengths in the UAE Derby earlier today. Rushaway winner Cat Shaker pays 79.80 to win. He's not a Triple Crown nominee -- yet. The word from his euphoric owner is that he'll put up the $6,000 late nomination fee now. Gary Stevens says he'll be riding...
[Posted March 26, 2005 4:50 PM]
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It's Not Intuition
It's "cosmic criteria." Vic Zast wields a hatpin -- oops, sorry, that's what women use to pick horses -- a crystal ball to divine this year's Kentucky Derby winner. (MSNBC)...
[Posted March 22, 2005 9:55 AM]
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Playing With History
Both Steven Crist and Gary West have hit the Kentucky Derby history books and come up with a couple of angles for sorting out this year's pretenders from contenders. Crist notes that of the last 12 Derby winners, all started their preps 11-17 weeks before the big race (Daily Racing Form -- sub. req.), and West observes that of the last 40 winners, all had experience racing in fields with at least 10 starters before they got to the Derby (Star-Telegram). Put these two factors together, along with the results of recent prep races, and the list of top Derby...
[Posted March 20, 2005 11:45 AM]
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Saturday's Races
Quick notes on a couple of Saturday's Derby prep races: Consolidator looked great in the San Felipe at Santa Anita, sitting off the pace until six furlongs and then drawing off from the rest of field, winning by 6 1/2 lengths and setting two records. (LA Times) Afleet Alex's dismal last place finish in the Rebel at Oaklawn was more than surprising -- it was downright shocking. This is a horse who's never run worse than second in his seven previous starts. The news today though is that Alex has a lung infection and will return to the track after...
[Posted March 20, 2005 11:00 AM]
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Lost in the Fog Is Out
"With four decisive wins in four starts, Lost in the Fog is the most consistently fast 3-year-old in America, but he will not run in any of the three Triple Crown races. Trainer Greg Gilchrist and owner Harry J. Aleo confirmed Wednesday that they wouldn't subject their Golden Gate Fields-based colt to the rigors of long races like the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby, 1 3/16-mile Preakness and 1 1/2- mile Belmont Stakes." Good for Aleo and Gilchrist, for recognizing that they have a fantastic sprinter who deserves a decent career and for not succumbing to Derby fever. Lost in the...
[Posted March 17, 2005 7:45 AM]
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The Zito Derby
It's no secret that trainer Nick Zito is flush with solid Derby prospects. Steve Haskin quotes one rival telling this joke in the latest installment of his Derby Trail column: "I heard that he now plans to conduct his own race, the inaugural Nicholas P. Zito Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Palm Meadows. The only problem is the race is restricted to 10 starters and Nick has 27 horses he wants to run." Funny....
[Posted March 15, 2005 6:50 PM]
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Declan's Moon Off Derby Trail
Declan's Moon has been diagnosed with a chip in his left knee that will keep him from racing through the summer. The colt likely sustained the injury last weekend during the Santa Catalina. Undefeated in five starts, Declan's Moon was highly favored for the Kentucky Derby. It's a shame, but I can't say I'm disappointed -- the appeal of Declan's Moon has eluded me, and his absence from the Derby makes the coming weeks all the more interesting. (Daily Racing Form)...
[Posted March 11, 2005 10:25 AM]
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The Unthinkable
Kentuckians are bracing themselves for the possibility that for the first time in the Derby's history, the race might be won by a non-Kentucky-bred horse for the third year in a row. "The only thing worse in Kentucky might be if the tobacco industry moved to Rhode Island." (LA Times)...
[Posted March 1, 2005 11:30 AM]
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Ziegel's Rule
"Derby winners have to sound like Derby winners." So, not Electric Light, but maybe Scipion. (New York Daily News)...
[Posted February 20, 2005 11:00 AM]
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Touched by Derby Fever
I must be, because the news that Afleet Alex worked four furlongs in 47 seconds at Oaklawn yesterday has me all aflutter. Alex will meet the undefeated Rockport Harbor, who's scheduled for a mile workout of his own this weekend, in the March 19 Rebel Stakes....
[Posted February 17, 2005 11:00 AM]
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Exactly
Mike Watchmaker is skeptical of the light prep schedule of several Derby colts: "There seems to be something going around, and it appears to be fairly contagious. Either several of the most prominent prospects for the Kentucky Derby have a bad case of the 'fragiles,' meaning they can only be campaigned very judiciously for fear of breaking, or their trainers have lost contact with reality and think they are the reincarnation of Charlie Whittingham. "Declan's Moon, Afleet Alex, Rockport Harbor, and Wilko are four of the top, if not the top four, contenders for the Derby. Yet, as the schedules...
[Posted February 15, 2005 10:20 AM]
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Disappointing Weekend
For a couple of promising potential Kentucky Derby contenders, this weekend's prep races were a bust: Galloping Grocer, who'd lost only once before, to Rockport Harbor in November's Remsen Stakes, finished fourth in Saturday's Whirlaway at Aqueduct; Todd Pletcher-trained Harlington was never a factor in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. (New York Times) Comment: Jockey Aaron Gryder's comment on Galloping Grocer's performance really struck me. "The last eighth of a mile he wasn't able to sustain that run. He was off for 11 weeks and, sometimes, a big horse like him needs racing more than training," he told Bill...
[Posted February 13, 2005 12:15 PM]
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Empty Pool
I'm so glad to know I'm not the only one glum about the anemic prices and short list of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. Steven Crist is too: "There are basically two ways to play the Derby Futures. The first is to be a contrarian, play the field, and say this is going to be another one of those years when the Derby winner is not one of the 23 top prospects as of Valentine's Day. This would have worked with Smarty Jones last year, and War Emblem in 2002, though not with Funny Cide, the longest shot in Pool...
[Posted February 11, 2005 10:15 AM]
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Too Much Risk
Lost in the Fog's absence from the list of Triple Crown nominees "isn't a result of negligence; it's a product of wisdom." Owner Harry Aleo has decided prepping his colt for the Kentucky Derby is too risky. "The Triple Crown can knock the hell out of a horse, and I'm not sure it's worth it." (Star-Telegram)...
[Posted February 11, 2005 9:25 AM]
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Pool 1 Opens Thursday
Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager opens Thursday. Morning-line maker Mike Battaglia set the mutuel field as favorite at 3-1; Declan's Moon is the individual favorite at 6-1. The Daily Racing Form is offering free past performances for Derby and Oaks horses starting Thursday....
[Posted February 9, 2005 9:15 AM]
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Derby Speculations
- "If someone said the Derby winner definitely ran on Saturday, the logical choice would be runaway winner Bandini." (BH) - "A fast horse from very humble beginnings who, while having a lot more to prove, has looked phenomenal in the minor leagues," Cajun Pepper is hot stuff. (ESPN) - Looking for Derby horses? Head to Gulfstream. (MSNBC) - Join in: Play Road to the Roses....
[Posted February 8, 2005 10:45 AM]
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Fusaichi Samurai Out of Derby
A training injury has pushed Fusaichi Samurai off the Kentucky Derby trail. Trainer Neil Drysdale says he doesn't know how long the colt will be sidelined. (LA Times) Related: "Gulfstream Park's reshuffled schedule of 3-year-old races gets its first test in the Feb. 5 Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) when Kentucky Derby (gr. I) hopefuls are required to stretch out for the first of three 1 1/8-mile stakes." (Blood-Horse)...
[Posted February 5, 2005 11:40 AM]
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Inspiring, Impressive
And above all: Considerably talented. Stricken with a case of the wobbles, Shamardal was labeled a "destruction case." Then along came an energy healer, a massage therapist, and a benevolent insurance adjuster to save the colt's life. Now the three-year-old is a possible Kentucky Derby contender. (ESPN) Shamardal is no Lost in the Fog though: The racing world is ga-ga over the three-year-old from Northern California. Offers to buy the youngster have poured in to owner Harry Aleo, and it seems as though only his trainer, Greg Gilchrist, is leery of all the recent Derby talk. If it was up...
[Posted February 2, 2005 9:00 AM]
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Not Enough
Increasing the Kentucky Derby purse to $2 million is a good step, says Bill Finley, but it's not enough. "The Kentucky Derby is the greatest race in the world and there's no reason why the purse should be significantly smaller than the $6 million Dubai World Cup, the $4 million Breeders' Cup Classic and equal to the $2 million Breeders' Cup Distaff and $2 million Breeders' Cup Turf." (ESPN)...
[Posted January 11, 2005 8:55 AM]
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A Safe Prediction
Bill Finley looks ahead: "At this writing, there are 148 days, three hours and 18 minutes until the running of the 131st Kentucky Derby, but it's not too early to get excited. I can't tell you who is going to win, but I can tell you, even this early, that it's likely to be an outstanding horse." (ESPN)...
[Posted December 21, 2004 8:35 AM]
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The Turkey-Tinsel Gap
What better way to fill December than with speculation on the Kentucky Derby. Steve Haskin kicks off a series of columns leading up to the Run for the Roses. (Blood-Horse)...
[Posted November 30, 2004 8:30 PM]
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