Archives > Handicapping

Today's Longshot Flyer: KEE, R7: Olemiss Rebel (ML 15-1). [Never mind, Olemiss scratched. Thanks to EJXD2 and Mr. Railbird for the alerts. EJXD2 points to Acoma (3-1) in this spot, which I can see, although Allseas (10-1), on the improve, stretching out, and making her third start, intrigues me a little more.]...; [Posted April 18, 2008 11:05 AM]; ---

I Heart Synthetics: Thanks for all the great comments on this post linking to Andrew Beyer's column about the Blue Grass. I'm reminded of why I enjoy this game so much: It's a perpetual puzzle that attracts smart people and spirited discussion, and it's one of the few hobbies or pursuits that doesn't just reward contrarianism, but practically demands it. I like synthetic surfaces. There, I admitted it. I went to Turfway in 2006 to see Polytrack up close, I started following the Southern California circuit with the advent of Cushion Track at Hollywood, I prefer playing Keeneland Polytrack to Keeneland dirt. Putting...; [Posted April 17, 2008 12:30 PM]; ---

Synth to Dirt, No Problem: A little breakfast time research yields this nugget: Of the 460 nominees to the Triple Crown, 61 have made the switch from a synthetic surface to a fast dirt track. Of those, 47* improved or replicated their synthetic form on dirt. Will the California form of Colonel John and Bob Black Jack hold up at Churchill? The odds look good it will. [*Details in this Google doc. Note: Only horses who raced primarily on synthetics at the start of their careers and who switched from such a surface to a fast dirt track are included (so those whose single dirt...; [Posted April 15, 2008 08:00 AM]; ---

Today's Longshot Flyer: KEE, R5: Life Lesson (ML 12-1). [Results: Sent off at 7-1 odds, Life Lesson broke alertly, took an early lead, hung on through the stretch to win. She was disqualified and bumped to third for interference, though, after drifting into the path of Dan's Pride, who deadheated for second with Temper Temper. I'm quite disappointed.] Kip Seville, a full sister to BC Mile winner Kip Deville (who captured the Maker's Mark Mile at Keeneland on Friday in his return to the track), also starts in this race. The gray 3-year-old filly made her debut in February at the Fair Grounds...; [Posted April 12, 2008 10:20 AM]; ---

Also True of PPs: Bill James on baseball stats: "I would say generally that baseball statistics are always trying to mislead you, and that it is a constant battle not to be misled by them."...; [Posted April 2, 2008 10:25 AM]; ---

Saturday's Longshot Flyer: TP, R2: Maajnoon (ML 30-1). [Results: Off at 81-1 in her debut, Maajnoon finished dead last in a field of 12.] --- Briefly, the Bourbonette Oaks: Both A to the Croft and Clearly Foxy have run well in graded stakes, but neither have started since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and could need a race. Valentine Fever came back gamely to beat Love Buzz in the Valdale at Turfway last month; Lovers Spat finished third in that race. I'm going to go with Maren's Meadow, coming off a second place finish to Sky Mom in the tough Martha Washington Stakes...; [Posted March 21, 2008 09:30 PM]; ---

The Bad and the Troubled: "The obvious trouble with trouble is it might have happened to a slow horse."...; [Posted February 26, 2008 10:00 PM]; ---

Winners Win Races: Seven weeks into the meet, Steve Zacks runs some Gulfstream stats and finds recent wins matter: Winners win races! Be they trainers, jockeys or the horses themselves. A recent win is an important factor to take into consideration in handicapping. After eliminating the races for maidens, 249 races for winners have been offered. Of those winners, 183 had won at least one of their previous five starts, and 59 were repeating a last-out victory. From the 59 repeaters, 24 had won at least one other race in their last five. Zacks doesn't provide the total number of starters who won...; [Posted February 20, 2008 09:45 PM]; ---

Today's Longshot Flyer: AQU, R2: E Z Dollar (ML 10-1). [Results: Wearing blinkers for the first time, E Z Dollar drew clear in the stretch, paid $19.60 to win.]...; [Posted January 31, 2008 12:30 AM]; ---

At the Red Rock ...: And an hour to go before the first mandatory race of the National Handicapping Championship. I'm in Las Vegas for the event, which appears to be off to a good start, and that's about the only insight I can provide. Check out DRF for contest recaps and standings and John Pricci's NHC and World Series reports on Horse Race Insider for updates....; [Posted January 25, 2008 09:45 AM]; ---

Today's Longshot Flyer: AQU, R6: Awesome I Am (ML 15-1). [Results: Awesome I Am was awesome indeed, paying $14.60 to win.]...; [Posted January 9, 2008 08:45 AM]; ---

Privileging Speed: "You have to go to a bull ring like Great Lakes Downs to find a similar speed bias," writes Dick Powell of Gulfstream's main track speed bias during last year's meet, raising a point I've touched on here in posts about synthetic surfaces: Can you imagine the outcry if this was a synthetic racing surface and it had such a pronounced bias? Synthetic racing surface critics pounded Del Mar's Polytrack this summer yet where are they with Gulfstream's main track? Just like a speed horse was at a big disadvantage trying to go two turns on Del Mar's main track,...; [Posted January 5, 2008 04:00 PM]; ---

Today's Longshot Flyer: AQU, R4: Weekwee (ML 15-1). [Results: Off at 35-1, Weekwee had no rally, finished sixth.]...; [Posted January 3, 2008 07:00 AM]; ---

Resolutions Already Broken: John Pricci makes some New Year's anti-resolutions: Let's see, the first resolution I'm highly likely to break is to not get emotional about a horse ... I promise not to be upset with Bobby Frankel but I will ... I won't write down all my bets. I make no resolutions, usually, but this year I'm making an exception: I resolve to play no more superfectas. I've hit one -- just one -- in the past four years. Record keeping -- possibly my last New Year's resolution, made in 2004 -- can yield useful nuggets....; [Posted January 2, 2008 07:30 AM]; ---

Pletcher Strikes Out Again: With Argentina scratched from the third race, trainer Todd Pletcher had his best chance for a win today with Wingspan, who went off as the 1-2 favorite in the allowance event and then ran like a 10-1 shot, finishing third. Pletcher went 0-for-5 today, bringing his record to 0-for-26 since August 11. It's time to ask: What's up with Pletcher at the Spa? The supertrainer is 24% wins, 53% in the money for the past 90 days overall; 33% wins, 64% in the money at Monmouth this summer; 23% wins, 54% in the money at Arlington. But at Saratoga, he's...; [Posted August 22, 2007 10:30 PM]; ---

Laurel Cuts Takeout to 10%: Laurel joins the reduced-takeout revolution, at least for the summer, cutting takeout on all wagers to 10% for their upcoming 10-day meet. With an additional state-required 1.4% withheld, takeout is a mere 11.4% on everything -- win, trifecta, pick six, etc. Payouts on exotics, which had a takeout of 25.75%, will be 20% greater than before. "It will be like having a built-in rebate benefiting the $2 bettor as well as the $2,000 bettor," said Maryland Jockey Club president Lou Raffeto. Wow. Especially because, as Michael points out on Curb My Enthusiam, Laurel is Magna-owned. Could this be the start...; [Posted July 18, 2007 10:45 PM]; ---

Keep an Eye On: - Trainer Barry Abrams and apprentice Joe Talamo at Hollywood. The pair have won four of five in the past three weeks; their overall percentage is 36% for 2006-2007. Talamo is also doing well with horses from trainer Vladimir Cerin's barn, winning three of eight in the last month and finishing second or third in four others, giving the pair an 88% ITM rate for June. - Debut starters by first-crop sire Hook and Ladder, who got his third winner out of five runners to race so far on Thursday at Belmont. I Promise, out of the Affirmed mare Affirm...; [Posted June 29, 2007 08:30 AM]; ---

Help Hurricane Survivors -- Play the Ponies: Evangeline Downs is donating all of its revenues -- including simulcasting proceeds -- from Sunday night's card to Hurricane Katrina relief. Hoping to encourage participation, Alan of Left at the Gate had the great idea of getting racing bloggers to each analyze one of the day's races. Alan's done the second, Patrick of Pulling Hair and Betting Horses has the fourth, and Ruben of Your Average Horseplayer takes on the seventh. I'm doing the fifth, an open claiming $4000, six furlong event with a $13,000 purse. The field of six entered in this race has one standout -- Denton County....; [Posted September 3, 2005 10:00 AM]; ---

NTRA Contest Suffered Glitches: Said NTRA spokesman Eric Wing, explaining to Matt Hegarty that "computer malfunctions caused wrong results to be posted during the day on the site's leader board, and that the NTRA took the board down in order to fix the problems." As for allegations of past-posting -- "That absolutely did not happen" (Daily Racing Form). So, all is well now and the Claiming Crown Contest was not compromised in any way. This guy isn't buying that....; [Posted July 20, 2005 05:55 PM]; ---

NTRA Contest Results ...: Are up, after "going through the normal 48-hour audit." There still seem to be some gremlins in the tabulations. These are the results given on the front page as of Monday evening: Click on the image to see it full size And these are the results as posted on the leaderboard: Click on the image to see it full size "Entry 1" actually appears no less than six times in the first 50 on the leaderboard, which suggests it's not a contestant's name, but a database field or ID or some such thing, so "Entry 1" could well be the...; [Posted July 18, 2005 09:45 PM]; ---

Hope Remains a Stablemate: The first weekend of December each year, Bob Roberts plays Keeneland's handicapping contest. This year, he decided to play at Turfway too. How did he do? "I've got a shiny green souvenir coffee mug from Keeneland and a $25 betting voucher door prize from Turfway, and that's it. Actually, that's not true. I bet and lost $15 of the voucher, then misplaced it, thus forfeiting the $10 balance to the cleaning crew or some eagle-eyed punter who gleefully found what I foolishly left behind." Too bad, but at least he still has hope: "I've got $304.90 left in the kitty...; [Posted December 9, 2004 08:00 AM]; ---

The Bartender's Tips: Last Saturday, the Happy Handicapper joined 91 others in an annual handicapping contest at Batavia Downs and lost badly: "He suffered one of the worst days of his handicapping life. He went 0 for 10 and lost all but $30 of his $1,000 contest bankroll. This was bad enough. But then his journalistic duties required him to interview the winner, a 36-year-old bartender named Dennis Duffy. Not only did Duffy turn his contest bankroll into $6,118, he also won about $5,000 in real money by wagering on his selections and hitting both of the day's Pick 4s." There was some...; [Posted November 13, 2004 11:55 AM]; ---

Quick and Easy: Don't want to spend 100 hours handicapping the Breeders' Cup? Steven Crist offers "the best 10-minute Breeders' Cup handicapping method I can think of." Ooh, what that might be? "Call it the Beyer Index System. The BIS is pretty simple. We take the Beyer Index, which is the average winning Beyer Speed Figure for each of the Breeders' Cup races since the figs were first published in 1990, and we see who in each field has already run that quickly or come very close. For overseas shippers, we use the handy if overly simplistic formula of Timeform-minus-13 equals Beyer." (Daily...; [Posted October 21, 2004 09:55 PM]; ---

The Best Time to Play: Jay Cronley muses on the psychology of horseplayers. "Some people don't even know there is a psychology to gambling, another large beer please Mister Bartender. Concerning the handicapping end of the game, a great horse player will pass on a race if the numbers or animals or connections aren't right. Pass a race if an ex-spouse has a lawyer calling? Never." (ESPN)...; [Posted September 10, 2004 06:40 AM]; ---

Recency Rules Have Changed: Except when they haven't. "Back in the day, the two bedrock rules for any respectable system were usually a) Eliminate any horse who has not run in the past 30 days and b) Award extra credit to any horse coming off a sharp race in the past 30 days," writes Dave Litfin. "The new order of things is closer to the following: Rule No. 1: Accept as contenders any horses who have not run in the past 30 days. Rule No. 2: Eliminate any horse coming off a sharp race in the past 30 days." But then along comes a...; [Posted September 5, 2004 08:20 PM]; ---

Saratoga Tipsheets Part of Tradition: "The tipsheet salesmen and their colorful wares are among the first images greeting a visitor to Saratoga, about 175 miles north of New York City, and are a reminder of horse racing's roots, when tracks featured a carnival-like atmosphere redolent of state fairs." The sheets are more than just local color though: "For those who visit Saratoga for a leisurely day at the races, the tipsheets cut through the dizzying data consumed by handicappers. And some days somebody else's picks pay off handsomely. As the racetrack saying goes, even a blind squirrel sometimes finds a nut." (New York Times)...; [Posted August 15, 2004 12:20 PM]; ---

Eat or Be Eaten: "If you're playing the race, you're screaming for a big-price horse. If you're not playing that particular race, it's time to become the world's biggest chalkhead. You don't want your competitors nailing a 20-to-1 shot, so you wind up rooting (but not aloud) for the race favorite to clunk home" (ESPN)....; [Posted July 4, 2004 10:51 AM]; ---

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