Big Brown Economics
The marketplace, hardly reasonable ...
Posted by JC, May 31, 2008 01:22 PM
New York State of Mind
Well, it was touch and go for awhile, but I've managed to convince the powers that be that our coverage of the Belmont Stakes just wouldn't be the same without my insights. So, rather than watching Big Brown's quest for history at Keeneland I'll be live on the scene.
While I'm not a big fan of the racing-needs-a-Triple-Crown-winner line of thinking, I can say that a Triple Crown winner would help my business because more advertisers would want to be a part of the issues devoting to covering such a historic event.
Offshore gambling site Bodog sums up why I don't think Big Brown winning the Triple Crown would be good for the sport: It lists odds on whether Big Brown will race past the Belmont Stakes. "Yes" is at 5-to-2 (+250) while "no" is at 1-to-4 (-400). That's not a lot of confidence that we'll see him in the Travers let alone in a showdown against Curlin.
Posted by Ed, May 29, 2008 10:11 PM
He Might Be Right
... on both counts. Said trainer Rick Dutrow in today's NTRA teleconference:
And earlier in the call:
I will give Dutrow this: He is charismatic, his confidence is compelling. And he hasn't been wrong about Big Brown yet.
Posted by JC, May 29, 2008 03:15 PM
The Spoiler
Jockey Edgar Prado, named to ride Casino Drive in the Belmont Stakes, knows how to dash Triple Crown dreams:
He's the perfect rider for Big Brown's presumed main rival.
Casino Drive, looking "elegant," half-worked, half-galloped in a time too slow to officially credit on Wednesday morning at Belmont. "He doesn't need to go fast," said racing manager Nobutaka Tada (DRF).
Posted by JC, May 29, 2008 01:15 AM
Material Information
On the IEAH web site, co-president Michael Iavarone is described as "a high-profile investment banker on Wall Street," but Bloomberg turns up a different story, reporting that the man behind the $50 million Big Brown stud deal and a proposed $100 million racing hedge fund is a sanctioned penny stock broker and failed dotcom bubble day trader.
The NYT adds a few more details: "Iavarone told The New York Times that he had worked for Goldman Sachs, the world's largest investment bank.... But he never worked for Goldman Sachs."
Iavarone said he couldn't reveal much about his background earlier, because it would have been "misunderstood." No, I doubt that's it ... everything that's recently come out is quite understandable, as is why he'd want to keep it quiet.
5/29 Addendum: Investors tell DRF they support IEAH. "We're all entitled to screw up a little in our pasts, and you get to make up for those things," said one. "They've been nothing but professionals." The same investor did admit, though, that the information, new to him, about Iavarone's experience, "disturbs me, maybe, a little bit."
Posted by JC, May 28, 2008 11:45 PM
100% Organic Foals
Here's an idea from T.D. Thornton for healthier horses:
It's all about changing the incentives ...
Posted by JC, May 28, 2008 03:15 PM
Wednesday Morning Notes
- The bird who chirped to Ernie that I preferred Divine Park over Commentator in the Met Mile had it right, although I profited little from the opinion, getting knocked out of a small pick three the leg before and missing the (logical in hindsight) $15.40 favorites' exacta, cashing only a straight win bet on the 2-1 Kiaran McLaughlin trainee. I can't claim any great handicapping insight: It seemed likely that Commentator would be pressured through torrid early fractions (as happened, with First Defence pushing the 6-5 favorite into first half fractions of :22.48 and :44.52) and Divine Park, coming off a superb win in the Westchester Handicap last month, seemed the obvious beneficiary in the stretch (as was the case, with the colt getting an ideal setup, closing in :26.94 into a final quarter timed in :27.30). I've also been partial to the son of Chester House since he debuted over the Aqueduct inner dirt two winters ago, and while Divine Park hasn't given any sign he's capable of brilliance -- unlike the occasionally flashy Commentator, gallant in second -- he has developed into a solid, game miler as a 4-year-old. The Met was Divine Park's third straight win this year; a skeptical Mike Watchmaker reports a Beyer of 109 for the race (DRF+).
- Those wondering how seriously to take Big Brown's latest quarter crack should take note of the recent success of another Ian McKinlay patient:
And trainer Shug McGaughey told the Times Union:
Good to know. So, if Big Brown loses the Belmont, the hoof is a handy excuse, but the reason may well be the distance or the rigors of pursuing the Triple Crown or anything else.
- Wagering security, just not a priority. Maybe the upcoming congressional hearings on horse racing should be expanded.
Posted by JC, May 28, 2008 10:30 AM
Progress Report
Farrier Ian McKinlay answers press questions at Belmont on Monday morning after working on the quarter crack in Big Brown's left front hoof.
Big Brown was back on track this morning, jogging a mile and half around Belmont. Trainer Rick Dutrow, who said on Monday morning that if the colt's hoof showed improvement Tuesday he would probably have Big Brown walked under tack around the shedrow instead of resuming training, told the AP the change of plans was good for Big Brown's head:
On Monday, hoof lameness specialist Ian McKinlay cleaned up the 3/4-inch quarter crack that emerged on Big Brown's left front hoof early Saturday, inserting stainless steel sutures to close the crack and stabilize the heel. Although he noted that some inflammation was present and said he'd like to see the coronet band looking a little healthier, McKinlay was confident Big Brown was on the mend and would be ready for the Belmont Stakes, "as long as we don't make any mistakes." In an email to Fran at Hoofcare last night, McKinlay reported that the hoof "went cold within five hours of lacing him up," which suggests McKinlay's confidence was well founded, as does this morning's activity. The farrier, working at Monmouth today, will re-examine Big Brown on Wednesday and determine the next steps for treatment.
In other Belmont news:
Out at the track early with Teresa and friends, we caught Tomcito, recovered from his post-Peter Pan myectomy, galloping a mile and three quarters around Belmont, as well as Tale of Ekati working six furlongs in an uninspiring 1:18.97 under jockey Eibar Coa, prompting trainer Barclay Tagg to mutter, "Two works before a Classic race and this is not what I wanted" (NY Daily News, not overheard by us). Slow as Tale of Ekati's move may have been, the work was the fastest of three at the distance.
Posted by JC, May 27, 2008 11:00 AM
Rumors True
The backstretch whispers were true: Big Brown has a "minor" quarter crack in his left front hoof, Rick Dutrow announced this morning, and although the undefeated colt has already missed two days of training and will likely miss three more, Dutrow remains optimistic about his chances in the Belmont Stakes two weeks from now. "The horse is in no discomfort, he doesn't even know anything is wrong," he told reporters. "Missing a few days of training is not going to hurt us at all" (NYT). Maybe this won't be the year the Triple Crown drought comes to an end after all.
Also rumored, but unconfirmed: That Kent Desormeaux's agent is angling for the call on Casino Drive, whose connections have pushed back a decision on the colt's jockey to Wednesday. Desormeaux rode Casino Drive to a win in the Peter Pan and gushed about his stride after ...
Posted by JC, May 25, 2008 02:15 PM
Saturday Night Notes
- Nice handicapping by Ed, who alerted us yesterday to Monastic Springs in the seventh at Belmont this afternoon. Check out the head-on replay on Cal Racing and marvel at the rough stretch run the blinkered first-time starter had to survive to hit the wire on top. Steadied behind the two leaders as the field entered the stretch, Monastic Springs tried to move into the clear on the outside at the same time that eventual runner-up He Struck It Rich began drifting in the same direction, forcing Monastic Springs into tight quarters with Bob's Star, who drifted slightly to the inside. Caught, the colt bulled through, causing bumping down the line, and was able to get up by a neck in the final yards, paying $27.80 for the win. An inquiry was conducted into the stretch run, but the stewards made no changes.
- In the fifth at Belmont, 72-1 Halation, a 4-year-old Lycius colt trying turf for the first time, graduated from the maiden ranks in his eighth start, giving rookie trainer David Prine his first win with his first starter. It's a heartwarming story.
- An ugly scene in the seventh at Hollywood, when front-runner Waveland Avenue broke down in deep stretch, tossing rider Jose Valdivia to the track. Gobbler's Knob, coming up the inside, veered to miss the stricken horse but was unable to get by and fell, unseating Taylor Baze. Both jockeys were able to walk off the track. Unfortunate Waveland Avenue, who had been drawing away to a convincing win, suffered a fatal front leg injury and was euthanized. The maiden special went to 54-1 Thrust, a bad actor at the gate, who balked at loading front or back for nearly five minutes and had to be blindfolded to get into the stall. He broke slowly and trailed the field by several lengths into the final turn, when he went five wide, began making up ground, and looked like a solid second coming down the center. Like commenter John, I'm wondering what's happened to the Cushion Track -- although I haven't seen injury or fatality rates for the surface this meet and can't say for certain, it does seem both are up significantly this spring.
- Steve Asmussen doesn't like the trash talk coming from a certain barn. "I don't want to hear a lot of worthless opinions about it. The proof is on the racetrack" (West Points).
Posted by JC, May 24, 2008 11:30 PM
I <3 Ipi Tombe
It wouldn't take a psychologist to figure out why I like the horses I do: I tend to favor the ones that prove me right.
I was at a Burger King eating lunch on the first Saturday of May 1998 handicapping that year's Derby undercard when a local asked me who I liked in the big race. "Real Quiet," I said. He scoffed, and me being the whippersnapper I'll never stop being said, "Well, it's your money, but he's going to win."
I never saw that guy again, but I bought the person who would eventually be the best man at my wedding eight years later dinner that night with my winnings.
Five years later I was in Las Vegas with another friend (who also would end up in my wedding). All weekend I had talked about one bet I wanted to make: Ipi Tombe in the Dubai Duty Free. The race was going off around 8 a.m. Pacific time. There were four of us on the trip, but only my future groomsman forwent sleep after a night of partying to hit up the Bally's sportsbook to watch and wager on 4-to-5 Ipi Tombe with me.
There may have been a dozen people in the sports book, and we were clearly the only ones cheering for the odds on Ipi Tombe as she opened up a three-length lead in the Nad al Sheba stretch. It's kind of embarrassing to think about how loudly we were cheering for a $3.60 winner, but we were young and in Vegas and having the time of our lives.
And now Ipi Tombe has done it for me again. I've had some stinker picks on this blog since I started writing Derby week. Going against Big Brown twice certainly hasn't made me look smart, but I got all that losing money back and then some after Monastic Springs rallied late to defeat He Struck It Rich (out of Desert Stormer) and pay $50.50 per $2 across the board. Now let's get this pick four home. :)
Posted by Ed, May 24, 2008 04:20 PM
Pedigree Alert
The seventh race on Saturday at Belmont Park is a maiden special weight affair for three-year-olds and up going seven furlongs on the turf, and the field of 12 expected to go postward contains more than a few interesting pedigrees led by Monastic Springs, a Sadler's Wells colt out of the world champion Zimbabwe-bred turf mare Ipi Tombe.
Colts Neck Stables bred Monastic Springs in Great Britain, but he starts here for Jayeff B Stables and trainer Alan Goldberg, who fires 20% from a 25-starter sample according to Daily Racing Form statistics. I'd be more interested, of course, for the breakdown on three-year-old first-time starters going short on the turf.
Ipi Tombe's other foal, the two-year-old Pivotal filly Pin Turn also is in the U.S. despite being bred in Great Britain. I wonder if Jayeff B acquired both children?
Also in the race is #1A Elusive Gift, an Edward P Evans Elusive Quality colt out of Christmas Gift, dam of Grade 1 winner Christmas Kid and kin to such luminaries (pun intended) as Bright Candles and Grand Slam.
#5 He Struck It Rich is out of Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Desert Stormer, herself a graded stakes producer.
#6 Bob's Star is out of Grade 2 winner Star of Broadway from a family that includes champion Pleasant Stage and Grade 1 winner Seattle Meator.
#10 Phenomenal Cat is a three-quarter brother to champion Johannesburg.
At the morning line, I'd have to stick with the horse I led with -- Monastic Springs. It'd be criminal to see a horse with that pedigree win first time out and pay $15.
Posted by Ed, May 23, 2008 08:57 PM
Very Promising
Music Note, so promising in her two starts last fall, won for fun this afternoon in the third at Belmont, her first race in more than six months. Relaxed and on the rail, she tracked the pace two lengths behind until the top of the stretch turn, when rider Javier Castellano nudged her to the outside and gave her a couple taps of the whip on the shoulder. Under a handride, the 8-5 favorite finished seven lengths ahead of the pricey Todd Pletcher-trained Charming, described in the results chart as "powerless to stall the winner" (PDF). So true. I hope this one shows up in a stakes next -- she certainly has the breeding, being a 3-year-old filly by A.P. Indy out of the unraced Sadler's Wells mare Note Musicale (whose dam was the champion filly It's in the Air) and a half-sister to the mare Musical Chimes, winner of the 2003 French 1000 Guineas and the 2004 Mabee Handicap and Oak Tree Mile (she was retired in 2005). Final time for the mile allowance was 1:35.92, with a final quarter of :24.62.
5/23 Update: Rick Mettee said Music Note would be nominated to the Acorn, but was more likely to start next in the Mother Goose on June 28.
Posted by JC, May 22, 2008 04:10 PM
Thursday Morning Links
- Racing journalism has its problems, but access to the sport's (human) stars isn't one. In this way, at least, being a niche sport benefits fans and writers, unlike baseball.
- The Quick-Pick inquiry spreads, wild finger pointing begins, and a California state legislator notices that there's no independent wagering monitor. Uh oh.
- Pittsburg Phil, Noted Plunger, Passes Away. Consumption, such a shame. He was just at Ascot last year.
- Dutrow has yet to confirm post-Belmont plans for Big Brown with IEAH, but he's considering the Travers and the Breeders' Cup Classic. Curlin vs. Brown -- we can dream.
- How they take those pics: Wired at the Preakness Stakes.
- Mike Brunker is looking prescient. Flashback to his April 1 column, in which he not only predicted Big Brown's Derby win, but went a couple steps further: "This is a colt with the talent to end the 29-year Triple Crown drought ..."
Posted by JC, May 22, 2008 11:30 AM
On Bellyaching
I've been accused of late, in emails and comments, of not being properly enthusiastic about Big Brown, so let me give the horse his due: Big Brown is a phenomenal talent, a freak, and he would be coming out of any barn. He's dominated every start, he's shown that he can rate or lead, that he can break from the inside or the outside. He accelerates effortlessly, and he displays qualities exhibited by past great racehorses -- he makes every race look like his own and every horse he beats look second-rate.
I hope he wins the Triple Crown. It's been 30 years; racing fans deserve a superstar.
Apparently, that's all I'm supposed to say. Anything else is "bellyaching."
You know, over the past two weeks, we've heard endlessly that racing is in crisis, that racing must change, that the sport has to deal with its drug problem and breed more durable horses.
Last Saturday, both ESPN and NBC dedicated panels to discussing these and other issues and everyone involved earnestly agreed to the necessity of reform.
Not 10 minutes after the NBC segment wrapped, Bob Costas was announcing a stud deal for lightly-raced Big Brown.
A few minutes later, NTRA president Alex Waldrop appeared and, among other things, promised that racing would be steroids free by 2009, without even giving a nod to the fact that the Preakness favorite -- and more than likely, half the field -- was on steroids as a matter of course.
And yet all that, as well as trainer Rick Dutrow's lengthy record and questionable character, should be put aside.
Well, I can't do that. Big Brown, on the verge of a historic achievement, embodies racing's rot. I watch his races and feel the transcendence that great horses offer -- I really meant it when I said he's phenomenal -- but then the disenchantment comes on.
To stop talking now about Dutrow's career and methods, or IEAH's rush to stud and its business plan and what it all means, is to give the racing establishment a pass on the problems corroding our beloved sport.
Racing is compromised, its future success threatened, and to refuse to grapple with the contradictions and questions that surround Big Brown is to willingly put on blinkers.
But I guess desperately wanting to celebrate a Triple Crown winner nullifies any claims integrity or intellectual honesty make on our consciences. As David Brooks wrote of the unsavory Melmotte, "Dishonesty becomes acceptable so long as it contributes to success." Hear, hear.
Posted by JC, May 21, 2008 01:30 PM
Back to the '70s
In slightly more than two weeks, Big Brown will attempt to become the 12th Triple Crown winner, the first in 30 years and only the second undefeated. In this brief lull before Belmont Stakes anticipation explodes, it seems worthwhile to take a quick look back at the last three ...
The Rivals
It began during their 1977 2-year-old campaigns and continued through every Triple Crown race. In 1978, the story was the rivalry of Affirmed and Alydar, which reached its apex in the one mile match race that unfolded during the Belmont Stakes:
Alydar became known as the only horse to finish second in every spring classic, a sort of shadow Triple Crown winner.
More: SI cover / recap / Derby replay / Preakness replay
The Undefeated
Seattle Slew went into the Belmont a perfect 8-for-8, but that wasn't enough to quell the doubters, who complained about his slow Wood victory over an undistinguished field and groused that his Kentucky Derby win wasn't all that impressive. The 1977 Belmont convinced even the most ardent skeptics that Slew was no slouch:
It was "the easiest win race of his career," said trainer Billy Turner after. From the start:
The following year, Seattle Slew met Affirmed in the Marlboro Cup, where as the 2-1 second choice, he wired the field and won by four lengths despite going wide on the final turn. Affirmed, the 1-2 favorite, finished second.
More: SI cover / recap / Derby replay / Preakness replay
The Greatest
Secretariat, transcendent in 1973:
Secretariat won by 31 lengths and knocked more than two seconds off the track record. His performance was then, and it still remains:
More: Photo / recap / Derby replay / Preakness replay
Posted by JC, May 21, 2008 10:00 AM
The Other Contenders
- Tale of Ekati worked for the first time since finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby, zipping four furlongs in :46.84 at Belmont on Tuesday morning. "He went a little faster than we wanted, but he did it easy," said assistant trainer Robin Smullen, who confirmed that the Belmont Stakes was the colt's next likely start. "We realize that Big Brown is a very salty customer, but Tale of Ekati is doing awfully well" (DRF). Along with Tale of Ekati, two other Derby starters are likely -- Denis of Cork and Anak Nakal -- as are two Preakness starters -- Icabad Crane and runner-up Macho Again.
- Casino Drive, widely considered Big Brown's main rival, remains without a jockey. "We are leaving our options open," said racing manager Nobutaka Tada. "Fortunately, many good riders are interested" (Blood-Horse). Over on Green But Game, Dana considers who she would like to see on the half-brother of Rags to Riches and Jazil and narrows the possibilities down to Castellano or Prado ...
- Music Note reappears. The 3-year-old A.P Indy filly made her debut last fall in a maiden special that turned out to be a major key race, returned three weeks later to win her second start by an impressive 7 1/2 lengths while under a handride, and then was shipped to Dubai for the winter, where she apparently didn't race. On Thursday, she makes her first start for trainer Saeed bin Suroor in the third, a one mile N1X, which drew a couple promising maiden winners in the Seeking the Gold filly Charming ($3.2 million Keeneland yearling purchase) and the Barclay Tagg-trained Song of Love (half to Nobiz Like Shobiz), as well as A Rose for You, making her second start for Kiaran McLaughlin.
- Interesting: "It's impossible to overlook the fact that every Grade 1 winner [Dutrow has] had since Carson Hollow in 2002 had started his or her career in another barn."
- Epoxy, Whistle Dick, and 498 more bad horse names.
Posted by JC, May 20, 2008 09:30 PM
Big Brown in Town
- About 75 reporters, photographers, and gawkers were waiting for Big Brown and his entourage at Belmont when the colt arrived by van from Pimlico early Monday afternoon to settle into a stall in trainer Bobby Frankel's barn, where he'll await the final leg of the Triple Crown. With a little less than three weeks to go and many column inches to fill, silly season is open, Vic Ziegel reports in the Daily News:
More hotel bookings for the weekend of June 6-8? Traffic?
- Trainer Rick Dutrow said Big Brown ran down his hind heels in the Preakness, but that the abrasions were minor and being treated with a topical ointment. "It won't happen next time because I will put patches and bandages on him" (Blood-Horse). More on rundowns from Fran at Hoofcare.
- Gary West, in fine form, takes on the hypocrisy and ignorance suffusing some corners of the post-Kentucky Derby debate over safety in racing:
- Dr. Mary Scollay has been hired by KHRA as its first equine medical director. Best known for development of an injury reporting system that launched last year, Scollay will continue her studies on breakdowns, as well as advise on medication policies and oversee drug research. "I wish I had her two weeks ago," said director Lisa Underwood (AP).
- Gategate @ Churchill Downs (top right column, don't miss the illustration at bottom). KHRA is investigating.
Posted by JC, May 20, 2008 02:45 PM
Triple Crown, Huh, What Is it Good For?
Absolutely nothing, of course.
This idea that the sport needs a Triple Crown winner is laughable. So Big Brown wins the Triple Crown, Joe Public gets attached, and then never sees the horse again? How is that good for the sport?
The idea that Big Brown winning the Triple Crown will make someone go check out the races at Grants Pass Downs or Yakima Meadows is akin to saying that someone breaking the world record for running a mile will make more people go to their local high school track meet.
People want to see greatness, which is why 100,000-plus people will go to Belmont and millions will watch on TV.
Indeed, the pursuit of a Triple Crown is infinitely more valuable than the Triple Crown itself especially when the best horses in the race all these "new fans" are about to watch are headed to the breeding shed and back to Japan afterward.
Posted by Ed, May 19, 2008 10:34 AM
Cede the Crown
The Triple Crown? It's a done deal for super Big Brown:
Meanwhile, Andrew Beyer plays spoilsport. At least one commentator is keeping a little perspective ...
Posted by JC, May 18, 2008 11:45 PM
Sunday Night Links
- The dress code at Saratoga will be more casual this summer. "It's the way the world is headed," said NYRA spokesman John Lee of the changes (Gazette). Men in tank tops will remain forbidden in the clubhouse. Thank goodness.
- Spin! "The truth of the matter is, once we eliminate use of anabolic steroids, we will have arrived at the European drug model with some variations." Those variations, so minor -- just Lasix, phenylbutazone, and cortiscosteroids.
- Magnificience returns triumphant from a 13-month layoff.
Posted by JC, May 18, 2008 11:40 PM
Three Chimneys, Racing at Four
An oldie but goodie from December 2006 (please ignore the typo in the first paragraph, LOL).
Posted by Ed, May 18, 2008 06:37 PM
Let the Hype Begin
Big Brown just made the Preakness look like a NY-bred allowance race over the Aqueduct inner track and now heads to Belmont as the first contender for the Triple Crown since Smarty Jones ... and regardless of how he does there, he'll likely retire immediately after to Three Chimneys, which bought stallion rights to the Boundary colt for $50 million.
5/18 Addendum: The final time of 1:54.80 translates into a Beyer speed figure of 100 for Big Brown. Just as his Derby figure didn't reflect ground loss or the headwind he raced into, so this one doesn't reflect the strong hold Desormeaux had on him down the backstretch, or the rider wrapping him up in the stretch, saving a little for the Belmont, or the easy dominance Big Brown displayed over a weak field.
Posted by JC, May 17, 2008 06:30 PM
Meanwhile, at Belmont
Jockey Mike Luzzi earned his 3000th career win in the nightcap aboard Too Tough Pete, making his second start for trainer Richard Schosberg, another whose barn is running well this spring (he's now 11-4-2-1 through Saturday). Luzzi scored win number 2999 the race before, when Cowgirls Don't Cry captured the Shuvee Handicap by 2 1/4 lengths over favored Rite Moment. (Aside: Add Shuvee to the list of great distaffers who raced males without problem. The Triple Tiara-winning filly took the Jockey Club Gold Cup not once, but twice. Brooklyn Backstretch recounts.)
Posted by JC, May 17, 2008 05:53 PM
Preakness Picks
Ed's picks:
Kentucky Bear has flashed the kind of talent required to win this race.
Trainer Reade Baker has said that Big Brown does not even need to bounce off his winning Kentucky Derby effort for Kentucky Bear to win. While I don't agree with that, I do think that Big Brown will react to his big effort two weeks ago, and that Kentucky Bear is the most likely winner if that happens.
Racecar Rhapsody ran some quick races at two, and this one looks to be rounding back into top form for trainer Ken McPeek in his third start off the layoff.
Racing Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito has told anyone who will listen that Stevil will hit the board, and Zito's friends did hit the superfecta last year when Hemingway's Key finished third.
Look, I'm not stupid. Big Brown is the most likely winner, but there will be overlays in the exotic pool. Kentucky Bear has some steam on him, so I'll play Big Brown on top of Stevil and Racecar Rhapsody in tris and key Kentucky Bear in the supers. Then I'll back that up with Kentucky Bear, Racecar Rhapsody, and Stevil exacta boxes and them on top of Big Brown.
JC's picks:
Steroids-enhanced Big Brown is 1-9 in early wagering and with his triple-Beyer advantage, he'll be hard to beat. Going with probability, I'll play Big Brown over Racecar Rhapsody, Giant Moon, and Hey Byrn.
Posted by Ed, May 17, 2008 11:40 AM
Strong Words
"[Eight Belles broke down] right where Raise a Native was the weakest, right in the ankles, and everybody acts like they don't know what caused this filly to break down. It's written right there for everyone to see! Except they refuse to see it. To admit it is to address the fact that all these stallions that are bred like that, that all the yearlings that are bred like that, are potential accidents waiting to happen."
Posted by JC, May 16, 2008 10:25 PM
Double Will-Pays
Pimlico Special-Preakness double will-pays from Ed.
The daily double wager linking the Pimlico Special Handicap (G1) with the Preakness Stakes (G1) provided few surprises in how the betting will go for the middle jewel of racing's Triple Crown on Saturday, as the double with Special winner Student Council and Big Brown would pay $20.20.
Student Council paid $16.40 to win, which translates to a 1-5 price on Big Brown. The second choice was Gayego, the only other Derby starter to enter the Preakness, at $235.80, which is about 14-1.
Special-Preakness double will-pays:
| # | Horse | Will-Pay | Win Odd Equiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macho Again | $569.80 | 37-1 |
| 2 | Tres Borrachos | $1162.80 | 78-1 |
| 3 | Icabad Crane | $587.60 | 38-1 |
| 4 | Yankee Bravo | $410.20 | 26-1 |
| 5 | Behindatthebar | SCR | SCR |
| 6 | Racecar Rhapsody | $391.20 | 25-1 |
| 7 | Big Brown | $20.20 | 1-5 |
| 8 | Kentucky Bear | $287.60 | 18-1 |
| 9 | Stevil | $915.40 | 59-1 |
| 10 | Riley Tucker | $567.40 | 36-1 |
| 11 | Giant Moon | $544.80 | 35-1 |
| 12 | Gayego | $235.80 | 14-1 |
| 13 | Hey Byrn | $572.20 | 34-1 |
| Equivalent win odds = approximately 119.3% | |||
Related: Steven Crist has fun with the numbers, reworking the odds without Big Brown.
Posted by JC, May 16, 2008 09:00 PM
Friday Morning Notes
- On Thursday, Big Brown galloped a mile and a half at Pimlico, got a new pair of glue-on shoes on his front feet, and probably got a shot of the legal steroid Winstrol:
Asked recently why he uses the supplement, Dutrow replied:
Prompting this hilarious follow-up conversation, which was reported by the Baltimore Sun:
Right, he knows nothing about what Winstrol does or why he likes it. I wonder if Dutrow, who maintains he has had only one medication violation in his career, knows more about the phenylbutazone overages at Gulfstream and Calder that went on his record this year (PDF).
- More about Big Brown's new shoes and heels at Hoofcare.
- Behindatthebar is out of the Preakness. The Lexington winner came up with a bruised left front foot this morning.
- Dick Powell, pondering the Preakness, gets conspiratorial: "Why are a dozen mediocre sophomores willing to take him on? What do their connections know or suspect?"
- The stud deal for Big Brown, which was to be announced on Thursday, is on hold. "Legal issues and time constraints proved too much to overcome," said IEAH president Michael Iavorone, "and we will revisit all options following the Preakness" (ThoroTimes).
- Thoroughbred Safety Committee chairman Stuart Janney said the day after the committee met for the first time that there were "relatively few" things the Jockey Club could do to enforce recommendations that might emerge from the panel's deliberations and so the committee would mainly serve "as a bully pulpit to be persuasive on certain matters" (Blood-Horse). This is when I miss being a reporter: Such a statement, which suggests no forthcoming threats to the status quo, brings up several questions I'd love to ask. For instance: As the official breed registry -- the organization through which every thoroughbred must be registered in order to race and breed -- what hinders the Jockey Club from establishing rules regarding the age a horse enters stud service or forbidding the use for breeding of horses that ran on certain raceday medications? Surely, TJC has more power than just approving racehorse names.
- The Wall Street Journal follows Jess Jackson to Argentina, where the prominent owner scouts for sturdy breeding stock.
- Magnificience returns! Sunday, Hollywood, third race.
Posted by JC, May 16, 2008 10:30 AM
Two Points for Honesty
I've read a lot of chastising of Michael Ivarone for him having stated that Big Brown would likely not race as a four-year-old.
Personally, I appreciate the honesty and sparing us the song and dance. Remember Smarty Jones and the hoopla that surrounded him? His owners swore from here to doomsday that their Elusive Quality colt would race at four. He didn't.
Three Chimneys stands Smarty Jones, War Chant, and Point Given, three horses that did not race at four. Three Chimneys is one of two breeding operations (along with Coolmore's Ashford Stud) believed to be in line to acquire Big Brown's services when he retires.
I don't hold it against owners who take the money. In almost all instances they invest back into the sport anyway. More than anything I hate lip service, and Ivarone was honest.
It's not like it's his decision, anyway. The stud farm probably told him "this year and that's it." Just like Darley told the owners of Any Given Saturday, Hard Spun, and Street Sense.
Posted by Ed, May 15, 2008 11:24 PM
A Terrible Accident
According to the final necropsy results (PDF) released today by the KHRA, there was no "catastrophic event," no heart attack or pulmonary aneurysm that felled Eight Belles as she galloped out after finishing second in the Derby, causing her leg injuries. The report concluded that the filly suffered compound fractures in both front legs at the fetlock joints, for which she was euthanized on track, and noted that "no pre-existing bone pathology was observed." In other words: She was sound and what happened was a terrible accident.
5/16 Update: KHRA reports that Eight Belles tested negative for steroids and other substances.
Posted by JC, May 15, 2008 04:50 PM
We Get It, Now Shut Up
Forget history, forget science. Just cherry pick a few high-profile examples, make a few specious connections, ignore evidence to the contrary. We get it: In certain testosterone-addled minds, fillies and mares can't compete against males without risking death or a barren womb:
Tell that to Makybe Diva, Ouija Board, Gorella, Soviet Song, Intercontinental, Azeri, Serena's Song, Sharp Cat, Dahlia, Personal Ensign, Lady's Secret, Miesque, Imp, Regret, Busher, Gallorette, and Beldame.
And then shut up.
Of all the debates that have arisen following Eight Belles' tragic post-Derby accident, the one over whether fillies should race colts is the most ridiculous, the most baseless, the most groundless. It's a bizarre superimposition of human sexism over equine abilities, and it's tiresome and distracting, especially when there are more significant issues to address -- like doping, track surfaces, and breeding.
Really care about protecting horses? Then worry about the matters that actually affect their safety. Hint: None have anything to do with gender.
Posted by JC, May 15, 2008 11:00 AM
Big Brown Won't Race at Four
Owners will announce stud deal on Thursday.
Posted by Ed, May 14, 2008 08:57 PM
Preakness Post Positions
| PP | Horse | Jockey | ML |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Macho Again | Leparoux | 20-1 |
| 2 |  Tres Borrachos | Baze | 30-1 |
| 3 |  Icabad Crane | Rose | 30-1 |
| 4 |  Yankee Bravo | Solis | 15-1 |
| 5 |  Behindatthebar | Flores | SCR |
| 6 |  Racecar Rhapsody | Albarado | 30-1 |
| 7 |  Big Brown | Desormeaux | 1-2 |
| 8 |  Kentucky Bear | Theriot | 15-1 |
| 9 |  Stevil | Velazquez | 30-1 |
| 10 |  Riley Tucker | Prado | 30-1 |
| 11 |  Giant Moon | Dominguez | 30-1 |
| 12 |  Gayego | Smith | 8-1 |
| 13 |  Hey Byrn | Lopez | 20-1 |
Posted by JC, May 14, 2008 06:00 PM
Better than Big Red
At least, on the Sheets, reports John Scheinman:
I would like to believe that Big Brown is a once-in-a-lifetime horse and cheer him on to a Triple Crown, but what holds me back isn't just a snobbish distaste for his connections, it's the unresolvable question both Patrick, in his post "Big Brown Bonds," and Jeremy Plonk, in his column "Derby Drugs," have written about recently -- how much of the immense talent displayed so far by Big Brown is natural and how much is assisted? The horse is blameless, but there's an asterisk next to his name regardless.
Posted by JC, May 13, 2008 01:45 PM
Yes, Yes, and Yes
"Tired of death? Tired of protests? Tired of strangers analyzing our sport?"
Posted by JC, May 13, 2008 01:30 PM
Maddening Media
The situation with Eight Belles has illustrated my disdain for the media.
Unfortunately, most outlets tell the story they want to tell rather than the actual story. The vocal minority gets the soundbytes while anyone who's really in the mix goes ignored.
A story in the Lexington Herald-Leader commented that the Eight Belles tragedy has turned people off the sport. It quoted one woman who lives in Sunbury, Ohio, who said she didn't even watch the Derby because of a previous incident at a three-day eventing event.
How could Eight Belles's death have turned her off if she didn't watch to begin with?
Now, obviously, I know a lot of insiders, but I have plenty of friends who are casual fans. They tune in to the Derby and don't mind a trip to the track or two a year. None of them were turned off. Most said, "That was too bad about the filly, but boy did that winner run a great race!"
I haven't talked to one person who is involved in the business on even a weekly level who has given up on it. Most are asking themselves needed questions, and the incident has brought to light important issues, but the idea that the sport is in (any more) trouble (than it already was) simply isn't true.
I'm going to go on record and predict record handle for the Preakness Stakes (assuming fast and firm, LOL)!
Posted by Ed, May 12, 2008 04:22 PM
That Scamp
- Trainer Rick Dutrow's transformation from crass cheat to lovable rogue with tragic backstory continues. Having a Kentucky Derby winner sure improves your media coverage.
- The one horse Dutrow claimed to respect in the Preakness is out. Withers winner Harlem Rocker will pass the second leg of the Triple Crown to prep for the Queen's Plate, a more logical spot for the speedy son of Macho Uno. "He wants to play it conservative for now," said trainer Todd Pletcher of owner Frank Stronach's decision (DRF). Recapturetheglory, who came down with fever over the weekend, is also out, which means Big Brown will face a field that may have grown to 13 but could contain no other Derby starters.
- Aided by favored Lethal Heat's stumble out of the gate, Million Dollar Run went from maiden to graded stakes winner in her second start, the Railbird Stakes at Hollywood on Sunday, and she did it most impressively, tracking first half fractions of :22.13 and :44.55, dueling, then drawing away to run the final furlong in :12.32. It's another improbable 3-year-old accomplishment -- coincidence, or do Million Dollar Run, Casino Drive, and Big Brown indicate a trend?
- The best stakes race this weekend happened at Lone Star:
Posted by JC, May 12, 2008 02:00 PM
Casino Drive 101
- He acted up in the paddock and ran greenly in the stretch, but there's no quibbling with the raw talent Casino Drive displayed winning the Peter Pan, for which the 3-year-old colt was given a Beyer speed figure of 101. "He was good, but he was not top form," said racing manager Nobutaka Tada after the race. "There's so much [room] for him to improve" (DRF). This spring is really shaping up as the season of young horses accomplishing the improbable ... and like commenter John S., I'm not sure how much I enjoy or understand this sort of racing, however exciting to watch.
- I can't help but read this story as a metaphor:
Dutrow said the only reason the roses weren't draped over the Derby winner was because Big Brown is scared of flowers, although that hardly explains what followed.
- Goodbye, Bay Meadows: "It's like an old friend who's dying," said former track chairman John Harris. "You hope you can spend more time with them before they're gone."
- New! Railbird friend Bill, of RacingFigures.com, has launched a video blog with group and graded stakes replays. Now available for viewing: The Peter Pan, French Guineas, and English Guineas, with more to come ...
Posted by JC, May 11, 2008 09:15 PM
As True in 2008
... as it was in 1984, when the Queen toured the Bluegrass looking for suitable studs for her broodmares:
I came across the article linked above while searching for more information on Spendthrift, which is the subject of a new book by Mary Marshall, "Great Breeders and Their Methods: Leslie Combs II and Spendthrift Farm." The book suffers from workmanlike prose but is redeemed by its accidental timeliness, since Marshall recounts in painstaking detail both the history of the legendary farm and the biographies of its major horses such as Raise a Native and Mr. Prospector -- names coming up often lately in the debate over breeding that's erupted following Eight Belles' accident galloping out after the Kentucky Derby.
Posted by JC, May 11, 2008 04:50 PM
Place in History
Casino Drive laid over the field in the Peter Pan on Saturday, prompting all sorts of excitement for the Belmont Stakes in four weeks.
Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but where would producing three consecutive Belmont Stakes winners place Better Than Honour in the history of the turf? Greatest bloodstock achievement in history? Certainly, yes, but how about in comparison to Secretariat's 1973 Triple Crown or Woody Stephens's five consecutive Belmont victories?
Keeping the perspective to this year only, if Big Brown wins the Preakness, he could head to Belmont as a wagering favorite but not a fan favorite (a la Sunday Silence).
It will be interesting to read Kent Desormeaux's comments about Casino Drive. I liked the way he split horses turning for home. He looked a bit green in the stretch, but it was his second career start off a long layoff and ship, so the four weeks and added distance should help this one out a lot.
Gotta love the idea of getting 5-to-2 on this one in the Belmont if Big Brown rolls in the Preakness.
Update: Kent Desormeaux said that team Big Brown "has its hands full" while the trainer said that his star pupil was not in top form.
I'll likely be wagering against Big Brown 166 hours from now, but I'll at the very least be cheering for him to head to Belmont for a showdown with Casino Drive.
Posted by Ed, May 10, 2008 05:34 PM
The (Next to) Last Foal*
... of the great racemare (and equally great broodmare) Personal Ensign makes his debut in the fourth at Belmont this afternoon. Listed at 8-1 on the morning line and showing three April works, Baronial, a 3-year-old Kingmambo colt, attempts six furlongs over the Widener turf** for trainer Shug McGaughey. He's an unlikely winner today -- McGaughey takes time with his blueblood stock, and the field includes Bedford Arch, who finished third in his March debut at Gulfstream, as well as 4-year-old Forest of Dreams, returning from a lengthy layoff for trainer Jimmy Jerkens, and the live Just a Warning from Frank Alexander's barn -- but could be one for the watch list, being a 3/4 brother to G1 winners Miner's Mark and and Traditionally.
* I mistakenly called Baronial the last foal, but according to Wikipedia, Personal Ensign's final foal is a 2006 Forest Wildcat colt1. She was pensioned in September of that year.
** That is, if races don't come off the turf2 and the horse isn't scratched. There's a lot of rain in NYC this morning.
1 Alan reports in the comments that Pedigree Query lists the 2006 colt as dead. Poor baby. So, beautifully bred Baronial is the last foal of his champion dam to race.
2 And so the races are, unsurprisingly, given the weather. Only two scratches in race four, but race seven is gutted.
Posted by JC, May 9, 2008 08:15 AM
Friday Morning Links
- Trainer Rick Dutrow's confidence, which dipped regarding the Preakness immediately after Big Brown's Derby win, has begun to return:
I might put it at 3-1. As Dutrow said, "if he runs like a 5," the Preakness is no problem. The Belmont is another matter ...
- Of course, the Preakness won't be a breeze, not with the field swelling to nine. Recapturetheglory, fifth in the Derby, will be among the starters, and he'll get a slight equipment change for the race -- trainer Louis Roussel plans to stuff cotton in the colt's ears to block out crowd noise at Pimlico and prevent a reprise of the colt's Derby day bad behavior, reports TDN. Post positions will be drawn on Wednesday.
- No flattery here for an unseasonably tanned and gelled master of the universe: "The spirit of Gordon Gekko is alive and well ... in the suddenly public persona of thoroughbred horse racing's entrepreneur du jour, Michael Iavarone."
- "When Bob Baffert shows up at Lone Star, a good horse race can't be far behind."
- Colonel John, apparently unscathed by his sixth-place Derby finish, could start next in the Swaps at Hollywood.
Posted by JC, May 9, 2008 08:10 AM
Safety Committee Formed
The Jockey Club, with its usual opacity, has created and announced a Thoroughbred Safety Committee in response to the outcry that followed the death of Eight Belles last Saturday. I'm assuming, since the announcement contains no direct mention of the filly, the Kentucky Derby, or any the criticism that's been leveled at the industry this week.
Press release text below:
Note: Will encourage, not mandate, not regulate.
Meanwhile, amid all this talk of improving safety and the breed, IEAH co-president Michael Iavorone boasted on Wednesday that a stallion deal for lightly-raced, achy-hooved Big Brown is nearing completion, and that the farms bidding for the Derby winner's breeding rights included "one of the most widely recognized stud farms in the world" (Blood-Horse). All the outrage over Eight Belles' unfortunate death, all the urgent discussion about what happened and what should be done differently, all the critics piling on Rick Porter and Larry Jones -- I think we're talking about the wrong horse, the wrong connections. Big Brown represents the racing industry gone awry, not the filly.
Update: The committee will meet for the first time on May 14 and release a timeline and summary of goals afterward.
Related: The committee needs an independent voice, someone not vested in the industry, writes Alex Brown over on the Rail. Good point.
Posted by JC, May 8, 2008 09:05 AM
Incentivizing
To change the breed, change the tracks, writes Jay Hovdey in his latest column (DRF+):
Makes sense. For breeders to produce horses with qualities other than precocious speed, there must be a market ...
Posted by JC, May 7, 2008 08:30 PM
At Belmont Today
- Trainer Pat Reynolds (the man who lost Big Brown) is in a slump, with only one winner out of his 15 horse stable this year, and I have some reservations that Money Manager, breaking from post 12 on Belmont's inner turf, will turn things around, but despite being on the outside the horse looks good today in race four, a competitive 1 1/16 mile maiden claiming event. In his last start, dropping out of maiden special company and trying turf for the first time, Money Manager showed more speed and interest than he had in his two previous races, finishing third, 2 1/2 lengths behind Maddy's Crowd, who came back to win an allowance at Atlantic City last Friday with a 90 Beyer. Money Manager is the tepid 7-2 morning line favorite in the race; Footloose Man, entering off back-to-back seconds for trainer Mark Hennig, is second at 4-1. Also of interest: Ghazi the Great, making his second start for trainer Barclay Tagg. Fans of Cornelio on the grass will note he picks up the mount.
- Preliminary necropsy results on Eight Belles indicate the filly didn't die of heart failure or an aneurysm, said owner Rick Porter. "It came from the leg injuries" (DRF). The filly is also being tested for steroids, at trainer Larry Jones' insistence, in response to intimations from post-Derby critics that Eight Belles was on performance-enhancing supplements. "I guarantee there were no steroids ever on the horse," an emotional Jones told reporters gathered for a press conference on Tuesday at Delaware Park (AP).
- The Preakness field is looking thin, with only seven confirmed starters as of Tuesday. San Rafael Stakes winner El Gato Malo is the latest defection, pointing to the Lone Star Derby instead of taking on Big Brown at Pimlico.
Posted by JC, May 7, 2008 10:30 AM
And Yet They Continue
A committee is at work on a durability stats database for breeders, but disagreements hinder its development.
Related: Superfecta asks, "Who would you geld today?"
Posted by JC, May 6, 2008 05:00 PM
Chicken or Egg
Abolishing horse racing would abolish the Thoroughbred whose purpose as a racehorse dominates any reason that it might otherwise exist.
I've read a couple articles about how horse racing has turned off some fans. I've yet to talk to anyone actually invested in the industry who has turned away from it. The breeding sheds were still open on May 4, the tellers took bets on the day's races, and Fasig-Tipton didn't cancel any of its upcoming sales.
The thing that astonishes me is that the whole situation seems to have surprised people. Barbaro's accident was only two years ago, and all the stats about horses breaking down were made available then.
While horse racing isn't as popular as it used to be, it's not a secret either. Anyone who really cares about the welfare of animals could have gotten involved in a number of ways before Eight Belles' demise. Sadly, many groups just see this as a chance for publicity.
Posted by Ed, May 6, 2008 03:58 PM
Tuesday Afternoon Notes
- Although several of my conversations since Saturday have been about the Kentucky Derby, impressive Big Brown and his connections, Eight Belles and her sad end, I've barely posted anything in this space. I tend to shut up when everyone else is shouting, which I suppose makes me a lousy blogger, but it seems so unnecessary to jump in when so many other sensible people are making the same points I would: Gender had nothing to do with Eight Belles' breakdown, jockey Gabriel Saez is not to blame (regardless of what uninformed spokespeople for fringe groups say), racing is not in itself brutal or cruel but reforms across the board are needed to improve safety and the breed. As an industry, it's time to take stock and figure out how to protect horses, whether they're running in claiming races or the Kentucky Derby. Now, where's the racing commissioner who's going to make all this happen? Even Eight Belles' owner Rick Porter is calling for one in the wake of the Derby.
- King Kaufman's account of watching the Derby with his young daughter made me a little misty:
- If there's a silver lining in Saturday's tragic events for anyone, it's trainer Rick Dutrow, whose colorful character and checkered past aren't getting as much attention as they might have. At Woodbine, though, where Dutrow won the Queen's Plate with Wild Desert after prepping the horse in secret, people haven't forgotten his record.
- From claiming races to the Derby in five years. Easy.
- "The inmates officially are running the asylum."
- Big Brown has been insured for $50 million.
Posted by JC, May 6, 2008 03:30 PM
Internal Dialogue
In the two years since Barbaro broke down in the Preakness Stakes, there have been seven breakdowns on racing's biggest days: Barbaro, Fleet Indian, Pine Island, Mending Fences, George Washington, Chelokee, and Eight Belles.
That's seven breakdowns on national television, but I didn't need the boob tube to bring me the visuals. I saw all of them live.
A lot of people reach a breaking point when it comes to seeing animals suffer in this sport. Some haven't watched a race since Ruffian or Go For Wand or Barbaro. For others, maybe Eight Belles was the last straw.
I'll be back for more, though. I'm Baltimore bound in a week and looking forward to the race. Does that make me a bad person?
Part of me thinks I should feel worse than I do about this, and another part tells me that I mourned and that it's time to move on. Is that callous?
I love this game, and as I saw Eight Belles go still on the track I loved that horse.
I tell myself that in heaven, she runs in a meadow with no pain. Horses gather around her, and she regales them with stories of how she took on the boys in the world's greatest race.
In Heaven, she is peers with the bottom-level claimer who died in a slaughterhouse. They all run, and God help me, they all forgive us for what we put them through.
Posted by Ed, May 5, 2008 12:18 PM
Sunday Night Links
- The 2008 Kentucky Derby, now officially the worst ever.
- Larry Jones, eloquent in grief: "She went out in glory," he said, choking on tears. "She went out a champion to us."
- Rick Dutrow, exultant in victory: "I told you Big Brown couldn't lose!" So he did, again and again.
- Wise Ernie says: "Hug your Spooky Moulders, kiss your Delta Seas ... you never know which race is the last."
- Onward, I guess, but to face what competition?
- "Yes, that's it, contemplate the koan, meditate upon it ... then arrive at this reconciliation: Big Brown is indeed quite talented, the other 3-year-olds are, for the moment anyway, woefully pedestrian, and the sum of those two realities can only mean Triple Crown."
- I made the deal, signed up for all the good and bad. I still feel terrible. And not just because I was wrong.
Posted by JC, May 4, 2008 11:30 PM
Just the Numbers
Kentucky Derby contenders, graphed according to their Derby and prep race BSFs. Big Brown, in blue here, floats above the competition. Click to view larger image.
Listed in order of finish; KD-B=Derby BSF, PR-B=previous BSF, D+/-=difference between KD-B and PR-B.
The final time for the Kentucky Derby was 2:01.82, for which Big Brown was given a Beyer speed figure of 109 (about average for the Derby). Fractions for the race break down into times of :23.30, :23.74, :24.10, :25.42, and :25.26. According to Formulator, Big Brown's splits were :23.57, :23.94, :24.30, :24.75, and :25.26. Hardly spectacular -- no records were threatened -- but good enough for this field.
[Note: Data used in the graph is in the table above (or can be viewed here, along with past Derby BSFs). Line color = finish = horse. The rise and fall of each line follows the rise and fall of each horse's prep campaign and ends with the Derby. Graph goes from left to right (or from Derby BSF back through prep races), as does the data in the table.]
Posted by JC, May 4, 2008 03:45 PM
Sadness
Big Brown was ultra impressive, but tough to get too excited after what happened to Eight Belles.
Posted by Ed, May 3, 2008 06:25 PM
The Tickets
With Jessica and I both bullish on the Arkansas Derby, it only makes sense that we would combine our efforts in the hopes of hitting the tri.
We're playing Gayego w/ Colonel John and Z Fortune w/ ALL and Gayego w/ ALL w/ Colonel John and Z Fortune.
We'll also back those tickets up by playing Colonel John and Z Fortune on top with Gayego keyed in the second and third spots. We're betting $60 each on getting Gayego plus at least CJ or Z Fortune to hit the board, but when two people share an opinion on a 20-to-1 horse you gotta hammer it, right?
19 w/ 6, 10 w/ ALL ($36); 19 w/ ALL w/ 6, 10 ($36); 6, 10 w/ 19 w/ 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 16, 18 ($24); 6, 10 w/ 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 16, 18 w/ 19 ($24)
We're tossing Big Brown.
Posted by Ed, May 3, 2008 01:04 PM
Blinkers Off - Saturday
Special Railbird correspondent Blinkers Off checks in from the backstretch. Today at Churchill ...
Walk past the throng of hawkers every single step at Churchill Downs and, lo and behold, who do we happen on in the lobby on the Gate 1 entry? John Hennegan waving copies of "The First Saturday In May" like a guy selling programs at Shea Stadium. It made you wonder if Francis Ford Coppola ever stood in a lobby with a clutch of DVDs shouting, "Godfather! Get your Godfather!"
One of the highlights of the week in Louisville was lucking into Manny Ehrlich -- "Manny the Magician" -- at Ramsi's Cafe on Bardstown Road late Friday night after the Oaks. Looking like a slimmed-down Colonel Sanders, Ehrlich, 82, came up behind us at the bar, opened his wallet and it burst into flames. At first, he just seemed to be a crackpot in town for the Derby, but if you brought him to your table, he'd perform some super sleight of hand tricks with cards and coins. He kept reminding us he could use a little token of appreciation for "my wife's operation." Turns out Manny is from the Bronx and performed as "Manfred the Magician" there in the 1930s.
No other news to report, as Blinkers Off put his blinkers on and slept in Saturday morning, but here are his Derby picks:
$1 exacta box: Cowboy Cal-Gayego-Colonel John-Denis of Cork.
Feel free to send me a token of your appreciation via the Railbird ...
Posted by BlkOff, May 3, 2008 12:45 PM
Derby Best Bets
Since a large number of people seem to be landing on Railbird this morning via a Google search for "Kentucky Derby best bets," I offer a few for your consideration:
Most conventionally prepared: Z Fortune. The Steve Asmussen-trained colt comes into Derby with three prep races, a triple-digit speed figure, a second-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, and six career starts.
Most likely to win: Colonel John. Winner of the Sham and the Santa Anita Derby. Worked a bullet five furlongs over the Churchill dirt, has the pedigree, a solid foundation, and a level-headed trainer handling things.
If the track comes up sloppy: Play a Smooth Air-Pyro exacta box. Both have shown an affinity for the wet going, with Smooth Air winning the Hutcheson over such a surface and Pyro earning his highest speed figure in the slop.
Best value: Gayego. The Arkansas Derby winner looks to go to post at double-digit odds, despite speed and consistency. Must be the post position, although that isn't dissuading supporters of likely favorite Big Brown ...
Posted by JC, May 3, 2008 10:50 AM
Track Conditions
A sloppy main track and a yielding turf course will greet the day's initial runners, but everyone thinks the Derby surface will be "fast" come 6 p.m.
Posted by Ed, May 3, 2008 10:22 AM
Derby Day Notes
- The early Beyer speed figure assigned to Proud Spell's Oaks victory is 99, which means the filly basically returned to the form she displayed at the Fair Grounds earlier this year, none the worse for her third-place finish in the Ashland. I'm sure Pyro supporters will take heart from this -- I'm willing to bet I'll have such a conversation with Dana at Belmont this afternoon -- but I'd caution that even if Pyro returns to his pre-Blue Grass level in the Derby, that still puts him about 10 lengths behind the winner.
- Track superintendent Butch Lehr kept the Churchill track closed this morning to prevent water getting into the surface, which was sealed tight last night. As Jerry Bailey observed yesterday, trainer Larry Jones wasn't sinking into the track as he walked out to meet Proud Spell after the Oaks. "This track is hard, it's fast, it's sealed," said Bailey. "Keep that in mind for tomorrow." Hey, the man was right about Saez's goggles, so I think I'll trust his unconventional measure of track condition as well. The forecast calls for light showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon.
- Steven Crist has posted the Oaks-Derby double will-pays and calculated the equivalent win odds for this afternoon's race. Interesting: Court Vision comes in at 12-1, well off his morning line of 20-1, Gayego ends up at 22-1, which is pretty close to his advance wagering odds of 21-1.
Posted by JC, May 3, 2008 09:30 AM
Sounds of Derby Day
Traffic snarling.
Crowds gathering.
Helicopters chopping.
"Who do you like today?"
"Horsemen, please bring your horses to the paddock for the tenth race."
"My Old Kentucky Home"
"And they're off in the Kentucky Derby!"
Posted by Ed, May 3, 2008 09:23 AM
Even Steven
Save for the exacta in the ninth race I've come up with squadouche today. I hardly even had the sniff of a thrill most of the day, but I think this last race presents tremendous value in #9 Persistent Penny at 6-to-1.
I have to play her to win at that price, but I might get jazzy underneath since #5 Tates Queen is 9-to-1. The others who figure are #4 Great Thought, #7 Light Showers, and #10 Splendorella.
Posted by Ed, May 2, 2008 06:17 PM
Helmet Clues
Before the Kentucky Oaks, Jerry Bailey kept talking about jockey Gabriel Saez having only three pairs of goggles on his helmet, despite the sloppy track condition, inferring from that little detail that Saez planned to keep Proud Spell close to the pace. He did, and she came home an easy winner ...
Posted by JC, May 2, 2008 06:00 PM
I Wish the Hits
... wouldn't keep coming.
Minutes after Chelokee was vanned off the track, word came through in the press box that Legendary Racing Hall of Fame trainer Frank Whiteley died.
Stronach, Frankel, and Bejarano, winners of the Louisville Handicap and the Alysheba are the only ones having a good day, I think.
Racing is always funny that way. It's such a tremendous accomplishment to win a stakes race, and it's tough to balance good cheer for connections with proper respect for bad circumstances.
RIP, Frank Whiteley, and godspeed Chelokee, who is en route to Rood and Riddle in Lexington after suffering a condylar fracture in his right front leg.
Posted by Ed, May 2, 2008 04:28 PM
Committing
Enough handicapping, it's time for me to commit to my top Derby picks: Gayego, Colonel John, Z Fortune, Eight Belles, Smooth Air. No analysis; I've spent so much time with the past performances and reading the opinions of others these past couple days that I've been stricken with a case of writer's block on the subject. I'll be back later, though, with details of the ticket that Ed and I are splitting.
Posted by JC, May 2, 2008 04:25 PM
Pall
Well, if the rain wasn't enough to cast a pall over the Oaks crowd, then certainly Chelokee's breakdown did little to help the mood.
The fact that it was Matz on Derby weekend with a horse who won the Barbaro Stakes only adds to drama of the situation.
I think of these incidents and of Little Cliff, and it breaks my heart.
Posted by Ed, May 2, 2008 04:08 PM
Rain Vodka
The skies opened up shortly before 2 p.m., and it wasn't a drizzle either, it was a straight up downpour. The good thing about that kind of weather is that it usually moves through. I think it will be dry in sky by Oaks, but not sure about fast on the track.
Those in the infield haven't really enjoyed the rain, but dissatisfaction is not limited to the hoi palloi. Millionaire's Row 6 (Mill six as it's called at Churchill) is out of vodka, and the people with tickets in that area overlooking the finish line under the roof are not happy.
Posted by Ed, May 2, 2008 02:04 PM
Blinkers Off - Friday
Special Railbird correspondent Blinkers Off checks in from the backstretch. Today at Churchill ...
Intrigue was bound to raise its ugly head as word began to get around, reportedly via Kent Desormeaux's agent, that Paulo Lobo had taken Gayego out early Thursday morning onto the pavement, the assumption being that any foot problems would show up on the hard surface. Gayego did not go to the track Thursday morning, heightening speculation something was wrong. Lobo insisted that he planned on giving Gayego the day off all along. Friday morning, Gayego was out at 6:15 and jogged a mile then galloped a mile and a quarter.
Lobo looked very happy with a big table near the stage Thursday night at the media party and when asked about the morning exam said it never happened. As of this writing, Gayego is a whopping 27-1.
Speaking of the media party at the Galt House, more shrimp gave their lives for the enjoyment of others than I have ever seen in all my partygoing days. The great inequity of this event is that the tables are reserved and none for the guests of honor, who mill about desperately looking for a little breathing space to enjoy the free cocktails. This party never has the "pop" it should have and Thursday night there was a real paucity of starpower. When the kitchy band launched into the one-two punch of "Girls Just Want To Have Fun" and "Hey Mickey," it was time to go back to the hotel.
Security on Oaks Day is brutal. Police are everywhere and suddenly the gate you went into all week is completely off limits. I was carrying a pocket-sized umbrella in preparation for the tornado warnings in effect and a giant officer told me I could not bring it in. Nevermind, they sell umbrellas in the gift shop. I stuffed it in a pocket and sailed through another gate.
The great Kentucky Derby weekend tradition continues at Churchill Downs: The sale of lobster sandwiches.
A little birdie whispered Pyro has "chips." You read it here first.
Posted by BlkOff, May 2, 2008 12:45 PM
Estimated Post-Time Odds
Ed sends along his estimated Derby post-time odds:
Over on Thoroughbredblog, Michael posts the advance wagering odds, which he plans to update through the day. Eight Belles is taking early money, Gayego is not ...
Posted by JC, May 2, 2008 12:40 PM
Let the Revels Begin
The Derby is still 33 hours away, but it seems closer than that.
They, whoever that is, say that the rain will come overnight and in the morning. It's windy, but dry.
It's time to start really thinking about wagering strategy here. I'm not using Big Brown or Colonel John on top, and I think some horses can crash the board at a big price. I don't think the top seven will be too strung out turning for home, so missing third by a length and finishing sixth isn't out of the question.
Hopefully my price horses are the ones who get the jump.
Right now Gayego will be my heaviest key on top, and I gotta use Z Humor liberally underneath.
Jessica and I will be coming up with a ticket to share, so I'm anxious to view her input.
Posted by Ed, May 2, 2008 09:51 AM
Thursday Evening Notes
- Quick Oaks picks: Pure Clan, Country Star, Rasierra. I'm leaving out likely favorite Proud Spell, based on her third place finish in the Ashland. It could well turn out that she just didn't take to the Keeneland Polytrack last month and will return to the form she displayed at the Fair Grounds, but I suspect it's more likely she peaked beating Indian Blessing in the Fair Grounds Oaks in March. [5/2 Addendum: It's pouring at Churchill this afternoon and the track is a sloppy mess. Rethinking the Oaks, Proud Spell moves back into contention ...]
- Here's how the Wizard settled on his Derby pick: "Big Brown is brilliant. The others in this race are not."
- Brilliant or not, Beyer tosses Brown for lack of experience and picks these three: "1. Pyro 2. Z Fortune 3. Gayego."
- The big news out of Churchill this morning was Big Brown's fast three furlong :35.40 blowout. Smooth Air also took to the track, going three furlongs in a pedestrian :38.20. Big Brown was headstrong, requiring an outrider to help pull up, which you can see for yourself by visiting Churchill's video page, a fantastic repository of Derby work and gallop videos. Also of note: Big Brown appeared wearing front wraps, which trainer Rick Dutrow said were nothing to worry about.
- Beware the year of the cicada.
Posted by JC, May 1, 2008 10:20 PM
Blinkers Off - Thursday
Special Railbird correspondent Blinkers Off checks in from the backstretch. Today at Churchill ...
So, the horsemen think they're getting a bad deal from Churchill Downs with the splits on the advanced-deposit wagering sites like Twinspires.com? How about the track's employees who are being told to park off-site this week at the University of Louisville football stadium and then pay $10 for shuttle bus service to their own jobs?
As everyone tuned in knows, Big Brown blew out this morning, three furlongs in :35 2/5, and he looked like he was doing his best to back up every bragging word out of Richard Dutrow's mouth. When exercise rider Michelle Nevin took him out to the track, a swarm followed, some breaking into a full run to keep up.
"It was worse when Arazi was here," one reporter said. "Like a combination of the pope and Elvis."
"This makes you thank God you weren't in the Beatles," a reporter said to Jerry Bailey.
Leroy Neiman, the, um, artist, could be seen winging around the backstretch this morning in the passenger seat of a golf cart. They used his mustache as a directional signal.
Now I know why the whiskey is called Early Times ... they were pouring it in abundance to a long line of people next to the backstretch media center at 8:00 a.m.
Nevin on Big Brown: "He lengthens out but you really don't feel like you're flying ... You don't feel like you have to get down and work."
Mike Iavarone, head of IEAH, owner of Big Brown, admitted they would have preferred the No. 15 hole, the first slot in the auxilliary gate, for the spacing it provides between horses.
Things were nice and kicked back at Eoin Harty's barn in contrast to the yellow police tape criss-crossing the Dutrow zone. WinStar honcho Bill Casner talked with a stable hand bathing a horse and trainer Eoin Harty entertained a lot of folks wearing Tiznow hats.
Casner is a big fan of synthetic tracks and sees it as the future. Asked if Churchill will some day switch to an artificial surface, he said, "I hope it happens."
Posted by BlkOff, May 1, 2008 02:00 PM
Appetizer
There's 33 races scheduled between now and 7 p.m. Saturday, but to hell with patience. I'm heavily invested in #8 Baladeva in here.
He took money sprinting on the turf at Gulfstream and got into trouble when hitting the gate, but still came home in a snappy :11.40.
Baird sticks around, Ward can fire second start, and he gets a drop in class. There's some negatives, but 2-to-1 is fair value on this one to me, and he's 5-to-2 now. Let's get this pick four single home!
Well, that sucked.
Posted by Ed, May 1, 2008 12:44 PM
Now, That's Funny
Trainer Rick Dutrow on racing's shady side: "Sometimes I get beat in races, and I know something wasn't done right. I know they can't beat us fairly. It aggravates me. I don't ever say anything, but I know they got over."
Posted by JC, May 1, 2008 12:30 PM
Big Brown Headstrong
I returned to Churchill for the first time since Sunday on Thursday afternoon, and the air has changed.
Whereas Louisville was excited for the return of live racing last weekend, the focus has wholly shifted to the Kentucky Derby two days before the race.
Churchill had a great crowd on the front and backsides this morning to watch horses prepare, and of course all eyes were on Big Brown, who worked three furlongs in :35.40 shortly after the renovation break.
Dutrow was hoping for a move between 36 and 37 seconds, calling it "important" that Big Brown hit that mark. He didn't.
I timed Big Brown going about :12.00 for the opening furlong, so he came home the final quarter-mile of his work in under :24. From the second he got on the track he wanted to run, and he didn't want to stop. An outrider had to help the exercise rider pull up the likely Derby fave.
Posted by Ed, May 1, 2008 08:46 AM
Opening Day at Belmont
- Low-key Billy Turner leads the Belmont trainer standings after winning three races in a row on opening day, one of those with Just Zip It, part of the Left at the Gate stable.
- In the day's feature, 5-2 Divine Park won the Westchester Handicap by five lengths, upsetting favored Grasshopper, who finished second. "He's a very nice horse," said trainer Kiaran McLaughlin after. He's so understated. Divine Park has been a favorite of mine since he broke his maiden at Aqueduct over the inner dirt last year. I love his pedigree -- his damsire is the late Canadian sire Ascot Knight, also the sire of one of my all-time favorite racehorses, sweet and scrappy Ascot Doll, and he's by the late Chester House, whose offspring have been good to me at the windows, especially on the grass. (It's tangential and sentimental, but this game can't be all about logic.) McLaughlin mentioned the Met Mile as a possible next start for Divine Park, but after that -- with Chester House on top, Ascot Knight on the bottom -- this is a horse I hope gets a chance on the turf. [5/5 Update: Divine Park earned a career best 111 Beyer in the Westchester.]
- Improvements: Belmont now boasts flat-screen TVs in the backyard, a hospitality center, and renovated bathrooms.
Posted by JC, May 1, 2008 08:30 AM
