Kentucky Derby Field
PPHorseJockeyML
1SilksCool Coal ManLeparoux20-1
2Silks Tale of EkatiCoa15-1
3SilksAnak NakalBejarano30-1
4SilksCourt VisionGomez20-1
5SilksEight BellesSaez15-1
6SilksZ FortuneAlbarado30-1
7Silks Big TruckCastellano50-1
8SilksVisionaireLezcano20-1
9SilksPyroBridgmohan6-1
10SilksColonel JohnNakatani4-1
11SilksZ HumorDouglas30-1
12SilksSmooth AirCruz20-1
13SilksBob Black JackMigliore20-1
14SilksMonbaDominguez15-1
15SilksAdrianoPrado30-1
16SilksDenis of CorkBorel20-1
17SilksCowboy CalVelazquez20-1
18SilksRecapturethegloryBaird20-1
19SilksGayegoSmith15-1
20SilksBig BrownDesormeaux3-1
[Posted April 30, 2008 6:00 PM]
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Blinkers Off - Wednesday

Special Railbird correspondent Blinkers Off checks in from the backstretch. Today at Churchill ...

Graham Motion, a great guy but not exactly a human quote machine, has one good line this week for reporters about Adriano and he's sticking to it: "I must be the only trainer in the world with an A.P. Indy that can't run on dirt."...

Speaking of one-liners, Henny Youngman used to have a good one about racing. "I once bet on a horse that was so slow, I saw him turn around and say to the jockey, 'Whaddya hittin' me for, there's nobody behind us." ...

Todd Pletcher missed the trainer's dinner Tuesday night with either strep throat or a flu bug, depending on who you talk to. He arrived at his Churchill Downs barn this morning, however, looking razor sharp as always, moments after Monba and Cowboy Cal danced off the van from Keeneland and into the barn. After a brief photo shoot worthy of Ashlee Simpson, Pletcher was surrounded by a media swarm more interested in his take on Polytrack than his 1-2 finishers in the Blue Grass Stakes. After 10 minutes of this, one late-comer walked up and asked, "Todd, what do you make of Polytrack?" He snickered, but patiently repeated everything he had just said. His PR flak made a slicing motion with her hand across her throat -- a gang signal someone is about to get killed -- and Pletcher turned and walked away.

"Are you sick, Todd?" a reporter called out.

"Yes."

"Did you just give it to all of us?"

"I hope so." ...

A lot of people are talking to Richard Dutrow this week like he's a cheater. To his credit, Dutrow just calls everyone "babe" and recommends they "bet out" on Big Brown.

"Who wants to cheat and win the Derby? That's not us," he said ...

There's a lot of talk about whether Colonel John can transfer his Santa Anita form to a dirt track. Trainer Eoin Harty says no problem, but he also says, "As long as it's not a wet track." Rain is called for Friday and Saturday.

[Posted April 30, 2008 2:00 PM]
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Speed to the Outside

Is there any doubt? Recapturetheglory, Gayego, and Big Brown will be among the final five assigned a spot in the gate. Here's the order in which connections will select post positions in the Kentucky Derby draw, which will be shown on ESPN2 beginning at 5:00 p.m. ET today:

#HorseTrainerJockey
1VisionaireMatzLezcano
2Big TruckTaggCastellano
3Colonel JohnHartyNakatani
4Z FortuneAsmussenAlbarado
5PyroAsmussenBridgmohan
6Eight BellesJonesSaez
7Anak NakalZitoBejarano
8Court VisionMottGomez
9Z HumorMottDouglas
10MonbaPletcherDominguez
11Smooth AirStuttsCruz
12AdrianoMotionPrado
13Bob Black JackKasparoffMigliore
14Denis of CorkCarrollBorel
15Cowboy CalPletcherVelazquez
16Big BrownDutrowDesormeaux
17Tale of EkatiTaggCoa
18Cool Coal ManZitoLeparoux
19RecapturethegloryRousselBaird
20GayegoLoboSmith

Trainer Larry Jones is in a sweet spot with Eight Belles. As the sixth to select, he'll have no problem netting his big gray filly an agreeable post.

[Posted April 30, 2008 11:30 AM]
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Wednesday Morning Notes

- Post positions for the Kentucky Derby will be drawn later this afternoon and handicapping will begin in earnest soon after. Stats are always a big part of figuring the Derby and everyone has their favorite angles. Superfecta, a fan of the Courier-Journal Data Track, pays attention to the proven ability to handle traffic factor. Dean Keppler, writing on the Rail, looks for triple-digit speed figures and key prep races. And for a thorough assessment, look to the 20/20 Derby Vision system developed by Kennedy. I'll add to the stats overload tomorrow, when I finally delve into my Derby Profiles and how those factors relate to this year's field.

- Jeremy Plonk reports that Adriano, despite schooling in the Churchill paddock repeatedly, remains skittish:

In fact, Motion is using earplugs on Adriano to help the high-strung horse block out some of the noisy distractions ... Adriano definitely is hot-blooded, never gets off the bit in the paddock and his fiery eyes indicate he's not a happy camper when in the paddock's saddling stall. On Tuesday, he kicked the stall three times.

I can relate. Except for the kicking, I'm the same way on trips into Manhattan. I also find that earplugs help ...

Trainer Graham Motion, who blamed Adriano's paddock antics before the Fountain of Youth for his dull finish in that race, told Plonk that Adriano improves daily, but with four days to go, how he'll behave surrounded by a crowd of 150,000 on Saturday remains a big question.

- Rick Bozich tries to talk about drugs in racing, is greeted with silence and requests to go off the record.

- Paulo Lobo doesn't hustle.

- As the hype around Big Brown builds, Turf Luck returns again and again to the story of a Derby long ago.

[Posted April 30, 2008 10:45 AM]
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Kentucky Oaks Field
PPHorseJockeyML
1Golden Doc AGolden Doc ADesormeaux12-1
2Absolutely CindyAbsolutely CindyLeparoux20-1
3Awesome ChicAwesome ChicAlbarado20-1
4Elusive LadyElusive LadyCoa30-1
5Rasierra;RasierraTheriot50-1
6Country StarCountry StarBejarano4-1
7Little BelleLittle BelleMaragh8-1
8Proud SpellProud SpellSaez7-2
9A to the CroftA to the CroftBorel20-1
10BsharpsonataBsharpsonataCamacho6-1
11Pure ClanPure ClanPrado6-1
12Eight BellesEight BellesDominguez5-2
[Posted April 29, 2008 4:45 PM]
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Black Is the New Black

It didn't take long after the Florida Derby for people to start decreeing Big Brown "this year's Bellamy Road." He's also this year's Indian Charlie, this year's Pulpit, and this year's Curlin.

"Big Brown is this year's Bellamy Road" is this year's "This is a wide open field" or "This is a weak crop."

Other horses evoke memories of other horses, too. Just yesterday someone said that Colonel John is this year's Prime Timber. That's not bad, but I think of him more as this year's Afleet Alex (especially if Big Brown is this year's Bellamy Road).

It pains me to say it, but Court Vision could be this year's Giacomo (especially if Big Brown is this year's Bellamy Road and Colonel John is this year's Afleet Alex).

Anyway, Giacomo always hinted at talent, but never quite got there in the big race and was "too slow to win the Derby," which is how I feel about Court Vision. The difference is that Court Vision will be a third of the price.

Smooth Air is this year's Deputy Glitters. He doesn't deserve to be the longest shot on the board based on his consistent record, but he probably will be. Hopefully he goes on to win some nice races (like the Ohio Derby).

I heard someone say that Visionaire is this year's Thunder Gulch, and that Z Fortune is this year's Funny Cide, but I don't get those as much.

Still, it's a fun exercise in Derby history to compare horses from today with yesteryear. At least there is no Tincin this year.

[Posted April 29, 2008 3:04 PM]
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Blinkers Off - Tuesday

Special Railbird correspondent Blinkers Off checks in from the backstretch. Today at Churchill ...

Rick Dutrow and Big Brown are unquestionably the stars of this Kentucky Derby. Not only did Dutrow have the lone formal press conference scheduled Tuesday, the location was changed as well, leaving several veteran Derby reporters scrambling. "How are we supposed to know these things?" asked one, who happened to fortunately be standing in the media center where it had been moved to. "Word of mouth," she was told ...

Dutrow, wearing a "Palm Meadows" cap and a down vest over a hoodie (temperatures were in the low 40s), might become the new D. Wayne Lukas of Triple Crown racing if he continues talking about women instead of horses. "It's like trying to be with a pretty girl and you can't," he said in response to one question, eliciting laughter, some of it nervous. The trainer was on better footing when asked about Kent Desormeax, a two-time Derby winner, calling Big Brown the best horse he had ever been on. "Desormeaux got paid a lot of money to say that," Dutrow responded ...

Nick Zito was in fine New York form outside his barn. Talking about Anak Nakal and Cool Coal Man, not exactly Affirmed and Alydar, Zito said, "I wish Bill Parcells was here. I'd tell him we have Jeff Hostetler." Zito held court at length about his distaste for Polytrack. "I like dirt and grass. I don't want something from the attic." ...

David Carroll, whose Denis of Cork moved into the Derby field after Todd Pletcher and Satish Sanan decided to hold out Lexington Stakes winner Behindatthebar for the Preakness, vowed to never let Ragozin Sheets or any other speed figures determine how he trains his horses. "Shove those numbers up their asses," Carroll said.

More Blinkers Off

Wednesday, 4/30: Motion on Adriano, Dutrow on cheating, Harty on Colonel John.

Thursday, 5/1: Bad deal for track employees, being glad you weren't in the Beatles, Casner hopes for synthetic Churchill.

Friday, 5/2: Gayego's feet fine, tight security, whispers about Pyro.

Saturday, 5/3: Manny the Magician, $1 exacta box.

[Posted April 29, 2008 1:30 PM]
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Graphing the Contenders

Following up on my earlier study on the BSF patterns of past Kentucky Derby fields, I graphed the prep race BSF patterns of the top 20 Derby contenders this year:

Derby contenders, BSF patterns
Click to enlarge.

A caveat: Beyer speed figures are merely tools and not necessarily comparable across surfaces, and figures earned solely on turf and synthetics (such as those for Colonel John and Cowboy Cal) indicate little how those horses will perform on dirt. Still, I find the visual representation useful -- it makes clear that Gayego is a real contender, that Tale of Ekati may be improving but is too slow, and suggests that both consistent Eight Belles and Cowboy Cal have more of a chance than their odds might accord.

Over on Thoroughbred Champions, Kennedy posts more in-depth work on the figures, describing six distinct patterns for Derby contenders.

[Posted April 29, 2008 10:45 AM]
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Tuesday Morning Notes

- At Churchill: Tale of Ekati worked four furlongs in :49.40 ("nothing dramatic") over the main track. Halo Najib, #21 on the earnings list, worked five furlongs in 1:05 over the turf.

- Dutrow's plan: "After winning the Derby, Big Brown will go to Baltimore, win the Preakness, and then claim the Triple Crown with a win in the Belmont." If only winning the Triple Crown were that easy; I'm sure we would have had a winner or two in the past 30 years. [Addendum: Joe Drape reports today that Dutrow, now at Churchill, is more subdued.]

- Of course, if Big Brown does win the Derby, certain unsavory subjects will come up for discussion ...

- Now proven, synthetic surfaces produce closer finishes:

[D]uring Keeneland's final year with a dirt main track, the average winning margin was 3.86 lengths in the spring and 4.33 lengths in the fall. In 2007, those winning margins were reduced to 1.84 lengths and 1.32 lengths in the spring and fall, respectively.

The change is good for horseplayers, said a Polytrack representative: "Close finishes give the bettor the feeling that they weren't too far off" (ThoroTimes).

- Average daily handle declined at Keeneland during its recently concluded spring meet, but aided by an additional day and a closing card pick six carryover, overall Keeneland numbers were just 5% off last year's record handle.

[Posted April 29, 2008 10:30 AM]
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That'll Be a Lot

... of disappointed connections come 6:08 p.m. Saturday if Big Brown doesn't win:

According to Schiavo, the party of Derbygoers connected to the horse now numbers 102, with a tent in the infield and 10 boxes set up for the giant group.

The likely Derby favorite arrived at Churchill this afternoon.

[Posted April 28, 2008 8:05 PM]
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Getting the Trip

In 133 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the winner has been in the lead or within a half-length of the lead at the stretch call of the race in 116 of those races (7/8!). More recently, only Giacomo in the past six years has not gotten that trip. Even Street Sense, with his big move up the rail from 19th, was already in the lead by the stretch call of the race.

Other recent aberrations to this rule are Monarchos and Charismatic. Given that Charismatic and Giacomo were gigantic bombs and the Monarchos win came in the year of the record fractions, it seems as if the race really needs to completely fall apart for a horse to come closing at the very end of the race to win.

I'm willing to downgrade a horse like Court Vision's chances to win based on the above, as I don't think there will be a complete meltdown of the first two tiers of horses this year. Notice I didn't say "of the pace." In Barbaro's year, Keyed Entry, Sharp Humor, and Sinister Minister all faded badly, but that second tier of horses—Barbaro, Bluegrass Cat, and Showing Up—ran well. I could see horses with that running style doing well this year.

[Posted April 28, 2008 4:42 PM]
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Denis of Cork In

Lexington winner Behindatthebar will skip the Derby and point to the Preakness, trainer Todd Pletcher announced this morning, which means Denis of Cork slips off the bubble and solidly into spot #20 on the graded earnings list. "We're excited," said trainer David Carroll of the news. "The horse is here, we feel he belongs in the race with him doing as well as he is" (DRF). Jockey Calvin Borel, who will ride the colt in the Derby, was in the saddle this morning when Denis of Cork worked four furlongs in :48 at Churchill and had nothing but good to say at a time when it still didn't look like Denis would make it. "He's peaking right now," said Borel after the work. "This horse is getting better, and better, and better. Maybe we'll get in" (Morning Line). Despite how well Denis of Cork is training now, though, his unconventional prep schedule based on the bounce theory and his fifth-place finish in the Illinois Derby makes him hard to like heading into Saturday. Too bad. If only he had stayed at Oaklawn ...

[Posted April 28, 2008 11:40 AM]
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Monday Morning Notes

- Derby works: At Churchill, Big Truck breezed a bullet five furlongs in :59.40; Z Fortune, reportedly looking magnificent this weekend, worked four furlongs in a slow :51; at the same distance, Visionaire went :48.40 ("under some pressure") and Bob Black Jack :48.60 (with rider Richard Migliore up). Pyro also worked this morning, without company, breezing four furlongs in :49.80 over the track.

- After missing two days of training due to fever, Smooth Air returned to the track on Sunday. Trainer Bennie Stutts said the colt would gallop for the remainder of the week, which means his his final Derby work happened on April 19, when he went seven furlongs in 1:25.80 at Calder. Last work two weeks out is not usually a positive going into the Derby.

- Oaks news: Battaglia Memorial winner Absolutely Cindy will start in the Oaks on Friday. The filly worked three furlongs in :37 at Churchill on Sunday.

- Sunland is seeking graded status for the Winstar Derby.

- Lava Man finished third in the Khaled Stakes on Sunday, his first start in six months. "I thought we were in a really good spot, and it was typical of a horse just needing a race," said rider Corey Nakatani of the effort (Blood-Horse). Trainer Doug O'Neill said he was disappointed by the finish, but that the 7-year-old gelding got something out of the race for his next start, reports the LA Times:

"It used to be when he came back from a race, he wouldn't be able to blow out a match, but today he could have blown out a forest fire. He should gain a lot of fitness from this."

- Also at Hollywood on Sunday, Bel Air Sizzle, fresh off an allowance win only three days before, won the Melair Stakes after Gambler's Justice was disqualified for interference in the stretch and bumped to third. The 3-year-old filly was mistakenly entered in the Melair because of a racing office mistake; trainer Barry Abrams had planned to enter Santa Paula winner Lethal Heat instead.

- Shadai Stallion Station tries, tries again with War Emblem.

[Posted April 28, 2008 9:30 AM]
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Scrutiny (or how to embrace minutia)

One of my favorite moments of "First Saturday of May" is when Kentucky Derby week finally arrives, and the camera shows trainer Michael Matz going through his daily routine.

Then we pan out and see an onslaught of press watching Matz's and Barbaro's every move. My wife gasped at the sight of the media crush, and I heard similar whispers from throughout the theater.

Heck, I knew it was coming, and it even surprised me. When you go from quiet mornings at Fair Hill to Derby week, you're not in Kansas anymore as the saying goes.

Scoops are hard to come by, of course. It's unlikely that you're going to talk to anyone alone. More than anything, the race is to be the first to post something since being the only news outlet with a story is tough to come by.

It's important to keep this dynamic in mind when trolling the backside for news. A co-worker of mine had his spidey sense tingling on Sunday morning when Recapturetheglory did not go to the track despite having worked two days previous. His suspicians increased when trainer Louis Roussel was not around the barn in the morning.

So far it's turned out to be nothing, but Smooth Air was supposedly fine on Friday after not going to the track for training, and then on Saturday we learned he had a fever.

Truth is, I understand that the media can't always be the first to know about certain things. If I were an owner, I know I'd want to hear bad news from my trainer—not read about it on Thoroughbred Times or Daily Racing Form.

[Posted April 27, 2008 9:24 PM]
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Around the TBA

I have been slacking this weekend, but my colleagues around the TBA have not: Over on Green But Game, Dana covers ladies, drugs, and players; at That's Amore Stable, Frank introduces Irish Colony and ponders how best to provide safe retirements to racehorses; on Left at the Gate, Alan takes a second look at Derby prospects with pedigrees for the distance; and on Thoroughbredblog, Michael reports on the Oaks and Derby from Churchill. For much more good stuff, visit the TBA feed.

[Posted April 27, 2008 8:45 PM]
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Doubts Dispelled

Reports of Colonel John's disdain for dirt may have been exaggerated. The Tiznow colt worked five furlongs in :57.61 and galloped out six furlongs in 1:10.99 over the fast Churchill track. "At the moment it doesn't look like the work took a lot out of him," said trainer Eoin Harty. "He got a good blow but he appears to be well back to himself" (DRF). Also on the worktab were Adriano (five furlongs in 1:00.80), Court Vision, Z Humor, and Eight Belles. I'll leave it to Ed to report from the scene on how everyone looked.

[Posted April 27, 2008 3:15 PM]
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Fillies' Plans Confirmed

Update from Ed at Churchill: Proud Spell is definite for the Oaks, while Eight Belles will be cross-entered in the Oaks and the Derby, as planned, but only posts 19 or 20 would have owner Rick Porter and trainer Larry Jones thinking about scratching and "even then they might still run." The defection of Proud Spell moves Bob Black Jack into the field and leaves Denis of Cork on the outside, with his connections hoping for one more dropout before Wednesday.

[Posted April 27, 2008 10:05 AM]
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First Look

Things were kind of slow on the backside of Churchill Downs Saturday morning, as many horsemen played cat and mouse with the weather.

Overnight rains rendered the main track muddy, and of the Derby probables, only Gayego worked under the sometimes ominous-sometimes welcoming watch of the Twin Spires (Monba and Cowboy Cal worked at Keeneland).

I'm not one for getting into how horses look. My strengths as a handicapper come from reading charts and pedigree analysis. That said, I think I've seen enough horses at various stages of their careers and seen enough races that I can identify extremes. That is, I know when a horse looks super great or simply awful.

Gayego looked great today.

I was about a sixteenth of a mile away from where Gayego started his work, and I had him firmly in my sights as he raced down the backstretch and into the turn, and that's when I really got impressed. His action into the turn was breathtaking, and even his gallop out after the work drew "oohs" and "aahs" as he cycled back into the backstretch.

His jockey and trainer flew in from California for the work, the breeder was there for the work, and I could understand why there were so many smiles to go around.

Sunday should be a lot busier from a work standpoint, as it looks as if it will stay dry overnight, and with a chance of rain on Monday, many trainers may want to get the work in sooner rather than later.

[Posted April 26, 2008 9:31 PM]
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Big Brown Madness

Derby week begins and all perspective is lost. In Florida still, trainer Rick Dutrow is full of bravado:

"Until somebody shows me the beast, this is not a tough horse race," Dutrow said in a typical recent interview. "I'm training this horse for a horse race; I don't care what the name of it is. I feel he's the best horse in the race -- I feel he's going to win the race. Anything else is going to be extremely disappointing to me."

And he's not alone is his feelings about Big Brown's Derby chances. Bill Finley agrees:

Big Brown is clearly the fastest, most talented horse among the 30 or so 3-year-olds vying for a spot in the Kentucky Derby field and he's coming off one of the most electrifying Derby preps ever run.... Situations like this rarely present themselves: an underlayed Big Brown is absolutely the pick to win the Derby.

As does John at Not to Swift, who's feeling 1981 all over again: "Dutrow and Big Brown are déjà vu."

In typical fashion, my contrarian streak is kicking in as the bandwagon grows crowded. I'm off Big Brown, with his inexperience and single two-turn prep, no matter how thrilling and fast, and onto a new horse -- Gayego, who worked well at Churchill this morning, going five furlongs in 1:01 (fifth of 20 at the distance) over the muddy track.

[Posted April 26, 2008 11:45 AM]
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Smooth Air Spikes Fever

Florida Derby runner-up Smooth Air spiked a fever Thursday and has lost two days of training time. In a press conference this morning, trainer Bennie Stutts said the colt is getting antibiotics and that he is expected to return to the track on Sunday, but that if the situation isn't resolved by Monday, Smooth Air could be out:

"Right now , he is doing much better," Stutts said. "He is bright and eating. "If he is not 100%, he will not run in the Derby. No one wants to run in the derby more than me."

Smooth Air's defection would open up a spot for Bob Black Jack, leaving Denis of Cork at #21 and out if Lexington winner Behindatthebar goes, a possibility still being mulled over by trainer Todd Pletcher. "He said the horse has a lot of energy and is doing real good," reported owner Satish Sanan, "so he wants to work the horse and then make the call" (ThoroTimes).

DRF reports that Sanan tried to swing a deal with owner William Warren to ensure Denis of Cork's Derby entry:

"He did contact me after his first race, and he contacted my trainer earlier this week," Warren said Friday from his office in Tulsa, Okla. "He wanted to trade 50 percent of Behindatthebar for 50 percent of Denis of Cork, with the idea of having Denis of Cork in the Derby and Behindatthebar in the Preakness."

Warren rejected the offer: "It's best not to have partners."

[Posted April 26, 2008 9:35 AM]
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Drive Time

An event as rich in tradition as the Kentucky Derby is sure to have plenty of ancillary traditions as well.

Some, like tomorrow's running races or the Great Balloon Race are shared experiences.

Others are personal.

One such experience for me that kicks off Derby week is the drive from my home in Lexington to Louisville. Chasing the setting Sun heading west on Interstate 64 I pass Thoroughbred farms of Midway and Georgetown.

There are a few mares with their foals out, and it's hard not to think about those babies arriving in Louisville in 2011.

One of my favorite pieces of art is Celeste Susany's Chance of a Lifetime because it captures the essence of the Derby so perfectly.

I'm fortunate enough to experience the Derby—and traditions such as my drive over—annually, but for the horses who will go postward on May 3, this is the one chance they will get to wear the roses.

[Posted April 25, 2008 11:30 PM]
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Friday Morning Notes

- Jockey Gabe Saez will ride Eight Belles if she goes in the Kentucky Derby, said trainer Larry Jones. The filly will be entered in both the Oaks and the Derby, with the decision for which race she starts in resting on the post position draw.

- Brad Free rethinks likely Derby favorites Colonel John and Big Brown: "The closer one examines their last starts, the less appealing they become" (DRF+).

- Del Mar will water its Polytrack this summer. "Our goal is to lessen the difference between afternoon and morning," said racing director Tom Robbins (DRF). Horsemen complained last year that the track's consistency varied across the day, and that a lack of moisture was causing the track to slow down too much in the afternoon.

- Meanwhile, at Santa Anita, trainers are complaining that last Sunday's meeting with Magna chairman Frank Stronach was fixed so that only synthetic sympathizers were present. "A stacked deck would be a polite way of describing it," said trainer John Sadler. "It was a complete farce" (Star-News).

- Dick Powell laments Sky Beauty's exclusion from the Hall of Fame: "We say we want a drug-free, level-playing field and yet we are punishing Sky Beauty for her record at other tracks where those jurisdictions permitted Lasix."

- Closing day flyer: KEE, R10, Glorious Cause (ML 12-1).

- Guest blogger Ed DeRosa heads to Louisville today. Look for his reports from Churchill beginning this weekend.

- Comments are temporarily closed due to an upsurge in spam. Questions, comments, links: please email.

[Posted April 25, 2008 10:00 AM]
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All Quiet at Churchill

Not much going on with the Oaks starters or the likely Derby contenders. Cool Coal Man was the only one to work at Churchill Downs this morning, going four furlongs in :47.51 in company with stablemate Chris Got Even. The day's most exciting action happened at Palm Meadows, where Big Brown breezed through five furlongs in :58.60, delighting trainer Rick Dutrow. "I just can't believe he went that fast. He looked like he was galloping along when he went past me" (ThoroTimes). Big Brown ships to Churchill on Monday.

[Posted April 24, 2008 5:30 PM]
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The Longer the Meet Goes

... the more the adjusted average daily win mutuel drops at Keeneland this spring:

Keeneland average daily mutuels

Sounds like trainer Dale Romans is on to something with his comment, "I'm not so sure [betting on Keeneland] would be a problem if it were longer than a two-week meet, so they can get a gauge on who's running well" (Herald-Leader).

Over on Left at the Gate, Alan makes the point that the problem of fewer winning favorites at Keeneland could also be due to the meet being so competitive. Makes sense. Consider the stats: Through Wednesday, favorites won 28/132 races (21%) and finished in the money in 77/132 races (58%). If you break the races down into Polytrack and turf, the split is 24/106 win (23%), 60/106 ITM (57%) on poly and 4/26 win (15%), 18/26 ITM (69%) on turf. The turf fields are certainly competitive, and it looks like the synthetic fields are as well. With a little more time and a little less Poly-hysteria, the numbers might come into line with what handicappers expect at endless meets like Aqueduct.

[Posted April 24, 2008 10:30 AM]
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Still Adjusting to Dirt

Mike Welsch observes Colonel John on the Churchill dirt and notes some hesitancy in the California colt's action:

Colonel John had his second opportunity to try the Churchill Downs strip on a warm, sun-drenched morning shortly after the renovation break on Wednesday. And while the gallop went without incident, Colonel John, a well-made son of Tiznow, gave the appearance he still might not be completely comfortable over the surface. He strode along more like he was still testing and acclimating himself to the new footing rather than reaching out, as one would expect he usually does over familiar ground back home.

Colonel John has a couple more days to adjust: He's scheduled to have his final Derby workout this weekend.

[Posted April 23, 2008 9:45 PM]
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I'll Wait to Join ...

So, I've been trying to muster interest in the NTRA Horseplayers' Coalition, which sounded exciting when its formation was announced earlier this year but is decidedly less so now that it has formally launched with the sexy topic of tax reform at the top of its agenda. Horseplayers can join for $25, for which they'll get legislative updates and discounts from such companies as John Deere and UPS. As Dana points out, the timing is good for what's essentially a horseplayers' political action committee, and to be fair, the coalition builds on two things the NTRA does well -- Capitol Hill lobbying and managing its purchasing program. I'm certainly not opposed to reforming the unfair taxes heaped on handicappers, having had the good fortune in 2007 to run into the IRS' outdated and onerous reporting and withholding rules -- what was abstractly unpleasant became practically so -- and yet, I haven't rushed to sign up. I can't shake the sense that this group is more about serving the industry than about serving horseplayers, who care about taxes, but also care about doping, transparency and integrity, takeout, and ongoing ADW disruptions. I'd like to join a coalition that truly represents players on all those matters, not just the one issue that's in sync with establishment concerns.

[Posted April 23, 2008 5:30 PM]
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Tale of Ekati, Going Easily

- Tale of Ekati breezed five furlongs in 1:00.20 at Keeneland this morning. Clockers noted the Barclay Tagg trainee was "going easily at the wire, galloped out 113.2" (video). On Tuesday, Visionaire and Big Truck worked over the synthetic surface, while at Churchill, Halo Najib worked four furlongs in :50.40 over the firm turf course.

- It's the last week of racing at Aqueduct and I'm sure I'm not the only one looking forward to the change of scene that comes with Belmont's opening. The move from inner dirt to main track signals spring and refreshes the meet, but not quite enough. Bob Ike would like a week-long intermission during Santa Anita's ponderous winter meet; I wouldn't mind the same in New York. Or for that matter, a week between meets on a circuit, giving everyone a chance to reflect and recharge before the racing starts up again.

- My Pal Charlie, second to Pyro in the Louisiana Derby and fifth in the Arkansas Derby, will start next in the Lone Star Derby, which will benefit again this year from an overflow list of Derby prospects, reports Gary West on his new blog.

[Posted April 23, 2008 2:00 PM]
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Who's in your five?

I thought I'd piggyback on Jessica's post to A) introduce myself and B) post my own Derby five as of Tuesday night.

My name is Ed DeRosa, and I am news editor of Thoroughbred Times. More importantly for the purpose of this exercise, I am a race fan and avid bettor who thoroughly enjoys many of the racing-related blogs both in and out of the TBA.

I'm a frequent reader/commenter on Railbird, Handride, Thoroughbredblog, Cristblog, and on the Thorograph forum. I have enjoyed the dialog and now look forward to dissecting the Derby with Jessica and her readers.

I'll be in Louisville "on assignment" beginning Friday night and hope to bring some on-site perspective to one of my favorite racing blogs. Michael Tynan of fellow TBA member Thoroughbredblog will also be on site.

So who's in my five?

1. Z Fortune... this horse is starting to pick up steam, but I can't imagine him being anything less than a $20 horse, so I'm on board.

2. Gayego... There's a horse like this every year—the horse who "can't get the distance," and the price improves because everyone just keeps repeating that mantra. More on this later, but for now I like him at the price. Obviously I think the Arkansas Derby is a key race.

3. Colonel John... This is more a "I think he deserves a top three ranking" selection than a "I'll play him in all my tris" selection, but it's hard to fault what he's done so far and the consistency with which he's done it, and if I like Gayego, I have to like Colonel John at least a little bit right?

4. Big Brown... Depending on which numbers you trust most, he's either the fastest by a lot or fastest by a little but clearly the fastest. It's hard to ignore Dutrow's enthusiasm for this horse, and that type of attitude is infectious Derby week, but I'm going to stay away at a short price.

5. Smooth Air... My Derby budget (for the race itself) is usually about $100, which doesn't give me a lot of wiggle room to get too jazzy, but if I strike it rich on Oaks day or during the undercard, then I might try to just single this guy underneath to hit the tri. He's consistent and fast enough to make an impact.

Thanks for having me, Jessica!

[Posted April 22, 2008 8:59 PM]
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Derby 5 - April 22

1. Big Brown: What can I say? The giddy confidence expressed by trainer Rick Dutrow in the NTRA teleconference this afternoon was infectious. Big Brown has the speed; he just has to beat history.

2. Colonel John: Santa Anita Derby winner ships to Churchill without incident. Trainer Eoin Harty warns, "If you ignore the synthetic races, you ignore them at your peril."

3. Gayego: Arkansas Derby winner is exhibit #1 backing up Harty's contention.

4. Z Fortune: Trainer Steve Asmussen's sleeper starter.

5. Eight Belles: Probably belongs in the Oaks, but I'd love to see her try the Derby.

[Posted April 22, 2008 4:30 PM]
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Tuesday Morning Notes

- Trainer Larry Jones said Proud Spell has only a 15 percent chance of entering the Derby. Salute the Sarge is also likely out, which bumps Bob Black Jack up into the field, and puts Tomcito tantalizingly close to a post.

- Pyro breezed six furlongs at Keeneland in company with stakes winner Noonmark, but no official time was given due to dense fog that obscured the track. "He worked well, but there was no way of knowing how fast he went," said assistant trainer Scott Blasi. "[Clockers] wanted to make up times, this or that, but there was no way anybody clocked him. He worked outstanding" (ThoroTimes). Pyro will ship to Churchill Tuesday.

- Jockey Edgar Prado and trainer Carl Nafzger are elected to the Hall of Fame, in their first appearance on the ballot.

- Jay Cronley one-liner: "Value is defined in handicapping as an obvious loser with a tempting price."

- The NY Times launches The Rail, a Triple Crown blog.

- Curlin gets back to work.

[Posted April 22, 2008 7:45 AM]
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Blood-Horse Goes Digital

Blood-Horse Digital

Last month, I wrote about waffling over renewing my Blood-Horse subscription. Too much print, I complained, and wished for an online-only version of the magazine. A few days later, a nice note from Blood-Horse circulation director Marla B. appeared in my inbox. They were working on just such a product, she wrote, and offered access to the beta, which is how I've been happily reading the magazine since. The screenshot above gives a sense of what Blood-Horse digital looks like: Basically, the complete contents of the print magazine are loaded into a cool browser-based reader, allowing the viewer to flip through pages, search for text, search archived issues, click on links within articles and ads, and so on. It's a merger of print and web publishing that works surprisingly well.

Marla emailed last week that the digital edition is launching soon with a special introductory price of $39 for a year (which Railbird readers can get by calling 800-582-5604 and saying they saw it on this site). Blood-Horse readers with an existing subscription can convert to the digital edition with any unused print subscription time applied to the digital.

In case you're wondering: No, I'm not getting a cut of each subscription or any other payment. This little commercial announcement comes about because I'm a pleased reader who really likes what Blood-Horse is doing online, and this is how I'll be renewing my subscription ...

[Posted April 21, 2008 10:00 AM]
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Sticking With Synthethic

Although Santa Anita president Ron Charles was careful to say no decision had been made to renovate the track's synthetic surface or install dirt in time for the Breeders' Cup, owner Frank Stronach strongly hinted the track would keep its synthetic surface for now after meeting with trainers and owners on Sunday, reports the LA Times:

"I personally prefer dirt, but the majority of the horsemen I met with like synthetic. So I figure if we are this far into it, we should give a synthetic track another year or two, then make a change if we need to."

So, I guess Pyro won't be running out west this fall.

Addendum: Thanks to fellow blogger David for mentioning Stronach's Sunday HRTV interview in which he spoke as a breeder and seemed to be leaning towards a new dirt track. More about those comments on View From the Quarter Pole.

[Posted April 21, 2008 9:55 AM]
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Weekend Odds & Ends

Suburban Day at Sheepshead

- Mr. Railbird and I joined the hipster hordes at Brooklyn Flea this afternoon, lured by the promise of Wafels & Dinges (delicious) and the possibility of sports memorabilia (non-existent), although I did find a postcard of Suburban Day at Sheepshead Bay (above) at the stand of a vintage postcard purveyor. The card was mailed by one Mae Sterling of Brooklyn to A. F. Rockwell of New Haven (with the request to "Please send one in return") not long after the 1905 renewal of the Suburban Handicap, which was won by the great racemare Beldame, who conceded weight to all 10 rivals and finished 1 1/2 lengths ahead of a horse named Proper as the 6-5 favorite. Beldame raced twice more, then was retired and bred to Meddle, a stallion selected in part by an essay contest and a committee of breeding experts. No mention of the Suburban in Mae's note, unfortunately, so I can only guess that she was a fan of the enormously popular champion filly once called "super-colossal" and "a public idol" for her considerable achievements, for which she is honored annually by the G1 Beldame Stakes at Belmont Park.

- Trainer Todd Pletcher said Lexington Stakes winner Behindatthebar would probably skip the Derby, even though his $204,500 in graded earnings are enough for a post. "I'd say if he's going to run in one of the classics, the Preakness would be more likely" (Courier-Journal). That must be welcome news to all connections with horses on the bubble. Behindatthebar was credited with a 99 Beyer speed figure for the race, which looked more like a route over dirt than Polytrack with the Bob Baffert-trained Samba Rooster blazing through opening fractions of :22.78 and :45.21.

- On the Sunday worktab: Colonel John breezed five furlongs in :59.40 at Santa Anita. At Churchill, Adriano worked five furlongs in 1:01.80 with jockey Edgar Prado aboard. At Keeneland, Eight Belles worked four furlongs in :46.40, the second-fastest of 39 at the distance.

- Trainer Rick Dutrow plans to go all in on Big Brown in the Derby, just as he did with Saint Liam in the 2005 Classic.

- Freshman sire Chapel Royal gets his first winner.

[Posted April 20, 2008 10:45 PM]
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Big Brown Works

- Likely Derby favorite Big Brown breezed five furlongs in 1:00.60 and galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.40 at Palm Meadows on Friday morning. Trainer Rick Dutrow called the move "beautiful," clockers described it as "workmanlike." Big Brown will work at Palm Meadows once more, then ship to Churchill on April 28. Paul Moran notes that the trainer is keeping his horse in Florida partly for consideration of Big Brown's feet, which Dutrow reports are now problem-free.

- Sounds like War Pass is still tired from his second-place finish in the Wood. "I think anybody could see it was a gut-wrenching performance," said trainer Nick Zito, "so I've kind of been taking it easy with him" (BRIS). Stablemate Anak Nakal, exiting a fifth-place finish in the same race, worked four furlongs in :49.40 at Churchill Downs. War Pass is expected to breeze in a few days. 4/19 Update: War Pass is out of the Derby with a sesamoid fracture.

- Interesting: Tomcito trains without a saddle.

[Posted April 18, 2008 11:55 PM]
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What's So Great ...

About the Internet is that you can do such things as set up Google alerts for simple keywords -- like "racehorses" -- and your email will deliver notice of an overlooked Trollope novel, recommended by Jane Smiley, no less.

[Posted April 18, 2008 11:45 PM]
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Refining the Entry List

Steven Crist supports a points system for Kentucky Derby entries, writing in his DRF+ column:

You can't mandate that tracks standardize purses to match up to grades, but a point system rather than an earnings tally could effectively accomplish that -- something like 9, 6, and 3 points for the first three finishers in a Grade 1 race, 6-4-2 for a Grade 2, and 3-2-1 for a Grade 3 would be more fair than the current earnings system. This also opens the possibility of weighting 3-year-old races more strongly than 2-year-old races instead of giving horses as much credit for irrelevant sprint performances eight months before post time as for routes in their final prep.
At first this might seem complicated, but it really is more straightforward than the earnings system, which is riddled with inequities not only in gross purses but in state-to-state variations on purse splits and added monies. A point system would actually simplify things.

Patrick's a couple steps ahead: Here's what a points-based list would look like for this year's Derby.

[Posted April 18, 2008 8:10 PM]
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Today's Longshot Flyer

KEE, R7: Olemiss Rebel (ML 15-1). [Never mind, Olemiss scratched. Thanks to EJXD2 and Mr. Railbird for the alerts. EJXD2 points to Acoma (3-1) in this spot, which I can see, although Allseas (10-1), on the improve, stretching out, and making her third start, intrigues me a little more.]

[Posted April 18, 2008 11:05 AM]
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Visions of Roses

- Court Vision, wearing blinkers, breezed four furlongs in :46.20 at Churchill this morning, and even though Steve Haskin didn't catch the work, he saw something special:

This is when the roses began to burst. Court Vision went a half in :46 1/5 breezing, galloping out five-eighths in about 1:00 3/5 under exercise rider Neil Poznanski. The work was the fastest of 25 at the distance and a full second faster than the second fastest work. Another clocker caught him in :45 and change. When a horse of this quality undergoes such a dramatic change, especially at Churchill Downs, where he has already won a grade II stakes, it is exactly what you're looking for.

Garrett Gomez rides Court Vision and has no plans to pursue another Derby horse, reports Dick Powell. "Despite all the rumors, agent Ron Anderson stated that his rider, Garrett Gomez, will stay aboard ... and not switch to Pyro, as many were speculating." Are many speculating because Shaun Bridgmohan is about to be replaced on Pyro following the Blue Grass disappointment? Powell doesn't say.

- Tale of Ekati worked four furlongs in :49.20 at Keeneland. Trainer Barclay Tagg said Eibar Coa would ride the Wood winner in the Derby and that Javier Castellano would ride Big Truck, #20 on the graded earnings list and still pointing to the race despite his 11th-place finish in the Blue Grass.

- Trainer Larry Jones could have two fillies in the Derby.

[Posted April 17, 2008 10:00 PM]
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I Heart Synthetics

Thanks for all the great comments on this post linking to Andrew Beyer's column about the Blue Grass. I'm reminded of why I enjoy this game so much: It's a perpetual puzzle that attracts smart people and spirited discussion, and it's one of the few hobbies or pursuits that doesn't just reward contrarianism, but practically demands it.

I like synthetic surfaces: I went to Turfway in 2006 to see Polytrack up close, I started following the Southern California circuit with the advent of Cushion Track at Hollywood, I prefer playing Keeneland Polytrack to Keeneland dirt. Putting aside the safety question, I enjoy handicapping these surfaces. I like that stamina is rewarded and cheap speed folds, that new pedigree plays are popping up. Synthetics shake up the scene, create new challenges and betting opportunities, and if they're properly installed and maintained, they play fair. Like commenter 'Crunk, I've found there are differences between the surfaces -- just as there between dirt tracks -- and I've adjusted my handicapping.

I won't argue that some surfaces aren't quirkier than others -- that the pick six at Keeneland went unhit for seven days and that favorites through Sunday had won only 18% of races (although, favorites did finish in the money 63% of the time, so it's not total chaos in Kentucky), suggests horses and handicappers are struggling with the surface there -- but neither am I willing to throw up my hands and declare synthetic track results bizarre and incomprehensible, at least not any more so than I would other surfaces, such as Aqueduct's inner dirt mid-winter.

As for the Blue Grass and what it means for the Derby: Monba is a solid and versatile, if uninspiring, colt. Throw out the Fountain of Youth, credit his myectomy for the Blue Grass turnaround, and you're left with a middling horse who could win the Derby if this year's field were filled with similarly dull beasts. (Aside: When will horseplayers get disclosure of surgical procedures performed between races? It's ridiculous that Monba flipped his palate and had throat surgery to prevent another displacement and that wasn't officially reported anywhere.) Pyro didn't take to the track and he didn't show anything in the stretch. He seems to have come out of the race fine, so he'll almost certainly bounce back to his pre-Keeneland performance level in the Derby, but it won't be enough, no matter how well he works. That says more about the rigors of the Derby than it does about the surface of the Blue Grass.

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Related: Ellis Starr says "Adapt or die!" when it comes to synthetic surfaces. That's harsher than I'd put it, but it's not the worst advice ...

[Posted April 17, 2008 12:30 PM]
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Wednesday Evening Notes

- Edgar Prado chooses to ride Adriano in the Kentucky Derby over Monba and Tale of Ekati. "Obviously I'm thrilled, not only that Edgar's riding him, but that, in doing so, he's endorsing the horse," said trainer Graham Motion (DRF). Ramon Dominguez picks up the mount on Monba.

- So true: "The Derby is so popular that everybody wants to participate," said trainer Todd Pletcher. "The whole earnings thing has so much more focus that people no longer feel like they have to justify being there, that the graded earnings justify it for the horse" (Courier-Journal). Maybe there should be another way, like standings or a committee.

- Stakes-placed Little Cliff narrowly avoids a gruesome fate.

[Posted April 16, 2008 7:00 PM]
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This Isn't Derby Fever ...

It's madness:

Trainer Eric Guillot was refreshingly candid during an April 15 teleconference hosted by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, calling his horse "one of the 15 who might not belong," but saying a trip to the Kentucky Derby ... is definitely under consideration for Salute the Sarge.

Guillot further said Salute the Sarge -- a fine sprinter who's won 4 of 7 starts at distances ranging from 5 to 6 1/2 furlongs -- could be used as a rabbit, and that he just wants to find out how good his horse is in a route:

"Even though he's bred to go a mile at best, we had to take the opportunity -- especially with the Derby coming up."

Salute the Sarge has $258,940 in graded earnings, enough for a Derby post, and is expected to start on Saturday in the Lexington Stakes. Should he show up in the Derby, I'll take no pleasure in tossing this one while handicapping. He's too good a horse to be ruined by such foolishness.

[Posted April 15, 2008 8:30 PM]
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Derby 8 - April 15

1. Colonel John: Moves to the top of the list after last weekend's preps. Worked four furlongs in :47.40 over the Santa Anita main track on Monday. Trainer Eoin Harty plans to ship the colt to Churchill next week.

2. Big Brown: Still a little hung up on his feet and inexperience, but he does have speed.

3. Gayego: Ran the final eighth in :12.68 after chasing quick early fractions in the Arkansas Derby.

4. Z Fortune: Cycling back into form? Can't say he's not bred for the distance or lacks preparation.

5. Tale of Ekati: Wood winner looks better after the ugly Blue Grass knocks out Big Truck and Cool Coal Man.

6. Eight Belles: The Derby would be her first race against the boys, but the way the field is shaping up, that might not be a problem.

7. War Pass: Credit for how game he was in the Wood. Might not fold easily in the Derby.

8. Pyro: Can't see him winning the Derby off the Blue Grass, not matter how he works, but can't see leaving him out of exotics either.

[Posted April 15, 2008 5:45 PM]
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Synth to Dirt, No Problem

A little breakfast time research yields this nugget:

Of the 460 nominees to the Triple Crown, 61 have made the switch from a synthetic surface to a fast dirt track. Of those, 47* improved or replicated their synthetic form on dirt.

Will the California form of Colonel John and Bob Black Jack hold up at Churchill? The odds look good it will.

[*Details in this Google doc. Note: Only horses who raced primarily on synthetics at the start of their careers and who switched from such a surface to a fast dirt track are included (so those whose single dirt starts were in the Monmouth BC slop are not represented). Also, I made no distinctions between synthetic surfaces and didn't consider class or distance changes. Generally, results were marked positive (P) if a horse showed an improved BSF and/or finish position, negative (N) if the opposite, and consistent (C) if it ran +/- 3 BSF and/or showed similar placing.]

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Now, now, Andy, this isn't so:

But in the 3-year-old stakes races that precede the Kentucky Derby, the presence of synthetic tracks has not merely complicated the game. It has made rational handicapping judgments almost impossible.

Synthetics are different, but not inexplicable.

[Posted April 15, 2008 8:00 AM]
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Pyro "Didn't Do Enough"

- Pyro came out of his tenth-place finish as the even-money favorite in Saturday's Blue Grass "bright-eyed and looking full of run," which has trainer Steve Asmussen concerned the colt didn't get enough out of his final Kentucky Derby prep and prompting a change to Pyro's training. Bill Finley reports the colt will get some competition in his next work:

"I'm definitely worried that he didn't do enough in the Blue Grass," Asmussen said. "I would have worked him by himself. Now, his next work will definitely be in company. I just can't look at the Blue Grass as a hard race."

I'm doubtful Pyro can turn things around in three weeks, working in company or not. He lacks a good final prep at nine furlongs (defined as winning or finishing ITM or within three lengths of the winner) and his Blue Grass Beyer is 73. In the last 15 years, no horse has won the Derby coming off a speed figure less than 91 and only Street Sense -- who had other factors in his favor -- has won the Derby off anything resembling a regression.

- Saying his decision would depend on the Ragozin numbers and how she trains over the next couple weeks, owner Rick Porter is considering entering Eight Belles in the Derby:

"We know she'll get the distance, number one, and we know she has a lot of heart," he said. "She can run on the front, she can stalk and come from off the pace ... she's a very talented filly and with the competition out there, with the colts this year, she fits right in with the top three or four 3-year-olds in America." (Blood-Horse, via Valerie)

If entered, Eight Belles would go into the Derby off four wins, and the 99 Beyer she earned in the Fantasy is one of the better numbers run in a two-turn stakes this season. Porter is leaving his options open, however, and said that he might cross-enter the filly in the Kentucky Oaks, determining which race she would start in only after the post draw:

"The only negative is she doesn't break sharply from the gate, and if she got an outside post in the Derby that wouldn't help us," said Porter. Then we'd have the option of running in the Oaks, but I think she can run with the boys." (AP)

- Gayego ships to Churchill this morning. "He's doing good," said assistant trainer Martin Morales of the Arkansas Derby winner on Sunday, "and he's ready for the next one" (BRIS).

- "Big Brown is going to be the favorite," said oddsmaker Mike Battaglia of the Derby morning line after Saturday's prep races (Courier-Journal). Colonel John will be second. What to do with Pyro is the question.

[Posted April 14, 2008 9:30 AM]
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Doped, But Never Failed

A prominent track and field coach is about to go on trial for doping and lawyers on both sides plan to prove that cheaters are steps ahead of sports authorities. Consider:

The I.A.A.F. performed 3,277 drug tests last year and barred only 10 athletes for doping. In her career, [Marion Jones] passed more than 160 drug tests.

You don't have to be paranoid to wonder if the doping problem is as -- or even more -- widespread in racing with millions of dollars in purses at stake.

[Posted April 14, 2008 9:20 AM]
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Gayego, Monba Move Up

The earnings list and prep race results chart are updated and Arkansas Derby winner Gayego assumes a new prominence on both, moving to #5 with $640,000 in graded stakes earnings and scoring a Beyer speed figure of 103 for his first try on dirt. The effort suggests this year's California Derby contingent is strong, making Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John look all the better. Monba, well down on the graded earnings list before Saturday, is now headed to the Derby with $515,000 and a 92 Beyer for winning the Blue Grass, as is stablemate and Blue Grass runner-up Cowboy Cal, now #16 on the list with $207,660 in earnings.

[Posted April 13, 2008 12:00 PM]
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Today's Longshot Flyer

KEE, R5: Life Lesson (ML 12-1). [Results: Sent off at 7-1 odds, Life Lesson broke alertly, took an early lead, and gamely hung on through the stretch to win. But, she was disqualified and bumped to third for so-called interference after drifting into the path of Dan's Pride -- note, into the path, not into the horse or even all that near -- who deadheated for second with Temper Temper. I'm quite disappointed.]

Kip Seville, a full sister to BC Mile winner Kip Deville (who captured the Maker's Mark Mile at Keeneland on Friday in his return to the track), also starts in this race. The gray 3-year-old filly made her debut in February at the Fair Grounds in a turf route, a race in which she ran wide throughout and was never involved. She makes the switch to Polytrack here, cuts back to seven furlongs, gets blinkers, and at 15-1 morning line, warrants a look in this spot. [Showed some improvement with the blinkers and ran much closer to the pace; definitely one for the watch list.]

[Posted April 12, 2008 10:20 AM]
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Friday Morning Notes

- Bob Ike finds the Derby picture crystal clear: "This year's Kentucky Derby winner will be one of the following three horses: BIG BROWN, COLONEL JOHN or PYRO. Period, end of discussion."

- Big news in the bloodstock world: Auction house Fasig-Tipton will be sold to Synergy, a Dubai-based company headed by an associate of Sheikh Mohammed. "Business will continue as usual," said CEO Boyd Browning of the deal, before noting there would be changes (Blood-Horse).

- A reminder, in case anyone needs one, that speed figures are subjective.

- The on-track fatality rates reported last month at the Racehorse Welfare and Safety Summit, which initially showed little difference between dirt and synthetic surfaces, have been revised. In updated stats released on Thursday, "the rate of synthetic fatalities dropped 24.6% and the dirt fatality rate increased 3%."

- With three weeks remaining until the Kentucky Derby, where do the prep results leave us? Dick Powell's still not on the Pyro bandwagon, but "if it's a last-man-standing contest, it's to Pyro's advantage."

[Posted April 11, 2008 10:25 AM]
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FSIM Opens Next Friday

First Saturday in May
Filmmaker Brad Hennegan and the man* who bought the first tickets in New York to the Friday night opening of FSIM.

Don't forget! "The First Saturday in May," the feel-good documentary by the Hennegan Brothers that follows six 2006 Kentucky Derby prospects, including Barbaro and Lawyer Ron, from preps to post, opens in theaters across the country beginning April 18. Find a theater near you.

Thumbs up! Both Dana and Teresa have all the details on the New York screening and reviews of the movie. Since I'm an inept critic, I'll throw you over to Green But Game and Brooklyn Backstretch for much more on this delightful film ...

[Posted April 10, 2008 11:55 PM]
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It's a Start

NTRA president Alex Waldrop launches a blog.

[Posted April 10, 2008 4:45 PM]
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Lucky Hockey Fans

And no, I'm not talking about Teresa getting a sweaty blue shirt, as fun as that sounded. Earlier this week PaidContent reported that the NHL is expanding its online presence with a video player that offers seven channels (more to come as each of the league's teams add content) and deep archives:

The new channels, organized around themes, give the league a way to pull its digital content into linear viewing instead of piecemeal. At the same time, users have flexibility to pick clips and to go deep. For instance, click "more" under the results of a game in the Game Highlights channel and you can see a list of goals and click on the corresponding video as I did with Sunday's 500th goal by Keith Tkachuk, then click on his name and see video clips for his goals stretching back to November 2005 after the hockey lock-out ended.

Imagine such a video player for racing. Or, something like MLB's Mosaic. (Admittedly, Mosaic is problem-prone and not everyone loves it, but still -- six games at once!)

One thing that struck me reading about the player is that its development was overseen by the NHL's VP of broadband and new media production. That's one benefit of having a real league office -- your sport can hire someone to direct these sorts of fan-friendly innovations.

[Posted April 10, 2008 11:45 AM]
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Denis of Cork Out?

If it were April 1, I'd think this notice from Denis of Cork's owner William Warren on Paul Moran's blog was a joke, but it looks quite genuine:

I take sole responsibility for the decision to run in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. Denis of Cork's poor showing was not due to the jockey, Julien Leparoux, or my trainer, David Carroll. The disaster was my fault alone.
I have never made such a bad decision in horse racing as the one I made to take Denis of Cork to Hawthorne. After the race, Suzanne was devastated and I was in total shock. The race was a complete failure and has probably eliminated Denis from the Kentucky Derby.

After some discussion of the speed bias Warren claims to have seen at Hawthorne (Warren made the mistake of going to Hawthorne, but Hawthorne is to blame for the track playing unfairly) Warren goes on to apologize to everyone who wagered on Denis of Cork. How odd. And refreshing.

[Posted April 9, 2008 9:40 PM]
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Wednesday Evening Notes

- Travis Stone points out that Tiznow, sire of Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John, is the leading sire of runners on synthetic surfaces. What he doesn't mention is that Tiznow is second on the overall leading sires list, behind Smart Strike, whose offspring include turf and dirt stars, and that three of the five top sires overall also appear on the synthetic list. Good sires are versatile.

- Colonel John was easily the most impressive Kentucky Derby prep winner on Saturday, rallying late and running the final eighth of the nine-furlong race in an even :12 after overcoming a tough pace scenario, but he wasn't finished at the wire, as Steve Haskin noticed while watching the colt gallop out:

Nakatani, apparently sensing that Colonel John had done his only serious running in the final sixteenth, wanted him to keep going and gallop out strong. He waved the whip at him crossing the wire, and then gave him a tap on the shoulder with the handle of the whip before pulling on his left rein and snapping the right rein against the colt's shoulder. As a result, Colonel John was able to run through the wire and continue on at a decent clip without easing to the outside, as many horses will do when galloping out. It was a clever move by Nakatani, who has to make sure the colt doesn't put himself in that position again in the Derby. He'll have to quicken earlier, and can't afford to let horses whiz by him at the three-eighths pole.

- Giant Moon is possible for the Preakness after finishing fourth in the Wood. "We accomplished a lot and showed that he belongs in that company," said trainer Richard Schosberg of the effort on Monday.

- Trainer Todd Pletcher acknowledges what I figured out a couple weeks into this year's Road to the Roses contest and everyone knew after Saturday: He has no Kentucky Derby horses. "We are struggling right now" (Times Union).

- Fran of Hoofcare goes to Florida and gets the story on Big Brown's bad feet straight from trainer Rick Dutrow.

[Posted April 9, 2008 7:30 PM]
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Derby Fever in Full Bloom

- Trainer David Carroll is throwing out Denis of Cork's fifth-place finish in the Illinois Derby and will train the colt for a start in the Kentucky Derby. "I have so much confidence in the horse," said Carroll. "I'm not going to make excuses ... [the Illinois Derby] was a nonevent as far as I'm concerned" (Courier-Journal). That Denis of Cork was returning off a seven-week layoff after winning the Southwest Stakes makes the logic of Carroll's statement almost plausible, but the Illinois Derby was Denis of Cork's second and last prep and he showed little. "We had a good trip and when I asked him at the 3/8ths pole, I thought he was ready to go," said jockey Julien Leparoux after. "He kept going but there was no kick to get there" (Blood-Horse). No kick on Saturday, probably no kick four weeks from now.

- Lane's End winner Adriano, prepping for a start in the April 19 Lexington Stakes, may go in the Kentucky Derby instead. "We wouldn't run him in both races," Motion said. "I'd say at this point we're leaning a little bit more toward the Derby than the Lexington" (Thoroughbred Times). In Adriano's only dirt start, the Fountain of Youth, the colt finished ninth, although whether that was because of the surface or because he became unsettled in the paddock is uncertain. Motion said he would send Adriano to Churchill this week to work over the track.

- War Pass bounced back from his Tampa Bay Derby defeat to finish second in the Wood, which delighted trainer Nick Zito: "I'm happy with how he ran. He wasn't up the track" (WashPost). It was a pretty good result considering the front-runner had to contend with a tiring track that was unkind to speed in most of the day's races and a rabbit dogging him through the first half. "He got a lot out of this race," said owner Robert LaPenta, who was confident the juvenile champion would go on to Churchill. "This was a great conditioning race. I don't think anybody will be doing 22 and change in the Derby" (Courier-Journal). That's not a bet I would take. In eight of the past 10 years, the first quarter of the Derby was run in 22 and change:

With Big Brown and Recapturetheglory in the field, it's unlikely War Pass will get the luxury of -- or the opportunity to dictate -- a moderate pace.

[Posted April 9, 2008 11:15 AM]
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Derby 8 - April 8

1. Pyro: Solid, consistent Pyro put in his final work for the Blue Grass Stakes on Monday morning, going four furlongs in :50.60 at Keeneland without company. He'll start on Saturday without the pressure of having to win -- although, as Winchell racing manager David Fiske said in the NTRA teleconference on Tuesday, it would be nice to do so.

2. Colonel John: I hope racing analysts and handicappers continue to fret over the Santa Anita Derby winner's lack of dirt-racing experience, because that will make his Derby day odds so much better. By Tiznow, two-time winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic, and out of Turkoman mare Sweet Damsel, a winner on dirt and turf, Colonel John should have no problem running over the organic stuff. If you're concerned, though, pay extra attention to his Churchill training. Trainer Eoin Harty said the colt would have at least one work over the track before the Derby.

3. Big Truck: Worked a bullet four furlongs in :46.40 at Keeneland on Tuesday. Trainer Barclay Tagg said after the Tampa Bay Derby winner remains under consideration for the Blue Grass Stakes.

4. Big Brown: Only Illinois Derby winner Recapturetheglory's 102 Beyer comes close to the figure he posted winning the Florida Derby.

5. Cool Coal Man: Will start in the Blue Grass on Saturday. Has the earnings for the Derby, but needs to show he's ready for the first Saturday in May.

6. Tale of Ekati: Like Valerie, I was early fan of Wood victor Tale of Ekati -- he was a brilliant maiden winner at Saratoga, and going into the prep season I thought he was trainer Tagg's most likely Derby prospect. The sixth place finish in the Louisiana Derby, though, turned me off, especially since the colt was only going to get one more prep before May. Then he won that second prep.

7. Visionaire: Another starting in the Blue Grass. The Gotham winner was hardly flattered by the performance of Texas Wildcatter in the Wood last weekend when that one finished eighth, 33 lengths off the winner.

8. Eight Belles: After Eight Belles brought her winning streak to four with her gutsy victory in the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn, trainer Larry Jones said the filly would start next in the Kentucky Oaks. She's Triple Crown nominated, though, and owner Rick Porter is considering alternate plans. "If we feel Eight Belles has a good chance in the Derby, we'll go the Derby," he said, noting a decision doesn't have to be made until Derby week. Eight Belles has $210,000 in graded stakes earnings, more than enough for a Kentucky Derby post.

[Posted April 8, 2008 10:45 PM]
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Here Comes Everybody

Well, this is interesting: On Left at the Gate yesterday, Alan posted a conversation he had on Saturday at Aqueduct with Breeders' Cup media contact Jim Gluckson about the BC changes announced earlier this year. According to Gluckson, BC officials were taken aback by the ferocity of the criticism and charges of sexism from bloggers, racing forums, and prominent columnists that greeted the news. Changing the name of the Breeders' Cup Distaff to Ladies' Classic was a mistake, albeit well-intentioned, said Gluckson, and going with Filly and Mare Classic might have been a better choice. Hardly scandalous stuff, but you won't find that post on Left at the Gate today. Alan told me in an email that a Breeders' Cup representative asked nicely if he would consider taking down the post since Gluckson was speaking informally, and he chose do so, pending an official statement. (On the web, though, nothing ever disappears.)

I've been reading Clay Shirky's "Here Comes Everybody," which is the tech buzz book of the moment and deservedly so, since it makes sense of how social networks and web 2.0 tools are upending relationships between individuals and institutions, consumers and businesses. Because of blogs, YouTube, and Twitter, the airline passengers' bill of rights is a legislative issue, the world knows about the crackdown on Buddhist monks protesting the Burmese Junta, and Michael Arrington has a working web connection again. Every institution is subject to being reshaped by the net. Racing is no exception, and neither is the industry's struggle to figure out how function in this wired landscape. Just last month, NTRA president Alex Waldrop wrote a column that talked up the organization's web 2.0 strategy for connecting with fans and horseplayers:

Already, amateur bloggers and core fans are communicating and creating content every day on the Internet about racing and the industry. Why not formally enlist them in the process? ... Using the social networking opportunities that dominate the Internet, we can now engage our most enthusiastic players on a massive scale and foster the collaboration so necessary for real change.

Sounds promising, and you can now find widgets, podcasts, and a link to the NTRA Facebook page on ntra.com, but it takes a bit more than that to engage your audience these days. There are two challenges to overcome for this strategy to be a success: One is for institutions like the NTRA and Breeders' Cup to grasp that they don't control the conversation anymore. The traditional model of broadcast communications -- from one to many -- is no longer effective, at least, not if those organizations want to keep and attract fans and customers. The second is to foster a web 2.0 culture within the industry. Not so much among fans and players -- give people the tools and information they want and just watch them create -- but among the managers and executives. What Gluckson told Alan suggests that the industry is paying attention to the conversation happening among its most ardent fans, but the BC's request that Alan reconsider his innocuous post says the old ways still rule.

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By the way, have you signed the petition calling for the Breeders' Cup to restore the name of the Distaff or change it to the Filly and Mare Classic? Click here to add your name -- it sounds like we have a shot at making that happen.

[Posted April 8, 2008 5:05 PM]
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Congratulations ...

To T.D. Thornton, winner of the Castleton Lyons- Thoroughbred Times Book Award for "Not By a Long Shot," (now available in paperback). Complete coverage of the Monograph Mile from Quinella Queen, who rightfully urges all to pick up this winner.

[Posted April 8, 2008 12:00 PM]
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Until Monday ...

Tale of Ekati
Tale of Ekati returning to the winner's circle after the Wood.

Notes on all the weekend racing coming Monday Tuesday. I've been trying today to take a break from the Internet and all web-connected devices, and made it to 9:00 p.m., when I broke down to check email, RSS feeds, and post this quick note. Check out Dana's fantastic wrap-up of all the Saturday action at Aqueduct. (It's true, I was clambering over the third-floor balcony rail to get a better view of the paddock. I am the Railbird, after all.)

A few Beyer speed figures: Recapturetheglory gets the second best figure in a two-turn prep this season, earning 102 for the Illinois Derby; Colonel John scores 95 for the Santa Anita Derby; Tale of Ekati, 93, for the Wood; J Be K, 100, for the Bay Shore; Little Belle, 88, for upsetting the Ashland; Zenyatta, 104, for beating Ginger Punch in the Apple Blossom; and Tiago, 110, for the Oaklawn Handicap.

Prep race results and top 30 by earnings updated.

[Posted April 6, 2008 9:25 PM]
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20 Stops to Aqueduct

It looks like the A train is running locally this weekend, which makes for a long trip to Aqueduct from Brooklyn, but at least my ride will be smoother than War Pass' trip from Florida -- turbulence rocked the Wood favorite's plane and War Pass banged his head, requiring three stitches under the chin.

Quick Wood picks: As a fan, I'm rooting for War Pass to rebound. As a handicapper, I'm playing against the short- priced favorite coming off a clunker. I'm going to go with Texas Wildcatter, who was on the improve before the Gotham, but really jumped up with the addition of blinkers, and I'll be taking a close look at Count Fleet winner Giant Moon (reported to be doing great, although trainers always say that). Like War Pass, he comes off a performance too bad to be believed, finishing last in the Gotham after winning his first four starts, but that was on a foggy day over a sloppy track and I'm willing to ignore that running line.

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Keep track of the 14 stakes races scheduled for this afternoon with this handy timetable thrown together by Steven Crist. Note that eight -- including all five Grade 1 races -- will be run between 5:00-6:00 p.m. ET.

[Posted April 5, 2008 10:30 AM]
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Steroids Once and Forever?

The WSJ reports a small Swedish study suggests the effects of steroids continue after athletes stop using:

Rather than returning to their original proportions, the muscles of the steroid users who'd stopped taking the drug looked remarkably similar to those of the subjects who were still using. They also had larger muscle fibers and more growth-inducing "myonuclei" in their muscle cells than the nonsteroid users.

The study subjects were 26 elite powerlifters, not equines, but I wonder if the same effect would be seen on racehorses previously supplemented ...

[Posted April 4, 2008 3:35 PM]
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Aqueduct Cancels Friday

With rain continuing to fall in New York, NYRA has decided to cancel today's racing at Aqueduct to keep the main track sealed and in condition for the Wood Memorial day card:

"The main track is tight, in good shape, but factoring in that it only opened for racing two days ago and that we have Aqueduct's best day of racing tomorrow, we are doing everything we can to ensure optimum racing conditions for our big Wood Memorial Day card," New York Racing Association Racing Secretary and Handicapper P.J. Campo said. "The track is sealed so moisture doesn't soak in. We're confident that our cautious approach today will result in excellent racing conditions tomorrow."

Rain is forecast through Saturday morning in Ozone Park, with clouds lingering through the afternoon.

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Owner Robert LaPenta has a new theory explaining War Pass' performance in the Tampa Bay Derby, reports Paul Moran on ESPN:

"We all saw him at the top of the stretch, struggling," LaPenta said. "That was not the horse we saw three weeks earlier that basically cruised to [a mile in] 1:36 and came into the winners' circle without even breathing heavy. That was a horse that at the top of the stretch was in distress. I guess the most plausible explanation is that he flipped his palate. We scoped him after the race. There was no congestion. There were no issues. But for a horse to be in that much distress, I'd only have to say that that, to me, is the most probable explanation."

War Pass is the 7-5 morning-line favorite in the Wood.

[Posted April 4, 2008 10:45 AM]
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Record Handle Recorded

- Through the Oregon wagering hub, and this in a year of upsets and disruptions across ADWs:

Wagering through the Oregon Racing Commission hub system jumped 17.4% in 2007, according to data compiled by the state regulatory agency.
A record total of $1,573,680,475 was processed through Oregon hubs in 2007, up from $1,340,375,866 recorded in 2006.

- Doubts about the times for Dubai World Cup races run after the Godolphin Mile have been raised by the Racing Post, whose clockers came up with discrepancies of almost a second in five races, including the Duty Free, in which Jay Peg was credited with a track record:

Jay Peg was recorded as having set a track best of 1min 46.20sec, beating the time of 1min 46.48sec set by Wolf Whistle in January 2005, despite winning trainer Herman Brown saying immediately after the race: "I didn't think they went that fast."

Emirates Racing Authority has removed fractional times for the races from its web site and is conducting an inquiry.

[Posted April 4, 2008 10:00 AM]
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This Includes Racing

"We are plainly witnessing a restructuring of the media businesses, but their suffering isn't unique, it's prophetic. All businesses are media businesses, because whatever else they do, all businesses rely on the managing of information... The increase in the power of both individuals and groups, outside traditional organizational structures is unprecedented. Many institutions we rely on today will not survive this change without significant alteration, and the more an institution or industry relies on information as its core product, the greater and more complete the change will be." -- Clay Shirky, "Here Comes Everybody"

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"People take information and build knowledge. When you give them new information they will create new knowledge, absolutely and without question." -- Bill James, NYT

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And here, Gary Vaynerchuk explains how tech 2008 looks like hip-hop 1985. What we find revolutionary now will be ubiquitous and mainstream in 10 years:

[Posted April 4, 2008 8:50 AM]
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Curlin Returns

- World-beater Curlin returned from Dubai today, arriving at Belmont late this afternoon. He'll remain in the quarantine barn there until Friday and ship to Keeneland on Sunday. Trainer Steve Asmussen plans to give Curlin several weeks off before he begins prepping for a campaign beginning this summer. No word yet on what the rest of the year for the reigning Horse of the Year may look like, other than another shot at the Breeders' Cup Classic, but Jeff Scott suggests Asmussen and owner Jess Jackson try Curlin on the turf -- perhaps in the Arc de Triomphe. I would actually try to get to Paris for that.

- Speaking of returns, Country Star makes her much anticipated 2008 debut in the Ashland at Keeneland on Saturday, which drew a field of seven, including the sharp Proud Spell, installed as the 8-5 morning-line favorite off her victory over the previously undefeated Indian Blessing in the Fair Grounds Oaks, and the reliable Bsharpsonata, winner of four straight, her last the G2 Davona Dale. Also in the mix, Life Is Sweet, a full sister to Sweet Catomine who enters off an allowance win over turf at Gulfstream, Busher Stakes winner Little Belle, and Absolutely Cindy, who attracted attention after beating the boys in the Battaglia Stakes at Turfway, rallying six wide to get the win.

- A field of 10 has been entered for the Wood.

[Posted April 3, 2008 3:30 PM]
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No Place in the Game

Consider: There are no allowed raceday medications in Dubai, so all 83 starters in the Dubai World Cup ran without the anti-bleeding drug Lasix, including 15 American horses who all raced on the powerful diuretic in the US. Of those 15, three won (Curlin!) and two more finished in the money. "Lasix is a fraud," Bill Finley declares, and these results prove it. The time has come for American racing to end its dependence:

There is strong evidence that it is detrimental to the long-term well-being of the horse and some of the world's most respected scientists say it can mask other drugs. Its pervasive use adds to racing's image as an outlaw sport where drug use is rampant. Besides Canada, no other country in the world allows it. Yet, its usage here is out of control and no one seems to want to do anything about it. That needs to change.
[Posted April 3, 2008 8:10 AM]
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Also True of PPs

Bill James on baseball stats: "I would say generally that baseball statistics are always trying to mislead you, and that it is a constant battle not to be misled by them."

[Posted April 2, 2008 10:25 AM]
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A Case of Big Brown Mania

Has Mike Brunker in its feverish grip:

His scintillating victory in the $1 million Florida Derby on Saturday was not just the most brilliant performance in a Kentucky Derby prep this year, it was one of the best races by a 3-year-old I've seen in the 13 years that I've been covering the Triple Crown.
In fact, I'll shinny out even farther out on the limb: This is a colt with the talent to end the 29-year Triple Crown drought as long as his troublesome hooves don't act up and he can overcome his woeful lack of experience to win the Kentucky Derby after just three lifetime starts.

Two words: Bellamy Road. Two more: Sinister Minister.

[Posted April 2, 2008 8:52 AM]
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Keeneland Classic Channel

Great idea, oddly executed. "Tune in"? Not online.

[Posted April 1, 2008 2:40 PM]
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Checkbook Racing

No Dubai World Cup winners for Sheikh Mohammed, but his long-term prospects for racing success look good, if money spent is any indication: "Since the second half of last year he has blown, at a conservative estimate, close to a billion of his estimated £14 billion fortune on horses for racing and breeding, double the sum he is prepared to pay in his ongoing attempt to buy Liverpool FC ..."

[Posted April 1, 2008 11:00 AM]
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Updated Derby 8

1. Pyro: Overshadowed by Florida Derby winner, but still the early Derby favorite. Worked six furlongs in 1:14.60 at Keeneland on Monday. I'm starting to get excited about Pyro -- he's the one Kentucky Derby prospect who has missed no training time and has done everything right so far.

2. Big Truck: Could start in either the Blue Grass or the Holy Bull, or could train up to the Derby, which would be a knock.

3. Big Brown: A little green, a little foot trouble. Can't deny the major talent displayed in the Florida Derby, though.

4. Denis of Cork: Ducks War Pass, ships to Hawthorne for the Illinois Derby in attempt to remain undefeated.

5. Cool Coal Man: Even if War Pass wins the Wood, still like this one for Nick Zito in the Derby.

6. Visionaire: Heads to Blue Grass, meeting with Pyro.

7. King's Silver Sun: Starts next in a loaded Ark Derby.

8. Tomcito: Good show, Peruvian mystery horse.

[Posted April 1, 2008 10:25 AM]
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Headlines - April 1 Special

Hoofblog rounds up headlines you might have missed:

"WANTED" HORSE CRISIS PEAKS IN USA: As gas passes $10 per gallon, horse demand soars. “Everyone wants one,” moans auctioneer at New Holland (PA) sale. “And no one's selling!” Rescue farms forced to mow empty pastures. Meat-packing industry charges rising gas prices all a ploy by anti-slaughter crowd. (April 1, 2008)

And here's another headline, courtesy of reader EJXD2:
Big Brown sold, to be entered for Epsom Derby.

Not a joke: Trainer Rick Dutrow's comments after Big Brown won the Florida Derby. "I haven't seen one 3-year-old anywhere in the world that can beat Brown," said Dutrow. "And I've watched 'em all run" (Miami Herald). Hm ... in a match race, I might give a fit War Pass the edge.

[Posted April 1, 2008 8:45 AM]
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