Out of Sight ...
"Racing's desperate mission this summer is keeping Smarty Jones alive," writes Stan Bergstein in today's Daily Racing Form. Not alive, of course -- Smarty's doing just fine, but alive in the public mind. It's racing's perpetual challenge. Too bad for trainers and tracks and fans alike -- unlike human stars, horses don't have wardrobe malfunctions, knock down paparazzi, or check themselves into rehab. If only! Think of the headlines.
Tangentially: "The good sports behind Azeri's return" (ESPN).
Posted by JC, Jun 30, 2004 08:20 AM
$2 to Win
Today, Belmont
Race 2: Ace's Cappella (4-1) [Results: Final odds 3.50, paid $9.00 to win]
Posted by JC, Jun 30, 2004 08:00 AM
Up/Down
With wagering on the Preakness up 36.5% from 2003, "the Maryland Jockey Club no longer is considering cutting weeks from the summer racing schedule in an effort to maintain present race purse levels" (Washington Post). Unfortunately for Woodbine, the "sharp decline in wagering on the Queen's Plate Stakes could lead to purse cuts" at the track this year (Thoroughbred Times).
Posted by JC, Jun 30, 2004 07:55 AM
Elsewhere
In my search for other racing blogs, I came across this newly-begun effort, In the Final Strides, from the author of Gambling Blues. The impetus: Jay Cronley at ESPN (scroll down for the entry). "I really believe that there is an 'old guard' of writers for horse racing ... and that while they are very well connected and good at what they do, this sport needs youth," writes Mr. Blues. Agreed.
Posted by JC, Jun 30, 2004 07:50 AM
My Own Private Favorite
Wednesday, Suffolk Downs
Race 7: Ascot Doll (5-1) never looks like much on paper, which is good for the bettors who follow this 10-year-old gelding. His last two wins have been at great prices (18-1, 28-1). As he's dropping a smidge in class from his last two outs to almost the level of his last win, he's not likely to go to post at such high odds this time. Still, he might just warrant a bet here. [Results: Final odds 8.10, ran 6/9. And he looked marvelous doing it. What a horse!]
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5/27/05 Addendum: Ascot Doll was retired this spring with a minor ankle injury, one from which he is expected to recover fully but serious enough that he can't continue racing. During his career, the Doll made 111 starts (13-11-15) and earned $253,518 -- a modest record, to be sure, and one that doesn't reveal the great heart this sweet gelding displayed every time he raced. He'll be missed on the track at Suffolk Downs.
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3/18/06 Update: The Doll is in excellent health, and lolling about the Kentucky Horse Park waiting to be adopted. Let's hope he finds a good home ...
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4/25/06 Happy ending: Ascot Doll left the Secretariat Center late last week for his new home. He has a new owner who's crazy about him, ample pasture, and companions -- really, he couldn't be much better off. I still miss the goofy chestnut a bit in Boston, but I'm happy to know that in his retirement he is safe and loved, thanks to the good work of the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation.
Posted by JC, Jun 29, 2004 09:15 AM
Noted
Saratoga plans for "best racing in the nation" (Blood-Horse); organizers of the Thoroughbred Championship Tour discuss doubling the number of stakes races included in the program, expected to begin in 2005 (Thoroughbred Times).
Posted by JC, Jun 29, 2004 09:10 AM
Try, Try Again
California jockey Elliott Demesme took a nasty spill on Friday during a race at the San Joaquin County Fair in Stockton. "The injury was apparently minor but could have been a lot worse. The imprint of a horseshoe was clearly seen on Demesme's forehead, and he sported a big shiner." Taken to the hospital, he checked himself out and returned to the track that afternoon to ride the rest of his mounts. Track officials, quite sensibly, kept him from riding through the weekend (Daily Racing Form).
Related: Saturday, July 3 is Jockeys Across America, an event being held at more than 40 tracks to raise money for the Macbeth Fund, an organization dedicated to helping injured and disabled jockeys.
Posted by JC, Jun 29, 2004 09:04 AM
Miscellany
More details of Youbet's wireless wagering (Daily Racing Form), Jay Cronley wonders, Who are the stewards? (ESPN), and East European extortionists attack online gaming sites (Boston Globe).
Posted by JC, Jun 28, 2004 08:00 AM
Watching Yet Another ...
Favorite win at Suffolk on Saturday had me wondering: Do favorites win more races at the East Boston track than the oft-cited 30% average? It wasn't the first afternoon I thought I perceived a high percentage of favored ponies win. A quick check of last week's results does show an above average number of races won by favorites (WBF):
| Suffolk Downs | ||||
| Dates & Races | % WBF | Average Odds | Bets | Winnings |
| 6/21: 9 | .67 | 1.50 | $18 | $30 |
| 6/22: 9 | .33 | 1.67 | $18 | $16.02 |
| 6/23: 9 | .44 | 1.33 | $18 | $18.64 |
| 6/26: 11 | .55 | 1.37 | $22 | $28.44 |
| Total: 38 | .50 | 1.45 | $76 | $93.10 (+23%) |
For comparison, Belmont during the same period:
| Belmont Park | ||||
| Dates & Races | % WBF | Average Odds | Bets | Winnings |
| 6/23: 9 | .44 | 1.64 | $18 | $15.84 |
| 6/24: 9 | .22 | 1.38 | $18 | $9.50 |
| 6/25: 9 | .22 | 1.28 | $18 | $9.10 |
| 6/26: 10 | .30 | 1.02 | $20 | $12.10 |
| Total: 37 | .30 | 1.35 | $74 | $46.54 (-37%) |
This is a small sample size. Too small, really, to draw any significant conclusions from, but the results suggest a bettor might have to work a bit harder to find wagers with value at a small track such as Suffolk.
Posted by JC, Jun 27, 2004 01:30 PM
He Could Be a Contender
Saturday, Suffolk Downs
Race 5: Aleyeska (3-1) [Results: Final odds 1.80, ran 5/8]
Posted by JC, Jun 25, 2004 06:05 PM
Smarty Jones Stud Deal Set
The deal: Smarty retires to Kentucky's Three Chimneys Farm, his book size is limited to 110 mares, and he won't be shuttled anywhere. Total value: $48 million (Daily Racing Form).
Posted by JC, Jun 25, 2004 06:00 PM
NTRA Announces New Series
"The National Thoroughbred Racing Association earlier this week unveiled the 'NTRA Two-Year-Old Challenge,' a televised racing series and promotional program for two-year-old Thoroughbred colts and geldings, which debuts this fall and carries a potential bonus of $1.3 million. The Challenge will award $250,000 to the owner of an eligible horse who wins any of seven designated races plus the Breeders' Cup Juvenile." Says NTRA Commissioner Tim Smith, "it puts the spotlight on racing's popular young stars, the two-year-olds. Over time, it will also make it easier to track the hopefuls for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the following year's Triple Crown" (New York Times).
Comment: If the purpose of this new series is to attract new fans to racing, the NTRA seems to be putting the emphasis on the wrong horses. Two-year-olds that look promising may fade under the rigors of training, while others blossom into stars as three- and four-year-olds. Asking a casual fan to get excited about these shaky quantities seems misguided when there are known -- and popular -- horses the masses want to see run. It'd be great if the NTRA would sponsor more events such as match races (there's been wishful mentions of such a race between Smarty Jones and Birdstone, which would be a pretty exciting and highly promotable event) or do more to promote stakes races to the public.
Also in the news: Massachusetts gov. set to approve changes to Suffolk Downs racing schedule (Boston Globe) and jockey Patricia Cooksey retires (Blood-Horse).
Posted by JC, Jun 25, 2004 09:00 AM
An Intriguing Possibility
Today, Belmont
Race 6: Crafty Player (4-1) [Results: Final odds 8.20, ran 4/8]
Posted by JC, Jun 24, 2004 09:10 AM
Slots: PA Yes, CA No
Pennsylvania legislators agree "in principle" (Thoroughbred Times) to legalizing slot machines, while Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger affirms his opposition (ESPN) to a November referendum on racetrack slots in California.
Posted by JC, Jun 24, 2004 09:00 AM
Good News/Bad News
Bay Meadows attendance up, handle down (Daily Racing Form). One thing that pops out in this article is the mention of the Memorial Day crowd, which, at more than 11,000 fans, was the largest single-day crowd at Bay Meadows since 1993. Hm ... the Belmont Stakes crowd this year was also record breaking, and the attendance at Suffolk for the MassCap was the largest ever at more than 17,000. Is there a trend here? Perhaps racing's future isn't as bleak as commonly believed (Boston Globe).
Posted by JC, Jun 23, 2004 08:50 PM
Wi-Wa
The online betting concern Youbet plans to introduce a wireless hand-held device for wagering (ESPN), much like those already in use in Hong Kong and Japan, to the US market next month.
Posted by JC, Jun 23, 2004 07:00 AM
For Consideration
Today, Suffolk Downs
Race 3: Come to Pass (8-1) is returning from a layoff -- not often a good sign -- but he's trained by Ronald Dandy, ridden by Josiah Hampshire, and it looks like the only real competition in this race is Tejano Couture. Certainly worth considering for exotics, if not a win. [Results: Final odds 5.80, ran 5/5. Oops -- Tejano Couture did well ($3.80 to win), but Come to Pass ran dead last. After a long layoff, that's not entirely unexpected, and I'd say he rates a second look in his next race, as he ran quite well through the first half of this one.]
Posted by JC, Jun 23, 2004 06:55 AM
Good Bets
Today, Suffolk Downs
Race 6: Way West Dolly (6-1) [Results: Final odds 2.40, paid $6.80 to win]
Wednesday, Belmont
Race 5: Kitty Knight (3-1) [Scratched]
Posted by JC, Jun 22, 2004 09:07 AM
Same Old
Just another Monday at Suffolk -- small crowd, small pools, quiet in the grandstand. What a change from Saturday, when more than 17,000 fans turned out for the big race, live music played, Japanese journalists wandered the clubhouse, and owners filled the paddock. Of course, it's not just Suffolk -- tracks all over struggle with low and declining attendance (Washington Post), with only a few posting gains (Thoroughbred Times).
Related: Poor Funny Cide (Daily Racing Form). He drew a standing ovation from the grandstand crowd on Saturday and was competitive to the end of the MassCap, but Mike Watchmaker won't cut him any slack for his recent performances.
Posted by JC, Jun 21, 2004 04:50 PM
Offlee Wild Masscap Win
With a morning line value of 15-1, it was something of a surprise to see Offlee Wild's odds settle at 3-1 in yesterday's MassCap. "Somebody knew something" (Boston Globe). Somebody -- make that a lot of somebodies -- knew the horse was ready for a big win. Alas, I was wasn't one of them, having backed third-place finisher The Lady's Groom, but the exciting three-way duel at the end took the sting out of losing.
Posted by JC, Jun 20, 2004 09:20 AM
Yankees Suck!
Here's an interesting idea (Blood-Horse).
Posted by JC, Jun 19, 2004 07:55 AM
Of Memoirs and Horses
The Economist reviews "Blood-Horses," by John Jeremiah Sullivan, and "A Year at the Races," by Jane Smiley. Its correspondent's preference is for "Blood-Horses," which does have some charm, but I thought "A Year at the Races" a better book. Written in Smiley's fluid storytelling style, it's a quirky, satisfying memoir of horse ownership, while "Blood-Horses" too often reads as an earnest research report coupled to a sentimental father-and-son relationship story.
Posted by JC, Jun 19, 2004 07:40 AM
More MassCap
Funny Cide at 8-5 is tomorrow's favorite, but my money will be on The Lady's Groom, at 8-1. He's sure to be the early speed, on a track that's been favoring just that lately.
Elsewhere: "Funny Cide seeks boost in confidence" (Daily Racing Form) and Baffert seeks a check (Boston Globe).
Posted by JC, Jun 18, 2004 02:43 PM
MassCap!
Post positions for this Saturday's $500,000 Grade 2 Massachusetts Handicap at Suffolk Downs have been drawn. Bob Baffert expresses some surprise at the size of the field and Barclay Tagg grouses about Funny Cide's outside post in today's Daily Racing Form. It'll be almost as much fun to see these guys on Saturday as it will be to see their horses.
Posted by JC, Jun 17, 2004 08:40 AM
Handicapping 101
If only I'd had Brad Free's excellent "Handicapping 101" (DRF Press) when I started trying to learn this game. The chapter on form alone elicited many, many aha! moments. My only quibble (and it's one I have with almost all handicapping books) is with his disdain for place and show betting. "Wagering to place and show is futile," Free writes. Oh, but such bets can be part of a sound wagering strategy. When judiciously made, they can pay off quite nicely. Example: In race two at Suffolk Downs on June 15, the favorite, Brickaback, was at 1-1 on the board, despite his listless appearance in the paddock. But Got a Ticket looked lively and had odds of 18-1. A quick perusal of his past performances showed there was no way he would win, and he wasn't a too likely second, but he was a very reasonable third, which is exactly what he ran, paying a lovely $17.80 -- making a show bet in this race a better investment than a win bet on the second favorite, Metfleet, who returned a mere $8.80.
Related: Steven Crist explains why a place bet on Smarty Jones in the Belmont would have made sense (Daily Racing Form).
Posted by JC, Jun 17, 2004 08:30 AM
