Just the Numbers
Kentucky Derby contenders, graphed according to their Derby and prep race BSFs. Big Brown, in blue here, floats above the competition. Click to view larger image.
Listed in order of finish; KD-B=Derby BSF, PR-B=previous BSF, D+/-=difference between KD-B and PR-B.
The final time for the Kentucky Derby was 2:01.82, for which Big Brown was given a Beyer speed figure of 109 (about average for the Derby). Fractions for the race break down into times of :23.30, :23.74, :24.10, :25.42, and :25.26. According to Formulator, Big Brown's splits were :23.57, :23.94, :24.30, :24.75, and :25.26. Hardly spectacular -- no records were threatened -- but good enough for this field.
[Note: Data used in the graph is in the table above (or can be viewed here, along with past Derby BSFs). Line color = finish = horse. The rise and fall of each line follows the rise and fall of each horse's prep campaign and ends with the Derby. Graph goes from left to right (or from Derby BSF back through prep races), as does the data in the table.]
Posted by JC, May 4, 2008 03:45 PM
Comments
Posted by ccb, May 4, 2008 06:31 PM
I am leaning towards the CW that this year's 3yo crop is weak. Hopefully, we get some decent challengers in the Freakness. I think El Gato Malo could hang for at least a little of the stretch run in Baltimore.
Posted by Brown Sound, May 4, 2008 07:37 PM
Nice chart. Pretty colors. Otherwise indecipherable.
Posted by ljk, May 4, 2008 08:43 PM
I reckon Big Brown's times are quite good. The horse was 4 wide for 1 mile, hit the line first and ran further than the other 19.
Posted by Bill Milburn - racingfigures, May 5, 2008 05:26 AM
That's a good point, Bill. Wide throughout, still ran the final quarter faster than any of the others. Denis of Cork, who actually ran quite strong through the second half, closed well into that pace, going the final quarter in :25.40 (Eight Belles went in :25.67 and everyone else closed between :26-:30).
Posted by Jessica, May 5, 2008 09:34 AM
Given that Big Brown was facing a 20+ mph headwind in the stretch (and wasn't drafting off anybody), I reckon his time for the final quarter isn't *too* shabby.