Since a large number of people seem to be landing on Railbird this morning via a Google search for "Kentucky Derby best bets," I offer a few for your consideration:

Most conventionally prepared: Z Fortune. The Steve Asmussen-trained colt comes into Derby with three prep races, a triple-digit speed figure, a second-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, and six career starts.

Most likely to win: Colonel John. Winner of the Sham and the Santa Anita Derby. Worked a bullet five furlongs over the Churchill dirt, has the pedigree, a solid foundation, and a level-headed trainer handling things.

If the track comes up sloppy: Play a Smooth Air-Pyro exacta box. Both have shown an affinity for the wet going, with Smooth Air winning the Hutcheson over such a surface and Pyro earning his highest speed figure in the slop.

Best value: Gayego. The Arkansas Derby winner looks to go to post at double-digit odds, despite speed and consistency. Must be the post position, although that isn't dissuading supporters of likely favorite Big Brown ...

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