- Graphing the Contenders
Following up on my earlier study on the BSF patterns of past Kentucky Derby fields, I graphed the prep race BSF patterns of the top 20 Derby contenders this year:
Click to enlarge.A caveat: Beyer speed figures are merely tools and not necessarily comparable across surfaces, and figures earned solely on turf and synthetics (such as those for Colonel John and Cowboy Cal) indicate little how those horses will perform on dirt. Still, I find the visual representation useful -- it makes clear that Gayego is a real contender, that Tale of Ekati may be improving but is too slow, and suggests that both consistent Eight Belles and Cowboy Cal have more of a chance than their odds might accord.
Over on Thoroughbred Champions, Kennedy posts more in-depth work on the figures, describing six distinct patterns for Derby contenders.
- [Posted by JC, April 29, 2008 10:45 AM]
wow! it'll be interesting to see how this year's winner compares to this study.
personally I use BSFs very sparingly but the point stands about consistency in your previous study... and again it will be interesting to see how this year's winner compares to previous years. follows suit or pushes the envelope? will check back to find out!
- Posted by dana, April 29, 2008 12:55 PMThis is very cool! Great idea.
- Posted by Superfecta, April 29, 2008 1:47 PMI think the graph is backwards in terms of time, right? I would have the most recent speed figure appear on the right.
- Posted by Charley, April 29, 2008 6:19 PMYes, the graph reads from left to right, from the most recent figure back through the race before and the next.
- Posted by Jessica, April 29, 2008 7:28 PM- ---
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