No flashy big figs: That's one conclusion I draw from these graphs, which show the speed figure pattern established by each 2003-2007 Kentucky Derby starter in their 3-year-old prep campaign and their finish in the Derby. (A chart at bottom contains data for 1998-2002.) Consistency is key, ascendant figures help, and any regression must be minor for a horse to succeed in the run for the roses. More in-depth notes on this data, and other factors I'm geekily analyzing in advance of Derby day, in the coming weeks ...

Line color corresponds to finish in the Kentucky Derby

2007: Street Sense, 110

2006: Barbaro, 111

2005: Giacomo, 100

2004: Smarty Jones, 107

2003: Funny Cide, 109

Data for the graphs above, as well as the 1998-2002 fields:

Key: KD-B=Derby BSF, PR-B=previous race BSF, D+/-=difference between the two, 2ND=second previous race, 3RD=third previous race, X=no BSF

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