Owners will announce stud deal on Thursday.

At least, on the Sheets, reports John Scheinman:

I would like to believe that Big Brown is a once-in-a-lifetime horse and cheer him on to a Triple Crown, but what holds me back isn't just a snobbish distaste for his connections, it's the unresolvable question both Patrick, in his post "Big Brown Bonds," and Jeremy Plonk, in his column "Derby Drugs," have written about recently -- how much of the immense talent displayed so far by Big Brown is natural and how much is assisted? The horse is blameless, but there's an asterisk next to his name regardless.

"Tired of death? Tired of protests? Tired of strangers analyzing our sport?"

The situation with Eight Belles has illustrated my disdain for the media.

Unfortunately, most outlets tell the story they want to tell rather than the actual story. The vocal minority gets the soundbytes while anyone who's really in the mix goes ignored.

A story in the Lexington Herald-Leader commented that the Eight Belles tragedy has turned people off the sport. It quoted one woman who lives in Sunbury, Ohio, who said she didn't even watch the Derby because of a previous incident at a three-day eventing event.

How could Eight Belles's death have turned her off if she didn't watch to begin with?

Now, obviously, I know a lot of insiders, but I have plenty of friends who are casual fans. They tune in to the Derby and don't mind a trip to the track or two a year. None of them were turned off. Most said, "That was too bad about the filly, but boy did that winner run a great race!"

I haven't talked to one person who is involved in the business on even a weekly level who has given up on it. Most are asking themselves needed questions, and the incident has brought to light important issues, but the idea that the sport is in (any more) trouble (than it already was) simply isn't true.

I'm going to go on record and predict record handle for the Preakness Stakes (assuming fast and firm, LOL)!

- Trainer Rick Dutrow's transformation from crass cheat to lovable rogue with tragic backstory continues. Having a Kentucky Derby winner sure improves your media coverage.

- The one horse Dutrow claimed to respect in the Preakness is out. Withers winner Harlem Rocker will pass the second leg of the Triple Crown to prep for the Queen's Plate, a more logical spot for the speedy son of Macho Uno. "He wants to play it conservative for now," said trainer Todd Pletcher of owner Frank Stronach's decision (DRF). Recapturetheglory, who came down with fever over the weekend, is also out, which means Big Brown will face a field that may have grown to 13 but could contain no other Derby starters.

- Aided by favored Lethal Heat's stumble out of the gate, Million Dollar Run went from maiden to graded stakes winner in her second start, the Railbird Stakes at Hollywood on Sunday, and she did it most impressively, tracking first half fractions of :22.13 and :44.55, dueling, then drawing away to run the final furlong in :12.32. It's another improbable 3-year-old accomplishment -- coincidence, or do Million Dollar Run, Casino Drive, and Big Brown indicate a trend?

- The best stakes race this weekend happened at Lone Star:

- He acted up in the paddock and ran greenly in the stretch, but there's no quibbling with the raw talent Casino Drive displayed winning the Peter Pan, for which the 3-year-old colt was given a Beyer speed figure of 101. "He was good, but he was not top form," said racing manager Nobutaka Tada after the race. "There's so much [room] for him to improve" (DRF). This spring is really shaping up as the season of young horses accomplishing the improbable ... and like commenter John S., I'm not sure how much I enjoy or understand this sort of racing, however exciting to watch.

- I can't help but read this story as a metaphor:

Dutrow said the only reason the roses weren't draped over the Derby winner was because Big Brown is scared of flowers, although that hardly explains what followed.

- Goodbye, Bay Meadows: "It's like an old friend who's dying," said former track chairman John Harris. "You hope you can spend more time with them before they're gone."

- New! Railbird friend Bill, of RacingFigures.com, has launched a video blog with group and graded stakes replays. Now available for viewing: The Peter Pan, French Guineas, and English Guineas, with more to come ...

... as it was in 1984, when the Queen toured the Bluegrass looking for suitable studs for her broodmares:

I came across the article linked above while searching for more information on Spendthrift, which is the subject of a new book by Mary Marshall, "Great Breeders and Their Methods: Leslie Combs II and Spendthrift Farm." The book suffers from workmanlike prose, but is redeemed by its accidental timeliness, since Marshall recounts in painstaking detail both the history of the legendary farm and the biographies of its major horses such as Raise a Native and Mr. Prospector -- names coming up often lately in the debate over breeding that's erupted following Eight Belles' death galloping out after the Kentucky Derby.

Casino Drive laid over the field in the Peter Pan on Saturday, prompting all sorts of excitement for the Belmont Stakes in four weeks.

Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but where would producing three consecutive Belmont Stakes winners place Better Than Honour in the history of the turf? Greatest bloodstock achievement in history? Certainly, yes, but how about in comparison to Secretariat's 1973 Triple Crown or Woody Stephens's five consecutive Belmont victories?

Keeping the perspective to this year only, if Big Brown wins the Preakness, he could head to Belmont as a wagering favorite but not a fan favorite (a la Sunday Silence).

It will be interesting to read Kent Desormeaux's comments about Casino Drive. I liked the way he split horses turning for home. He looked a bit green in the stretch, but it was his second career start off a long layoff and ship, so the four weeks and added distance should help this one out a lot.

Gotta love the idea of getting 5-to-2 on this one in the Belmont if Big Brown rolls in the Preakness.

Update: Kent Desormeaux said that team Big Brown "has its hands full" while the trainer said that his star pupil was not in top form.

I'll likely be wagering against Big Brown 166 hours from now, but I'll at the very least be cheering for him to head to Belmont for a showdown with Casino Drive.

... of the great racemare (and equally great broodmare) Personal Ensign makes his debut in the fourth at Belmont this afternoon. Listed at 8-1 on the morning line and showing three April works, Baronial, a 3-year-old Kingmambo colt, attempts six furlongs over the Widener turf** for trainer Shug McGaughey. He's an unlikely winner today -- McGaughey takes time with his blueblood stock, and the field includes Bedford Arch, who finished third in his March debut at Gulfstream, as well as 4-year-old Forest of Dreams, returning from a lengthy layoff for trainer Jimmy Jerkens, and the live Just a Warning from Frank Alexander's barn -- but could be one for the watch list, being a 3/4 brother to G1 winners Miner's Mark and and Traditionally.

* I mistakenly called Baronial the last foal, but according to Wikipedia, Personal Ensign's final foal is a 2006 Forest Wildcat colt¹. She was pensioned in September of that year.

** That is, if races don't come off the turf² and the horse isn't scratched. There's a lot of rain in NYC this morning.

¹ Alan reports in the comments that Pedigree Query lists the 2006 colt as dead. Poor baby. So, beautifully bred Baronial is the last foal of his champion dam to race.

² And so the races are, unsurprisingly, given the weather. Only two scratches in race four, but race seven is gutted.

- Trainer Rick Dutrow's confidence, which dipped regarding the Preakness immediately after Big Brown's Derby win, has begun to return:

I might put it at 3-1. As Dutrow said, "if he runs like a 5," the Preakness is no problem. The Belmont is another matter ...

- Of course, the Preakness won't be a breeze, not with the field swelling to nine. Recapturetheglory, fifth in the Derby, will be among the starters, and he'll get a slight equipment change for the race -- trainer Louis Roussel plans to stuff cotton in the colt's ears to block out crowd noise at Pimlico and prevent a reprise of the colt's Derby day bad behavior, reports TDN. Post positions will be drawn on Wednesday.

- No flattery here for an unseasonably tanned and gelled master of the universe: "The spirit of Gordon Gekko is alive and well ... in the suddenly public persona of thoroughbred horse racing's entrepreneur du jour, Michael Iavarone."

- "When Bob Baffert shows up at Lone Star, a good horse race can't be far behind."

- Colonel John, apparently unscathed by his sixth-place Derby finish, could start next in the Swaps at Hollywood.

The Jockey Club, with its usual opacity, has created and announced a Thoroughbred Safety Committee in response to the outcry that followed the death of Eight Belles last Saturday. I'm assuming, since the announcement contains no direct mention of the filly, the Kentucky Derby, or any the criticism that's been leveled at the industry this week.

Press release text below:

Note: Will encourage, not mandate, not regulate.

Meanwhile, amid all this talk of improving safety and the breed, IEAH co-president Michael Iavorone boasted on Wednesday that a stallion deal for lightly-raced, achy-hooved Big Brown is nearing completion, and that the farms bidding for the Derby winner's breeding rights included "one of the most widely recognized stud farms in the world" (Blood-Horse). All the outrage over Eight Belles' unfortunate death, all the urgent discussion about what happened and what should be done differently, all the critics piling on Rick Porter and Larry Jones -- I think we're talking about the wrong horse, the wrong connections. Big Brown represents the racing industry gone awry, not the filly.

Update: The committee will meet for the first time on May 14 and release a timeline and summary of goals afterward.

Related: The committee needs an independent voice, someone not vested in the industry, writes Alex Brown over on the Rail. Good point.